EL SALVADOR: COUNTRY CONDITIONS AS THEY RELATE TO

S E C R E T SAN SALVADOR 000970

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR PRM/PIM AND WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2019
TAGS: PHUM PREF SMIG ES
SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR: COUNTRY CONDITIONS AS THEY RELATE TO
TEMPORARY PROTECTED STATUS (TPS)

REF: STATE 101826

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, for reasons 1.4 (b),(c),and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Current infrastructure, economic, and
political conditions in El Salvador would not allow the
country to absorb, in an orderly manner, the return of the
258,000 Salvadoran beneficiaries of Temporary Protected
Status (TPS) living in the United States. El Salvador has
not finished reconstructing infrastructure damaged by the two
severe earthquakes which struck the country in 2001, and a
series of earthquakes that struck western El Salvador in 2006
displaced an additional 2,000 families. The transportation,
housing, education, and health sectors continue to suffer,
and the lingering effects of these disasters seriously limit
El Salvador's ability to absorb a large number of potential
returnees. El Salvador has also seen a surge in the number
of dengue cases and has been hit by the H1N1 virus, which has
placed a strain on the public health system. Recessionary
economic conditions, as well as the potential for generating
adverse political and diplomatic consequences, argue in favor
of extending TPS benefits to El Salvador. End summary.


2. (SBU) El Salvador's ability to absorb 258,000 potential
returnees is complicated by the fact that recovery from the
devastating earthquakes of 2001 is not yet complete. Of the
276,000 homes destroyed, only about half have been rebuilt
with the assistance of programs sponsored by USAID, other
international donors, and the Salvadoran government (GOES).
While the USAID programs were completed in 2006, other donor
efforts have lagged. While most of the reconstruction work
on the seven main hospitals will not be completed until 2010,
there is still no estimate on when ongoing reconstruction of
the maternity hospital will be completed. Other related
public works projects remain incomplete as well.
Infrastructure recovery was further set back by the October
2005 landfall of Tropical Storm Stan, which brought
widespread flooding, loss of homes, and destruction of crops
and infrastructure across El Salvador. An eruption of the
Santa Ana volcano in the same month also caused localized
destruction of communities and crops in the surrounding
areas. A series of earthquakes that hit western El Salvador
in late 2006 resulted in the displacement of an additional
2,000 families whose homes were destroyed.


3. (SBU) As of the end of September, the GOES had reported
763 confirmed cases of H1N1, and 3633 cases of dengue.
Assuming the current health situation continues into 2010, an
influx of TPS returnees would further strain already
overburdened health and education sectors in El Salvador's
rural communities. Although the Millennium Challenge
Corporation (MCC) will build new primary and secondary roads
in the impoverished northern corridor of El Salvador, these
roads will not be completed for another two years or more.


4. (SBU) El Salvador,s economy entered recession in late
2008 and, according to official projections, will contract by
2.5 percent in 2009, and zero growth is projected for 2010.
Remittances, which represent about 18 percent of the economy,
are projected to fall by 10 percent for 2009. While global
prices have fallen from their 2008 peaks, as a net importer
El Salvador remains vulnerable to oil and food price shocks.
The cost of the rural &basic basket8 of food remains above
the rural minimum wage. The Salvadoran economy depends
heavily on the U.S. economy and is unlikely to recover until
6 to 12 months after the U.S. does.


5. (SBU) The U.S. is helping to accelerate growth through
implementation of CAFTA-DR, USAID programs (trade, labor, and
environmental capacity-building),and a USD 461 million MCC
compact agreement. The success of these efforts, however, is
compromised by general economic conditions. In light of the
continued deterioration in Salvadoran economic prospects, the
country is ill-prepared to receive an influx of returning
migrants should TPS not be extended.


6. (SBU) Compounding the economic situation, El Salvador
continues to suffer through a public security crisis that
threatens to undermine sustained development and confidence
in democratic governance. The country faces increasing levels
of violent crime, much of it generated by transnational
street gangs that engage in extortion, car theft, sale of
counterfeit and stolen goods, and street-level drug
distribution. El Salvador's murder rate- the highest in the
western hemisphere - discourages foreign investment and
curtails economic growth. Salvadoran press reported that as
of September 28, the number of murders in 2009 (3,182) had
already exceeded the 2008 total (3,179). This represents an
annualized total of 4,286 killings if the current rate holds,

or almost 12 per day in 2009 compared to a rate of nearly 9
per day in 2008.


7. (SBU) The cost of crime to the Salvadoran economy is
estimated at about 14 percent of GDP. Perhaps more
importantly, spiraling crime rates cause citizens to lose
faith in the ability of the police, the judiciary, and
traditional political parties to deliver on promises of
improved public security. El Salvador's National Civilian
Police (PNC),although well-intentioned, are undermanned,
under-financed, and hard-pressed to deal with the massive
scale of criminal violence besetting Salvadoran society. The
Salvadoran judiciary, the national prison system, and the
social service agencies tasked with counseling at-risk youth
and rehabilitating adult offenders are similarly overwhelmed
by their respective caseloads. Adding upwards of 250,000
likely unemployed returnees to an already volatile public
security situation in a country facing sustained economic
difficulties would cause hardships and strains to the system.


8. (S/NF) Embassy considers that there are foreign policy and
political consequences that would flow from a cancellation of
TPS for Salvadoran nationals. President Funes, a pro-U.S.
moderate, has said that extension of TPS is a top priority in
his relationship with the USG. He told Secretary Clinton on
June 1 that the best option would be to include TPS
beneficiaries in a larger immigration reform option. Funes
has risked his governing coalition with the leftist FMLN over
relations with the U.S. Cancelling TPS would pull the rug
out from under Funes.
BLAU