CONCERTACION INSIDER REVEALS INTEREST IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 000734 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2018 TAGS: PREL PBTS PGOV CI BR CU PE SUBJECT: CONCERTACION INSIDER REVEALS INTEREST IN CHILE-PERU BORDER SETTLEMENT, CUBAN GOALS, AND SERRA'S CHILE CONNECTION Classified By: Ambassador Paul E. Simons for reason 1.4 (b). ¶1. (C) Summary: Concertacion insider and former government minister Enrique Correa reported that Chile's Foreign Minister would like to work quietly with Peru to resolve the maritime border dispute before the Garcia administration leaves office. Cuba is keenly interested in increasing the ability of U.S. visitors to travel to the island, but not interested in joining the OAS, Correa said. Correa predicted a Concertacion win in the second round of presidential elections and praised Mariano Fernandez as a more regionally engaged Foreign Minister than his predecessor. Brazilian presidential candidate Jose Serra has close ties to the Concertacion which could bode well for Chile-Brazil relations should both Serra and Frei win their respective elections. End Summary. Chile Seeks to Resolve Border Dispute Behind the Scenes -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) During a July 28 lunch with the Ambassador, progressive politico Enrique Correa asserted that senior Chilean officials -- including Foreign Minister Mariano Fernandez -- are interested in conducting quiet negotiations with Peru to resolve the maritime border dispute separately from the Hague case. Both Foreign Minister Fernandez and Concertacion leaders are concerned that the border issue could become inflamed if nationalist Ollanta Humala is elected president in 2011. Correa indicated that Chilean leaders would be willing to make (unspecified) compromises about their border claims in order to resolve the issue well in advance of a possible Humala presidency. Cuba Wants More U.S. Visitors -------------- ¶3. (C) Correa reported on private conversations he held with Cuban leaders Carlos Lage and Felipe Perez-Roque before they were removed from their positions in March 2009. According to Lage and Perez-Roque, Cuban leadership is very interested in strengthening bilateral relations with the U.S. and particularly in further broadening the ability of all U.S. citizens to visit Cuba (not just those of Cuban origin), which leaders see as an effective way to break down barriers between the two countries. In contrast, the Cuban elite have little interest in rejoining the OAS. Correa said he passed this information to OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza. Predictions of Frei Electoral Success -------------- ¶4. (C) Turning to domestic politics, Correa predicted that Concertacion candidate Eduardo Frei will win "easily" in the second round of presidential voting. Correa believes that virtually all of the supporters of leftist candidate Marco Enriquez-Ominami will support Frei in the second round, saying that these supporters are "fundamentally Concertacion." The traditional Concertacion majority will re-emerge in the second round, he stated. ¶5. (C) Correa predicted problems for center-right candidate Sebastian Pinera, saying that he is likely to stumble between now and the election and suggesting that enthusiasm for his candidacy might wane, largely because of character issues. In contrast, Frei's reputation for rectitude, solidity, and honesty will serve him well. New Foreign Minister an Improvement -------------- ¶6. (C) Correa believes that the change in Foreign Ministry leadership from Alejandro Foxley to Mariano Fernandez has been extremely positive for Chile. Foxley had little interest in Chile's role in the region and never visited Argentina, for example. In contrast, Fernandez is more engaged in regional issues and is committed to active diplomacy in the Western Hemisphere, particularly in Paraguay, Argentina, and Brazil. Fernandez is also much closer to President Bachelet than Foxley is. Brazilian Presidential Candidate Has Ties to Chile -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Brazilian presidential candidate Jose Serra has very close ties to the Concertacion, Correa said. Serra lived in Chile from 1967 until 1973, has a Chilean wife, and worked directly for Fernando Flores, who served as Salvador Allende's Economic Minister. In the aftermath of the September 11, 1973 coup d'etat, Serra was imprisoned in Chile's National Stadium along with thousands of others. He reportedly talked his way out of the stadium the next day and immediately returned to Brazil. Frei and Serra could help deepen the very promising Chilean-Brazilian bilateral relationship if both men are elected president of their respective countries. ¶8. (C) Comment: Correa is a well-connected and well-respected kingmaker whose insights warrant attention. Reports of possible interest in a Chilean-Peruvian settlement are particularly surprising given that Chilean officials feel that their case is strong and is likely to prevail at the International Court of Justice. If indeed Chileans are willing to make concessions in order to resolve the dispute more quickly, this suggests that they are quite uneasy about the possibility of a Humala presidency. End Comment. SIMONS