SCENESETTER FOR SOUTHCOM COMMANDER GENERAL DOUGLAS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 000768 SIPDIS FOR GENERAL FRASER FROM AMBASSADOR SIMONS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV OVIP MASS MARR CI SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SOUTHCOM COMMANDER GENERAL DOUGLAS FRASER'S AUGUST 16-20 VISIT TO CHILE Classified By: Ambassador Paul Simons: Reasons 1.4 (B/D). ¶1. (C) I would like to warmly welcome you to Chile on August 16-20. Coming shortly after President Bachelet's meeting with President Obama in Washington on June 23-24, your visit is an excellent opportunity to further strengthen military-to-military relations and to encourage Chile to exercise greater regional leadership. We have had several successful high-level defense and security-related exchanges, and your visit will build on those efforts. ¶2. (C) President Bachelet is keenly interested in forging even stronger bonds with the Obama Administration. Her June visit to Washington reaffirmed our joint efforts to broaden and deepen the equal partnership we enjoy with one of the hemisphere's most successful democracies. The visit offered an opportunity to review regional developments with a trusted partner and deepen cooperation on new issues ranging from renewable energy to assistance for Haiti and Central America. In addition, the Vice President's March visit to Chile powerfully signaled Washington's interest in engaging with Chile and the region. ¶3. (C) Chile continues to promote "the Chilean way" through free trade agreements, closer ties with like-minded countries, and new areas of cooperation (e.g. energy) with traditional allies, including the U.S. Chile is also trying to strengthen relations with its neighbors by promoting concrete, confidence-building measures that focus on the future and avoid rehashing historical differences. The Chilean economy has been hurt by the global financial crisis, but its fundamentals remain strong. The Chilean military's international efforts are consistent with the Chilean government's goals of increasing global trade and ties with Chile's neighbors. Political Backdrop: Concertacion Still in Power after 19 Years -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Chile's center-left coalition government, known as the Concertacion, has been in power continuously since the end of Pinochet's military dictatorship in 1990. Chile's first female president, Michelle Bachelet, is wildly popular, enjoying a 73% approval rating. Under talented Finance Minister Andres Velasco, Chile has responded effectively to the global financial crisis, drawing down on Chile's sovereign wealth funds to finance a $4 billion economic stimulus program featuring new jobs, labor subsidies for youth workers, and targeted tax cuts. Despite her economic success, Bachelet views her legacy primarily in the social sphere. Her initiatives have expanded Chile's privatized pension scheme to vulnerable lower-income populations, offered free day care and basic nutrition for low-income families, expanded access to health care, and strengthened public education. ¶5. (C) Despite President Bachelet's popularity, the Concertacion faces a tight race in December's presidential and parliamentary elections. The President is constitutionally precluded from immediate re-election, and candidates from the two main political coalitions are at a loss as to how to portray themselves. Chileans are tired of 20 years of Concertacion rule, some inefficiency and mismanagement in government, and the same faces dominating Chilean politics. On the other hand, President Bachelet is personally beloved by many Chileans, her policies are generally well-regarded, and Chileans are grateful that the financial crisis has not hit their country harder. ¶6. (C) Billionaire entrepreneur Sebastian Pinera, representing the center-right Alianza coalition, has seen his 10 to 15 point lead over Concertacion candidate Eduardo Frei, a Senator and former President (1994-2000),shrink to single digits. Upstart challenger Marco Enriquez-Ominami, a 36-year old legislator, is bucking the Concertacion establishment to run a surprisingly successful independent candidacy, but it is more style than substance in our estimation. Either of the two leading candidates would be strong partners for the Obama Administration. Economy: Chile's Strong Economy Put to Test by Financial Crisis -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Chile is fortunate to be in a strong economic position to face the global economic downturn. The country traditionally runs budget surpluses (5.2% of GDP in 2008), has virtually no public debt, and has over USD $20 billion in offshore sovereign wealth funds, much of it saved from when prices for copper -- Chile's most important export -- were at record levels. One of world,s most open economies, Chile boasts trade agreements with 59 countries. Thanks to strong economic growth and targeted initiatives, poverty has dropped from 40% of the national population in 1990 to 14% in 2006. Nonetheless, the global economic downturn has been a significant set-back for Chile,s economy, with unemployment rising to double digit levels and the economy set to contract by 1% this year. ¶8. (SBU) The U.S.-Chile Free Trade Agreement is one of the cornerstones of our relationship. The U.S. is Chile's largest trading partner, and Chile is our fifth largest trading partner in Latin America. Bilateral trade has expanded by more than 200% (totaling more than $20 billion in 2008) since the FTA went into effect in 2004. Despite this success, some sticking points remain, notably Chile's failure to implement strong protection for intellectual property rights, as required by our FTA. Chile on the International Stage -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Despite some domestic political missteps, Bachelet performs well on the international stage and has contributed to Chile's rising international stature. Chile is the Vice-Chair of the Partnership for Democratic Governance, is the leader of the Caribbean and Latin American nations group at the UN Human Rights Council, and held the Presidency of the South American Union of Nations (UNASUR) until August 10 of this year. Chile maintains a 500-strong peacekeeping contingent in Haiti, is developing a 1,000-troop joint peacekeeping force with Argentina, and is exploiting areas for collaboration on trilateral initiatives with the United States and other partners throughout the region. Additionally, the GOC sent two planeloads of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip through Syria and donated money to the International Red Cross during the Israeli-Hamas conflict there. This demonstrated Chile,s international commitment to provide aid but also helped appease Chile,s large Palestinian population of 400,000. ¶10. (C) The United States and Chile often work together closely and effectively on regional problems. President Bachelet, acting as president pro tempore of UNASUR, established a moderate tone for President Obama's initial meeting with regional leaders at the Summit of the Americas. In the past three months Chile has played a constructive role on Cuba's conditional re-entry into the OAS, the conflict in Honduras, and deflating the rhetoric surrounding the U.S.-Colombia Defense Cooperation Agreement. Chile is not comfortable with the rhetoric and actions of regional populists such as Venezuelan President Chavez, but has preferred to work quietly behind the scenes to provide a moderating influence rather than publicly dispute their more outlandish statements. ¶11. (C) Even though Chile and the United States see eye-to-eye on many regional and international issues, Bachelet has made it clear that Chile does not blindly follow where the United States leads. In comments last fall during the UN General Assembly, Bachelet said that the U.S. and Chile were "political friends, but not unconditional friends" and criticized the United States for its role in precipitating the financial crisis. She has repeated the latter charge in other public fora as well. The U.S. and Chile: Partners Across the Board -------------- ¶12. (SBU) The U.S. and Chile have forged a vibrant bilateral partnership over the years, with strong institutions in both countries ensuring continued cooperation from the bottom up as well as from the top down. The new Chile-California Partnership for the 21st Century, launched by President Bachelet and Governor Schwarzenegger in June 2008, highlights the economic and geographic similarities between Chile and California and fosters collaboration in agriculture, energy efficiency, environmental resource management, and education. Bilateral military and law enforcement ties are among the very best in the Hemisphere. During President Bachelet's visit to Washington, we signed agreements on energy cooperation and sharing cancer research, which reflect the breadth of our relationship. The United States and Chile also agreed to cooperate jointly in promoting development in other countries in the region; we are still exploring how we will do so, but will likely focus on Haiti, Paraguay and several countries in Central America. Military Cooperation -------------- ¶13. (C) The Bachelet administration is interested in strengthening bilateral military relations as an element in modernizing and normalizing the Chilean military's role in society. Your visit adds to the list of high-level defense officials who have visited Chile over the past two years. This list includes Secretary of Defense Gates, CJCS ADM Mullen, all the Service Chiefs (the U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff will visit the week of August 30 to participate in CONJEFAMER) and innumerable general and flag officer and senior-level OSD visits. Together with the annual Defense Consultative Commission (OSD-Defense Ministry-level talks) and annual Joint Staff Talks (to be held December 2009), these visits have intensified U.S.-Chile dialogues on mutual defense-related issues. In addition, the State Department and Chilean Foreign Ministry are exploring dates for a meeting of the Strategic Policy Consultation Committee in the last quarter of 2009. ¶14. (C) Chile does not have a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with any country. Even without a bilateral agreement granting protections and immunities, SOUTHCOM has proceeded with military exercises and exchanges. Chile ratified the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court in June 2009, but even so, American Servicemen Protection Act (ASPA) provisions should not affect U.S.-Chile military cooperation. Chile does not have an Article 98 agreement with the United States, but the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) allows Chile to participate in IMET, FMF and EDA programs in 2008 and 2009. Chile endorsed the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) and participated in May 2008 PSI exercises. Chile is considering joining the PSI Operational Experts Group (OEG) but is unlikely to reach a decision before the 2009 elections. In April 2009, the Chilean Under Secretary of War and the Governor of Texas signed an agreement to form a State Partnership Program (SPP),paving the way for Defense Ministry and military services to work with Texas National Guard units. Peacekeeping -------------- ¶15. (C) Chile self-deployed a battalion to Haiti on 48-hours notice in February 2004. A February 2009 visit by then-Minister of Defense Goni and CHOD Lt Gen Ewing to Haiti focused on building Haitian civilian law enforcement and security capabilities. In May 2009, Chile's Congress voted to extend Chile's 500-plus peacekeeping troops for one more year, to June 2010. Chile has also contributed small contingents to UN missions in Cyprus, Bosnia and Kosovo. Chile and Argentina have established a joint peacekeeping battalion as a standby unit for United Nations PKOs, although, it is not expected to be operational until 2010. Military Sales and Transfers -------------- ¶16. (C) Military sales and transfers have been a key area of increased military cooperation between the United States and Chile. Chile has turned to the United States as a primary source of equipment, technology and training to modernize it military, using Foreign Military Sales (FMS),Foreign Commercial Sales (FCS) and Excess Defense Article (EDA) programs. Ten new Block 52 F-16 fighter aircraft (delivered in 2007-2008) were the first major purchase of U.S. equipment since 1976, when the United State cut-off of military sales during the Pinochet era. Since then, the Chilean Military has purchased over $130 million in military materiel from the United States, bringing the total value of FMS cases over the past 20 years to nearly $1 billion. ¶17. (SBU) The Chilean Armed Forces are negotiating purchases of an additional $1 billion in equipment and weapon systems in the next 12-24 months. Most Chilean military purchases are funded through a law requiring that 10 percent of earnings from the state-owned copper company, CODELCO, be set aside for the Chilean Armed Forces for military acquisitions. The Armed Forces reportedly receive an average of $740 million per year for acquisitions. The Bachelet administration is discussing new legislation to rescind the &Copper Law8, but before submitting any such proposal the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Defense will need to reach agreement on an alternative multi-year funding system. SIMONS