CONCERTACION CHALLENGER GOMEZ MAKES A NAME FOR

UNCLAS SANTIAGO 000304 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV SENV ECON CI SUBJECT: CONCERTACION CHALLENGER GOMEZ MAKES A NAME FOR HIMSELF, THOUGH FREI STILL FAR AHEAD ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Through tireless old-fashioned campaigning and an extensive internet effort, upstart presidential contender Jose Antonio Gomez has emerged as a persistent progressive leader and irritant to Concertacion front runner Eduardo Frei. Gomez, who is a senator and president of the Radical Social Democrat (PRSD) party, has little chance of besting Frei in this weekend's primary in the O'Higgins and Maule regions, but has succeeded in becoming a recognized political figure, positioning himself well for a possible run in 2014. Meanwhile, the combination of expected low turnout and Gomez's aggressive campaign could give the dark horse a substantial minority of the vote, bolstering Alianza's efforts to portray Frei as the tired candidate of a tired coalition. End Summary. Gomez Gains Concertacion Stalwart Slow to Engage -------------- --- ¶2. (SBU) Pro-Frei Concertacion leaders in Rancagua, the capital of the O'Higgins (VI) region, told Poloff March 30 they were frustrated that their national party leadership had been slow to engage in the primary process. During the past two months, PRSD Senator and former Justice Minister Jose Antonio Gomez tirelessly campaigned in the O'Higgins (VI) and Maule (VII) regions. His efforts have included substantial press work, an Obama-style internet marketing blitz with an online TV station and text messaging, and many personal appearances in the region. Meanwhile, national leaders of the other Concertacion parties--the Christian Democrats (DC), the Party for Democracy (PPD),and the Socialists (PS)--expected that Gomez would succumb to pressure to bow out of the race, and so did not take primary campaigning seriously. ¶3. (SBU) Mario Quijada, DC regional president, complained that he and his fellow local Concertacion leaders had been working very hard in February campaigning for Frei, while national level leaders were on vacation. (Comment: The Chilean press reported that Frei himself spent February largely on vacation, while both Gomez and Alianza candidate Sebastian Pinera spent their summer "vacations" on the campaign trail. End Comment.) Others echoed this frustration, with the Intendente Hector Huenchullan (DC) saying in a separate conversation that he regarded January, February, and March as "lost time" that the DC, PPD, and PS had ceded to the PRSD. ¶4. (SBU) Gomez took advantage of that inattention to make substantial inroads in the region. Although still trailing far behind Frei, Gomez has gained impressive ground in the last few months. In December, he was considered such a long shot that--despite being a declared candidate, sitting senator, and president of his party--he was not even included in polls. By early March, in a poll measuring voting intentions during the Concertacion primary, he had reached 17.2% support vs. Frei's 55%. After his intense campaign work in the sixth and seventh regions in the past few weeks, his share of the vote could be even higher. Frei and Gomez Face Off in March 30 Debate -------------- ¶5. (U) On March 30, Eduardo Frei and Jose Antonio Gomez engaged in their first (and likely only) public debate, broadcast in the O'Higgins and Maule regions. Both candidates expressed admiration for the current administration and voiced support for strengthening the role of the state in response to the global financial crisis. A telephone poll revealed that 49% of those interviewed judged Frei to have emerged victorious, outperforming Gomez in the discussion of employment, education, the economy, and regional issues. Gomez was better-received only on value-laden issues like abortion. In a surprising move, Frei announced his support for legalizing "therapeutic abortion", a move some see as a political maneuver designed to appease progressive voters. (Note: "Therapeutic abortion" refers to procedures performed when the life or health of the mother or fetus are in danger. All abortions are currently illegal in Chile. End Note.) ¶6. (U) On the subject of the environment, Frei demanded the diversification of energy sources, while Gomez was careful to point out that diversification, while necessary, must not be undertaken at the expense of Chile's fragile ecosystems. Both candidates also tackled the role of unregulated big business in the current economic downturn. Gomez took a particularly strong position, calling for the harsh punishment of executives and the revocation of business licenses. Frei and Gomez agreed on the necessity of expanding Chile's commitment to higher education, with Frei making specific mention of the need for world class technology education centers. What Comes Next -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Concertacion leaders in the O'Higgins region and across the country are eager for Gomez--whom they see as an irritant to the all-but-annointed Concertacion candidate Frei--to officially be out of the running. Cecilia Villalobos, the PPD Regional Vice President, told Poloff that the distraction of Gomez and two Concertacion candidates is hurting Frei in the polls. For Villalobos, Gomez's candidacy, as well as the renegade candidacy of Socialist parliamentarian Marco Enriquez-Ominami and the November 2008 decision of Alejandro Navarro to leave the Socialists to form his own leftist party, highlights fractures in the Concertacion coalition. ¶8. (SBU) Both Frei and Gomez supporters are optimistic that their candidates would win a general election against Frei. Villalobos asserted that "global conditions" favor the Concertacion, as Chileans support the progressive response to the financial crisis, including a bigger role for the state. For his part, PRSD Regional Secretary Gabriel Diaz is confident that if Gomez can win the primary, he'll win the general election, highlighting that surveys show that very few voters reject him, while both Pinera and Frei have relatively high rejection rates. Gomez Catapulting Himself onto the Political Stage -------------- -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Analysts are still guessing at the reasons behind Gomez's seemingly hopeless but unrelenting campaign. While at first it seemed likely that his persistence was a bargaining chip to be traded for more PRSD spots on the parliamentary ballot in December's elections, now his motivations seem more personal. Gomez, who came from way behind to defeat Frei's sister, Carmen Frei, in a race for a northern Chile Senate seat in 2005, seems to be positioning himself as a presidential contender in 2014. If so, he has been spectacularly successful in increasing his name recognition and emerging as a political player. As his O'Higgins region party secretary told us, "He has already won." Comment -------------- ¶10. (SBU) While it is very unlikely that Gomez would best Frei in the April 5 primary, he may well be more successful than many Concertacionistas expect. Gomez's impressive internet and ground campaign may bring in a critical mass of PRSD members as well as independents and supporters from other Concertacion parties. And in an election where total turn out is likely to be less than 10% (reftel),even a relatively small number of Gomez votes could have a significant impact. SIMONS