SALVADORAN ELECTIONS: STRONG FMLN PERFORMANCE;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000060 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL ES SUBJECT: SALVADORAN ELECTIONS: STRONG FMLN PERFORMANCE; ARENA WINS SAN SALVADOR MAYOR REF: A. SAN SALVADOR 00002 ¶B. SAN SALVADOR 00045 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. Summary: While (conservative, pro-U.S.) ARENA won the Sunday's headline race for San Salvador city hall, taking it from the FMLN after 12 years, it was otherwise a good day for the (left-wing) FMLN. Based on current returns (75 percent) that may fluctuate significantly before final numbers are in, the FMLN increased its seats in the Assembly from 32 to 35. ARENA dropped from 34 to 32. Current figures show the (right-wing) PCN, current ARENA partner, with 11, the (center-right, pro-U.S.) PDC 5, and (left-wing) CD (allied with FMLN) with 1. (center-left) FDR received no deputies. If this holds, the PCN will be able to form a majority in the 84-seat assembly by allying with either ARENA or the FMLN. The PCN has been allied with ARENA in the outgoing Assembly but has been holding talks with the FMLN. Aside from the San Salvador result, the FMLN made substantial municipal gains. Current returns give ARENA between 108 and 118 municipalities, down from 147, 77 to 86 for the FMLN (up from 59),28 to 35 for the PCN (down from 39),and 9 for the PDC (down from 14). ARENA's victory in San Salvador provides a much needed boost to its presidential candidate, but the temporary lift will not be sufficient in and of itself. Isolated incidents aside, polling day was quiet. Embassy carried out a robust program of election observations. End Summary. -------------- Legislative Results -------------- ¶2. (C) Returns from the legislative elections have been swinging wildly as the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) continues to tally results. This is mainly due to the nature of the system, in which a small number of votes generally decides the final seat in a given department (Ref A). As there are 14 departments, there are at least that many seats that will be uncertain until the final vote counts are in. That said, the current breakdown, with 75.25 percent of votes in, shows the FMLN in the lead with 35 seats (an increase of three) and ARENA close behind with 32 (a decrease of two). As expected, neither will approach a majority (43 seats). If the numbers hold, the PCN (currently allied with ARENA in the Assembly) would have 11 seats (up from 9),the PDC would hold 5, CD (in alliance with the FMLN) would hold a single seat, and the FDR would not have any. (Note: The PCN's totals illustrate the rapidly fluctuating election returns. The initial numbers that the media reported on Election Night said that the PCN would only win three legislative seats, and two days later, that number had jumped to 11. End Note.) With these figures, the PCN would be in a powerful bargaining position, with the ability to form a majority with either the FMLN or ARENA. An FMLN source told us they have been negotiating with the PCN for some time (Ref A). -------------- Municipal Results -------------- ¶3. (U) There were some surprises in the municipal races. In San Salvador, incumbent FMLN mayor Violeta Menjivar, who had been at least five points ahead in the polling in the weeks leading up to the elections, lost to ARENA challenger Norman Quijano. With 77 percent of the votes confirmed, Quijano held a 50 to 47 percent edge, which was enough for Menjivar to concede defeat on January 19. The FMLN had been in control of San Salvador since 1997, but Quijano ran a tireless campaign, and there had been widespread dissatisfaction with the job done by Menjivar. ¶4. (U) Despite the significant setback in San Salvador, the FMLN made substantial gains overall in municipal races. They took the hotly-contested race in Santa Ana, deposing the incumbent PDC mayor by an ample margin. Recent polling had suggested a three-way deadlock in that race. Overall, (conservative news daily) La Prensa Grafica is reporting that ARENA has 108 municipal wins, which would be down nearly 40 from its previous 147. (Note: (Conservative daily) El Diario de Hoy is reporting 118 for ARENA. As with the legislative elections, there are many races to be finalized. End Note.) La Prensa Grafica is reporting 86 municipal wins for the FMLN (up from 59),28 for the PCN (down from 39),and 9 for the PDC (down from 14). El Diario de Hoy is reporting 77 for the FMLN, 35 for the PCN, and 9 for the PDC. -------------- Polling Atmospherics -------------- ¶5. (C) Voter turnout was strong. La Prensa Grafica reports that 57 percent of eligible voters cast ballots January 18, up from 54 percent in 2006. Voting proceeded largely without incident, though observers reported many cases of late poll openings. OAS observers reported an average opening time of 7:39 (39 minutes late). During the day, local polling officials closed four polling sites due to disputes. Three of the four were later reopened. The other, San Isidro, in the department of Cabanas, was closed for the day following claims that Hondurans were being bused in and paid USD28 each to vote. Emboff observers were present as these rumors spread, polls were closed and failed to reopen in San Isidro. Attorney General Felix Garrid Safie told us in the late afternoon January 18 that the dispute originated because of the small-town atmosphere at the polling station. Safie said that when buses full of voters arrived that some people did not know, those people assumed that the new arrivals were not from their municipality, and fraud must be in play. Safie said that the disputed voters were all on voter rolls and had valid DUIs (Unique Identity Documents) with them. The TSE opted to suspend voting for the day after realizing that polling station officials had departed, and announced late Monday that voting would resume in San Isidro January 25. (Note: These votes have the potential to affect one Assembly seat in the Cabanas Department.) ¶6. (U) Aside from the closed polls, there were minimal irregularities. At the polling sites, there were occasional reports of inconsistent ID checks, poorly placed voter rolls, officials not checking for ink or not staining voters' thumbs, and voters being turned away due to damaged DUIs. In some cases, polling workers arrived wearing t-shirts with party logos and candidate names, which delayed poll openings. There was no evidence of large-scale fraud, and observers were consistently satisfied with the process. ¶7. (SBU) The TSE's organization at the polling stations was largely successful, but its post-election reporting has been abysmal. The TSE continues to set self-imposed deadlines for releasing election results, and then fails to meet them. As of 12:00 PM January 20, there are still no definitive results from the TSE. The organization's web site, the theoretical chief public source of election data, has been inaccessible since polls closed and many Salvadoran media sites have been available only intermittently. -------------- Observer Missions -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The Embassy fielded fifteen teams of observers to all fourteen Departments of El Salvador, with 35 observers in total. In conjunction with DS, Embassy was able to use GPS-enabled mobile phones to monitor the movements of all teams (Ref B),and there were no security incidents. The OAS fielded 82 international observers from nineteen countries and judged that the elections ran smoothly with just a few incidents as noted above. The EU election monitoring mission of approximately 40 monitors called the elections "normal." Several U.S.-based NGOs fielded observer teams, including the Center for Exchange and Solidarity (CIS) and the Committee in Solidarity with the People of El Salvador (CISPES). The Ombudsman for Human Rights (PDDH),the government's human rights watchdog, called the elections successful. The NDI-supported (and USAID-funded) domestic observation effort organized by San Salvador's Central American University public opinion unit (IUDOP) fielded around 2,000 domestic observers, largely university students, and planned to do a "quick count" vote tally. Embassy teams viewed IUDOP observers throughout the country. While the observer effort successfully reported on late polling station openings and other minor irregularities, IUDOP has been silent since Sunday evening with no data yet to corroborate official vote counts. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) ARENA's victory in the San Salvador municipal race is an important morale boost for the party that gives its presidential candidate, Rodrigo Avila, an opportunity to invigorate his campaign. But the boost from the San Salvador victory will not be sufficient in and of itself ) ARENA and Avila have to ensure ARENA supporters set aside the resentment that lingers from the candidate-selection process. Even if Avila does everything right, he faces a daunting challenge in trying to close FMLN candidate Mauricio Funes' double-digit lead in opinion polls. ¶10. (C) Comment continued: The San Salvador municipal result was an exception in a day of strong performance by FMLN candidates across the country. The party is poised to hold a plurality of seats in the Legislative Assembly, but will fall short of a controlling majority. As votes are still being tallied, the composition of the Assembly is still in play, but broadly speaking, the FMLN made significant gains, ARENA fell back, and control of the Assembly will depend on the PCN, PDC, or both. The bidding war (both literally and figuratively) for the PCN's support will be fierce, especially if the PCN alone is in a position to decide whether the FMLN or ARENA controls the Assembly. If ARENA and the PCN together can no longer reach the 43-vote threshold to control the Assembly, ARENA is faced with the unpleasant prospect of assembling and managing a difficult coalition of both the PCN (a party already flirting with the FMLN) and the PDC. The FMLN, on the other hand, can concentrate its efforts on the PCN, simplifying both initial negotiations and maintenance of that alliance going forward. Much depends on the final distribution of seats in the Legislative Assembly, the determination of which may still be days away. BLAU