FREI ADVISORS PREDICT A SECOND ROUND VICTORY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 000367 SIPDIS FOR WHA/BSC, INR/IAA E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV CI SUBJECT: FREI ADVISORS PREDICT A SECOND ROUND VICTORY Classified By: Ambassador Paul Simons for reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Two key advisors to Eduardo Frei recently told the Ambassador that they expect the Concertacion candidate will win the upcoming Presidential election in a second round run-off against Alianza candidate Sebastian Pinera. The advisors agreed that third party candidates will stay in the race through the first round, preventing Frei from obtaining a majority. Belisario Velasco, a strategic advisor to Frei, speculated that Pinera's support has already peaked. Pablo Halpern, Frei's media and communication advisor, predicted negative campaigning from both candidates. Velasco highlighted education, energy, and the environment as key issues, but Halpern disagreed, indicating the campaign will be about character and business ethics. END SUMMARY RELIEVED AND READY TO GO -------------- ¶2. (C) In an April 13 meeting with the Ambassador, Frei Presidential advisor Belisario Velasco expressed relief at Frei's success in the April 5 primary election and the Concertacion having finally unified behind him. Jose Antonio Gomez, of the Radical Party (PRSD),was the "smallest Concertacion rival but the hardest to defeat," he quipped, after recounting how Soledad Alvear, Ricardo Lagos, and Jose Miguel Insulza -- all potential Concertacion candidates with far broader support than Gomez -- withdrew from the competition months ago. ¶3. (C) Now that Frei is the official Concertacion candidate, the progressive coalition can turn its attention to defeating their nautral adversary, Alianza candidate Sebastian Pinera. The lack of a single Concertacion candidate has meant that Pinera has been "running without competition for the last four years," which explains why he has done so well in polls, Velasco said. Pinera's support -- currently at 48 percent -- has hit a ceiling, Velasco opined, and Frei's support will rise now that he is the sole Concertacion candidate. (Note: Support for Frei has risen sharply in recent polls, cutting the difference to a single digit. End Note.) ¶4. (C) In a separate meeting on April 15, Frei's media and communication advisor Pablo Halpern told the Ambassador the upcoming campaign will be tough but winnable. He argued that Frei has a "teflon" mindset that is well suited for a long campaign, while Pinera is "psychologically weak" and mistake prone, highlighting Pinera's ill-timed and poorly received visit to the family of a murder victim earlier this week. Halpern acknowledged that the Concertacion is unlikely to attract new voters, but confidently declared that this election will be decided by older voters. HANDICAPPING THE RACE: FREI IN THE SECOND ROUND -------------- -- ¶5. (C) Halpern and Velasco both predicted a second round victory for Frei. The advisors believe that third party candidates -- including former Socialist Party member Jorge Arrate, Humanist Tomas Hirsch, and Socialist Marco Enriquez-Ominami (who remains within the Concertacion despite announcing his intention to run for president himself) -- will do well in the first round of the election, preventing Frei from obtaining a majority. Velasco handicapped first round results that would give Pinera a plurality (46-47 percent),with Frei in second place (38-40 percent),and a strong minor party candidate showing (a total of 9 percent for all candidates, with the still-to-be determined Communist candidate likely receiving 6 percent). Frei will win in the second round, Velasco said, when the minor party candidates are eliminated and they pledge their support to the Concertacion candidate. CONCERTACION STRATEGY, KEY ISSUES, AND BACHELET'S INFLUENCE -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Turning to campaign strategy, Halpern painted a picture of negative campaigning from both sides. He admitted the Concertaction will likely be more negative, but only because it has more ammunition, citing character and business ethics as central election issues. Velasco differed and identified education, energy, and environmental issues, including support for controversial hydroelectric development in southern Chile, as important topics. While both candidates are universally regarded as uncharasmatic, Frei is at least credible, according to Halpern. He said "the true enemy is within," referring to the chaotic mix of Concertacion political parties, the campaign's Executive Team, and the technical advisors from the progressive policy network Oceanos Azules that will compete for attention during the campaign. Halpern emphasized the need for the Concertacion to maintain discipline and avoid mistakes. ¶7. (C) Velasco seemed frustrated by Alianza accusations that Bachelet is somehow interfering in the campaign, insisting that she is governing effectively and is on track to complete all of the social commitments she made during her campaign. According to Velasco, Bachelet's popularity and effective leadership is helping Frei, not inappropriate campaign involvement. While Velasco expects Bachelet's popularity to remain high, Halpern forsees a drop in the next 2-3 months as unemployment reaches double digits and dissatisfaction with the economy increases. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) The Concertacion seems content to rely on tried-and-true methods to win the election. Frei will look to avoid mistakes through the first round of voting, then count on support from third party voters to put him over the top in the run-off. The recipe has worked in the past, and Frei's advisors appear confident it can work again. END COMMENT. BIO NOTES -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Belisario Velasco is the second cousin of Finance Minister Andres Velasco. Velasco said that he and new Foreign Minister Mariano Fernandez have been friends for more than 40 years, including working together during the Pinochet years when Velasco lived in Chile and Fernandez was in exile. Fernandez and Velasco were also both sub-secretaries during Frei's first presidential administration. Pablo Halpern is married to Andrea Lagos, the press attache at the Chilean Embassy in Washington. SIMONS