FUNES TAKES PRESIDENCY IN SMOOTH, EFFICIENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000229

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL ES
SUBJECT: FUNES TAKES PRESIDENCY IN SMOOTH, EFFICIENT
ELECTION

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: (Left-wing) Farabundo Marti National
Liberation Front (FMLN) candidate Mauricio Funes has won the
presidency of El Salvador. Funes claimed victory at
approximately 9:30 PM local time, after 90 percent of the
votes had been counted. As of the morning of March 16, the
Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) was reporting that 99.38
percent of the votes were in, and Funes led 51.3 percent to
48.7 percent. Charge spoke with both candidates on Election
Night after the results were clear. Both candidates
expressed optimism about the future of U.S.-El Salvador
relations, as did Charge in comments to media. Election Day
proceeded smoothly, largely without incidence of violence.
The TSE corrected most of the logistical problems that
occurred in the January legislative and municipal elections.
A 5,000 plus member domestic and international observer
effort, including a 70-person Embassy team spread throughout
the country, helped ensure a free and fair electoral process.
Funes as President presents both challenges and
opportunities going forward. End Summary.

--------------
FUNES WINS WITH 51.3 PERCENT
--------------


2. (C) FMLN candidate Mauricio Funes has won the presidency
of El Salvador. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE)
announced that over 90 percent of the votes had been counted
at approximately 10:00 PM local time on Election Night, March

15. Funes led (center-right, pro-U.S.) Nationalist
Republican Alliance (ARENA) candidate Rodrigo Avila by a 2.6
point spread (51.3 percent to 48.7 percent),which was enough
to call the race in Funes' favor. Funes declared victory at
9:30 PM. By that time, Central American University's
Institute of Public Opinion (IUDOP) had received a large
enough and representative sample from its quick count effort
(supported by USAID and NDI) to reduce the margin of error to
less than one percent, enough for the group to have full
confidence in its results. NDI told us at 9:30 PM that IUDOP
was ready to deliver the results to the TSE. As of the
morning of March 16, the TSE is reporting that it has
accounted for 99.38 percent of the votes, and is still saying
that Funes' lead is 51.3 to 48.7 percent. The TSE also says
there were 2,630,137 valid votes cast, representing 62.2
percent of eligible voters.


3. (C) When the TSE results reached the 90 percent level,
Charge spoke by telephone with Rodrigo Avila, who confirmed
that President Saca had called Funes to congratulate him on
his victory, and that ARENA had accepted defeat, and was
making preparations to publicly concede.

-------------- --------------
CHARGE MEETS WITH BOTH CANDIDATES ON ELECTION NIGHT
-------------- --------------


4. (C) The Charge then met with President-elect Funes. Funes
said that he hopes to have a strong working relationship with
the U.S., and that he wants to "get to know the U.S.
government." He also noted that he was looking forward to
Assistant Secretary Shannon's visit. Funes said Brazilian
President Lula had called to congratulate him on his victory.
Also present was FMLN legislator Hugo Martinez, a likely
candidate for Foreign Minister, who discussed pragmatically
with Charge the many issues of bilateral interest.


5. (C) After meeting with Funes, Charge attended Avila's
concession speech. During the speech, Avila said he wanted
ARENA to be a constructive, active opposition and
congratulated Funes on his victory, noting that this was all
part of a democratic system. Afterwards, Avila told Charge
that he knew he had a responsibility to accept defeat
honorably, much as he promised he would do when we discussed
possible election outcomes with him on Friday morning.

-------------- --------------
ELECTION RUNS SMOOTHLY WITH STRONG OBSERVER PRESENCE
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) The electoral process was smooth, and largely
without incident. The TSE was well-organized, and
successfully avoided many of the logistical problems it had
during the January 18 legislative and municipal elections.
There were over 5,000 accredited domestic and international

observers in the country for the election, and early reports
are consistent with the Embassy team's observations: the
elections were free and fair, with minimal irregularities.
The Embassy fielded a team of 70 observers, who were
scheduled to visit 80 percent of the municipalities in the
country (210 of 262). Observers reported extra Unique
Identification Document (DUI) scrutiny by election officials.
Many rumors of attempted DUI fraud had been circulating
leading up to the election, but observers saw little evidence
of it. There were some disputes over DUIs, but the Office of
the Attorney General was present and visible at most voting
sites to resolve those problems.


7. (SBU) Most polling sites opened on time throughout the
country. One of the chief complaints of election observers
in January was that polls opened an average of one hour late.
Observers relayed scattered reports of ARENA supporters
trying to intimidate voters and claims of foreigners trying
to vote, but those were isolated cases. News daily La Prensa
Grafica reported March 16 that the National Civilian Police
(PNC) arrested 30 people who were allegedly foreigners trying
to vote. These cases were mostly in the interior regions of
the country. Embassy election observers in the border
regions reported no claims of foreigners attempting to vote.
There were no credible reports of foreigners being bused into
the country to vote, which had been one of the FMLN's claims
of impending ARENA fraud in recent weeks.


8. (SBU) The election proceeded essentially without violence.
Despite a much higher volume of voters, the morning went
smoothly. In the late afternoon, the Embassy began receiving
swirling rumors of violence developing, but none of them
resulted in specific reports of election-related violence.
We did note large numbers of FMLN supporters rallying on the
streets of San Salvador as the votes were being counted.
Police were concerned they would riot if the results did not
go their way. In the end, they partied in the streets late
into the night.


9. (SBU) There was one report of an ARENA member assaulting
an IUDOP domestic observer. News daily El Diario de Hoy
reported March 16 that an ARENA activist was shot and killed
by gang members while coordinating an election transportation
effort. The victim had reportedly recently received threats
from gang members and the FMLN. An ARENA official claimed
the killing was a political murder, but authorities have yet
to comment on the motive.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) The election is potentially a momentous occasion in
the maturation of Salvadoran democracy. A peaceful
transition of power to the opposition party will represent
another step away from the violent history of the Salvadoran
civil war. That said, the loss is a big shock for ARENA.
The party will need to regroup and partially reinvent itself
to shed its "insider's club" image going forward. Based on
Avila's comments in his concession speech and the fighting
spirit still on display in the party, we expect ARENA to
become an assertive opposition party.


11. (C) The FMLN in power is uncharted territory in El
Salvador, and presents challenges and opportunities.
However, the relationships fostered by the Embassy with the
FMLN over the last 18 months place us in a good position to
work constructively with the new administration. We said
that to Funes and his team on Election Night, and to media as
well.
BLAU