CHILE'S PRESIDENTIAL RACE: PINERA STILL LEADING, FREI

UNCLAS SANTIAGO 000003 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ELAB SOCI ECON CI SUBJECT: CHILE'S PRESIDENTIAL RACE: PINERA STILL LEADING, FREI GAINS, INSULZA LOSES GROUND IN LATEST POLLS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The latest poll on possible presidential candidates shows that former president Eduardo Frei is very competitive with OAS SecGen Jose Miguel Insulza to receive the nod as the Concertacion candidate. But both trail opposition leader Sebastian Pinera by a sizeable margin, although Frei has substantially narrowed this lead. Insulza continues to appear indecisive about a potential presidential run and has lost ground in hypothetical match-ups against Pinera; some are calling for him to officially withdraw from the race. The timing of the poll--which was largely conducted before Concertacion leader and former president Ricardo Lagos withdrew from the race--raises some doubt on the currency of the results. End Summary. Frei Advances, Insulza Flounders; Pinera Leads the Field -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) In the Center for Public Studies (CEP) much anticipated poll on Chile's presidential candidates, RN candidate and former Senator Sebastian Pinera came out as the clear front-runner over both DC candidate former President Eduardo Frei and potential Socialist candidate OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza. However, Frei's position in a face-off against Pinera has improved, while Insulza has grown weaker since the last CEP poll in June/July 2008. -- Forty-four percent of registered voters questioned in the poll chose Pinera as their presidential pick in a hypothetical final run-off against Frei, who was supported by 34 percent of those polled. This 10 point lead tightens the 15 point difference from the last poll, taken in June/July. In a run-off between Pinera and Insulza, Pinera's 21 point lead (49 percent for Pinera vs. 28 percent for Insulza) is a substantial 7 point increase since the previous poll. -- Poll participants rated the candidates based on the question, "Is this candidate prepared to be the President of Chile?" with 62 percent of voters declaring that Pinera was ready, compared to 58 percent for Lagos, 56 percent for Frei, and 38 percent for Insulza. Pinera leads when judged on attributes such as ability to solve problems, trustworthiness, ability to unite the country, and self-confidence. However, when judged on sincerity Pinera falls behind Frei who ranks above Insulza on all of these attributes. -- When asked "Who should be the next President of Chile?" 32 percent of registered voters questioned named Pinera, 14 percent Lagos, 7 percent Insulza, and 7 percent Frei. Compared to poll results from June/July, there was little movement except that Frei jumped significantly, from 3 to 7 percent. Winners of Possible Concertacion Primary -------------- -------------- ¶3. (U) Thirty-seven percent of registered voters questioned about a Concertacion primary would support Frei, placing him nine points ahead of Insulza. However, when evaluating responses by only self-identified Concertacionistas, Insulza and Frei are in a statistical dead heat (43 percent for Insulza vs. 42 percent for Frei). The Big Asterisk on the Poll: The Lagos Factor -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) Ricardo Lagos' withdrawal from the presidential race during the CEP polling creates some doubt about the significance of the poll results--particularly given Lagos' strong showing. CEP conducted the survey between November 19 and December 11, completing 82 percent of the polling before former President Ricardo Lagos announced his departure from the race on December 4. Frei was not chosen as the official DC party candidate until December 13, after CEP finished polling. Former Foreign Minister and Insulza supporter Juan Gabriel Valdes publicly criticized CEP for continuing with the poll after Lagos' departure. ¶5. (U) Lagos' departure from the presidential race is particularly significant given that he was the Concertacion leader in many key poll metrics. When asked about a possible Concertacion primary among Lagos, Frei, Insulza, Soledad Alvear, and current president Bachelet, a plurality--23 percent--supported Lagos. It is unclear who these Lagos supporters would back now that their preferred candidate is no longer running, although the majority of commentators suggest they would more likely back Insulza who is ideologically closer to Lagos. In addition, Lagos actually had the best performance in a match up against Pinera--trailing the Alianza candidate by 8 percentage points (44 for Pinera vs. 36 for Lagos) vs. 10 points for Frei (44 to 34) and 21 for Insulza (49 to 28). Conservative Analyst: Insulza's Hopes are "Buried" -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Axel Buchheister, analyst with the conservative think tank Libertad y Desarollo, told Poloff December 31 that Insulza's political hopes are "buried" after the release of the poll results, and that he believes Insulza may announce his withdrawal from the race in the coming days. Buchheister suggested that Insulza's support dropped in several key metrics--including voter views of Insulza's strengths in particular areas, and an increase (to 54 percent) of the number of people who would "never" vote for him--in part due to his indecision about his presidential candidacy. UDI Deputy (and former SecGen of the party) Dario Paya phoned E/Pol Counselor the day before the poll was released to say that all signals he was receiving pointed to Frei being the Concertacion candidate. ¶7. (SBU) While some may say that Pinera is stagnating, Buchheister claims instead that he is solidifying his support. He believes that UDI president Juan Antonio Coloma's observation that Alianza now has the best chance in its history to win the presidency is truer than ever. The electorate is yearning for change and a capacity to deal with the financial crisis. In this environment, Buchheister asserted, the successful tycoon will triumph over Eduardo Frei, who as president presided over Chile's economic struggles during the Asian financial crisis from 1997 to 2000. Liberal Analyst: Frei is Growing Stronger -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Frei is showing a "slow but persistent increase in support," according to Maria de los Angeles Fernandez, director of the Socialist party-affiliated Chile 21 think tank. In a conversation with Poloff December 31, Fernandez said she was impressed by Frei and puzzled by Insulza's drop. She noted that the poll results were less significant given that they were conducted before Ricardo Lagos dropped out, but that they nonetheless showed that a large number of Chileans could support Frei in the next election. Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Insulza's indecision is not helping his electoral chances, and he would be wise to make a final decision about his candidacy now. Press over the last two days has focused increasingly on a Pinera-Frei match, with both men tossing barbs at each other, as if Insulza were no longer a factor. And while Insulza clearly trails in a match up with Pinera, his more immediate concern should be that he is now in a statistical dead heat with Frei for support during a hypothetical Concertacion primary. Insulza faces an uphill battle if he wishes to run for office, and his goal will only become further away the longer his intentions are unclear. END COMMENT.