SANTIAGO B1/B2 VALIDATION STUDY CONFIRMS LOW OVERSTAY RATE

UNCLAS SANTIAGO 000611 SIPDIS DEPT for CA/FPP - John Long; Pass to DHS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KFRD CVIS CMGT CI SUBJECT: SANTIAGO B1/B2 VALIDATION STUDY CONFIRMS LOW OVERSTAY RATE Ref: 09 SANTIAGO 538 Summary ¶1. Santiago's Fraud Prevention Unit (FPU) conducted a validation study of all 46,705 B1/B2 tourist/business visa applicants from CY ¶2008. The results confirm a low overstay rate of 1%, despite an 11% increase in applications over the previous year. Post's average refusal rate of 9% and an active FPU appear to be contributing factors to this low overstay rate. Background ¶2. In CY 2008, Embassy Santiago adjudicated a total of 46,705 B1/B2 visas, an increase of 11% over 2007. As a democratic country with a developing free-market economy, Chile is a South American nation with a sizeable middle class and a per capita GDP of $14,900 in ¶2008. Since the U.S. - Chile Free Trade Agreement took effect in January 2004, there has been a steady increase in Chileans and foreign residents in Chile seeking to travel to the U.S. for tourism and business. Post has seen little migratory "pull" to the United States relative to other countries in the region, as Chileans have enjoyed relative economic prosperity and don't have the same historical immigration ties. Post is not aware of any previous studies documenting the overstay rate of B1/B2 visas issued in Santiago. Methodology ¶3. The FPU used the Consular Consolidated Databases (CCD) to generate a Microsoft Excel list of all B1/B2 visas issued from January 1 through December 31, 2008. As it was nearly impossible to differentiate between the various types of B1 and B2-only visas issued, post evaluated the combined B1/B2 classification only. The FPU used the random number generator in Excel to randomly select 1,000 B1/B2 visas issued in 2008. Results ¶4. FPU sent these lists to CA/FPP for batch checks on DHS's Arrival and Departure Information System (ADIS) and the Automated Targeting System (ATS). Of the random sample of 1,000, post confirmed a 1% overstay rate for B1/B2 visas issued in 2008. The locally employed FPU investigator took the additional step of contacting most of the applicants identified as overstays by telephone or email. Some cases were inconclusive, as the applicants were unreachable by telephone or email. The FPU found that although ADIS and ATS did not report the return for some applicants, there were applicants who had returned within the allowed time. In several other instances, applicants' family members or former employers told us that the applicant had moved to the U.S. to find work or to get married, and had not returned to Chile. Commentary ¶5. Santiago's average B1/B2 refusal rate of 9% and alert Consular officers appear to be contributing factors to the low 1% overstay rate in 2008. Though 11% more B1/B2 applicants applied this year, consular officers' vigilance for intending immigrants resulted in the low overstay rate. Nonetheless, a 1% rate translates into approximately 468 B1/B2 applicants from Chile last year that overstayed their visas. Post will take this information into consideration as Consular officers continue to meet the expected increase in demand for B1/B2 visas. ¶6. Post has been able to complete two successive validation studies in a relatively short time period due to the availability of the ADIS system and wishes to thank the Bureau of Consular Affairs and DHS for making this system available to posts to conduct validation studies. Special thanks to William Muller in CA/FPP for liaison assistance with processing the batch ADIS checks. SIMONS