EL SALVADOR ELECTION UPDATE: MARCH 12

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000219

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL ES
SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR ELECTION UPDATE: MARCH 12

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: This is the final update regarding the
presidential elections scheduled for March 15. This report
includes an Attorney General investigation of the (left-wing)
Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) presidential
candidate, the FMLN and the (center-right, pro-U.S.)
Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) electoral campaign
closing ceremonies, FMLN concerns about the potential for
electoral fraud, the final Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE)
technical test, opinions from the private sector on the
elections, the international election observation effort, and
increased Election Day security measures. Embassy still
considers the race too close to call. End Summary.

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ATTORNEY GENERAL INVESTIGATES FUNES
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2. (U) On March 9, (center-right) news daily La Prensa
Grafica reported that Attorney General Felix Garrid Safie is
investigating FMLN presidential candidate Mauricio Funes.
According to Safie, Funes' bank account reported a balance of
over USD two million, despite an earlier bank statement,
which specified he made approximately five thousand dollars
per month.


3. (U) Funes said March 10 in a television interview that he
was aware of the Attorney General's investigation. He
revealed in a newspaper advertisement that local business
mogul Nicolas Salume, owner of several food franchises, has
financed part of his political campaign, and that the
contributor deposits the money directly into his bank
account. (Note: El Salvador has no laws regulating campaign
financing. End Note.) TCS TV network (conservative) also
did a story on Funes' new luxury home, which Funes said was
also provided by Salume.


4. (U) Funes denied financial wrongdoing, and said that the
bulk of his account balance reflects personal loans from
Salume. Funes stated in a press conference that he has not
received money from Venezuelan-financed Alba Petroleos or
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. He added that he approves
of the Attorney General's investigation, but resents that it
was made public during the last week of the presidential
campaign.


5. (C) In a March 9 meeting with Poloffs, FMLN Deputy Hugo
Martinez criticized the Attorney General's decision to
investigate Funes' accounts. Martinez called the
investigation a political maneuver, and said it would not
uncover any damaging information because Funes' financing has
come from Mexico and the United States, not Venezuela.

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POLITICAL PARTIES CLOSE CAMPAIGN WITH LARGE RALLIES
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6. (SBU) Both ARENA and the FMLN held huge campaign rallies
in San Salvador on March 7-8, the last weekend before the
political campaigns closed on March 11. Media reports of
attendance figures varied, with politicians from both parties
claiming higher turnout, but the rallies highlighted the
ability of both political parties to mobilize large numbers
of supporters from around the country. Both parties did
their best to emphasize the presence of members or leaders of
the smaller parties at their events as a sign of widespread
support. The FMLN's event received considerably less
coverage in Salvadoran newspapers than ARENA's rally.


7. (U) The FMLN held its rally on Saturday afternoon along
Avenida Juan Pablo II, filling the street with its
supporters. FMLN General Coordinator Medardo Gonzalez,
former National Conciliation Party (PCN) presidential
candidate Tomas Chevez, and Funes' running mate, Salvador
Sanchez Ceren, were keynote speakers at the rally. Funes
focused his remarks on two major themes: the demand for
change after 20 years of ARENA's failure to resolve security
and economic problems, and the need to defend the vote from
fraud perpetuated by ARENA. He alleged that ARENA was making
false Unique Identification Documents (DUIs),has bused in
Guatemalans, Hondurans, and Nicaraguans to vote, and that
some ARENA employers had ordered their employees to take
pictures of their vote for ARENA with cell phone cameras.


8. (SBU) ARENA started its rally on Sunday morning, packing
El Salvador's largest soccer stadium. The rally featured
speeches from the leaders of the (center-left) Revolutionary
Democratic Front (FDR),the (center-right) Christian
Democratic Party (PDC),and the (right-wing) National
Conciliation Party (PCN),along with influential PDC mayor
Wilfredo Salgado, and Avila's running mate, Arturo Zablah.
"Saving El Salvador from communism" (including references to
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez) was a major theme in many
of the speeches. Avila discussed ARENA's contributions
following El Salvador's civil war, but acknowledged that
poverty and other problems still need to be resolved. He
promised to work to build new housing and provide other
assistance to the poorest citizens.

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MARTINEZ CONFIDENT BUT CONCERNED ABOUT FRAUD
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9. (C) In a March 9 meeting with Poloffs, FMLN Deputy Hugo
Martinez said he was confident about the FMLN's chances for
winning the March 15 election, but expressed concerns about
the potential for fraud by ARENA. Martinez described the
FMLN's closing campaign rally on March 7 as impressive, and
said that an internal party poll showed that the FMLN would
win by a slight margin, even if 60 percent of the undecided
vote moved to ARENA.


10. (C) Martinez expressed concern, however, that while a
margin of 5 percent or more would require blatant fraud to
overcome, a smaller margin could allow ARENA to steal the
election. He acknowledged the importance of electoral
observers, and said that the FMLN would field observers at
all electoral tables. Martinez predicted that current
Salvadoran President Elias Antonio (Tony) Saca would probably
violate the prohibition on campaigning in the days
immediately preceding the election by giving interviews.


11. (C) Martinez denied reports in the news daily El Mundo,
which said the party had plans to sanction FMLN Deputy
Salvador Arias (who Martinez said was recovering from an eye
surgery) for not campaigning for Funes. He did acknowledge,
however, that soon after the elections, the FMLN would
reposition its leadership. Martinez said that party members
would directly vote on new party leadership toward the end of

2009.

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INTERNAL ARENA POLLING OPTIMISTIC
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12. (C) Elias Bahia, First Designate to the Presidency, told
Charge and A/DCM on March 11 that ARENA's internal polling
had Avila up by three points. He was confident Avila could
win, based on an assumption that the lion's share of
undecideds would vote for Avila.

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CAMPAIGNS VS. THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY
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13. (U) On March 11, La Prensa Grafica reported that Federico
Colorado, President of the Salvadoran Private Enterprise
Association (ANEP),said that, regardless of who wins the
elections, the winner should promote dialogue with private
enterprises and respect business initiatives. He lamented
that the FMLN has not briefed ANEP on its platform.


14. (U) On March 12, La Prensa Grafica published an interview
with Rafael Barraza, former Director of the Central Bank, who
said he regretted that neither party adequately addressed the
current economic situation. He added that the private
sector's confidence could play a major role in the outcome of
the election; the FMLN has had open confrontation with the
private sector, while the business world has sent signals
that it has confidence in ARENA. He said that confidence
would not only be a decisive factor in the election, but
would also be a key to overcoming the current economic
difficulties.


15. (U) Barraza said that Funes sounded like a candidate from
the right. However, the leadership of the FMLN publicly
sympathized with governments like those of Hugo Chavez and
Fidel Castro. In addition, he said the FMLN's platform was
very general and not as complete as ARENA's. Therefore, ANEP
was left with doubts about where the FMLN really stood on the
issues.

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TSE PERFORMS FINAL TECHNICAL TEST
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16. (U) El Diario de Hoy reported that the Supreme Electoral
Tribunal (TSE) tested the transmission of election results on
March 8. About two hours into the test, the TSE detected a
problem. La Prensa Grafica reported that the system crashed
due the amount of information being transmitted, and one
server had to be rebooted twice during the test. FMLN TSE
Magistrate Eugenio Chicas said the system failed despite the
TSE acquisition of a server with greater capacity than the
ones used in the January elections. TSE President Walter
Araujo (ARENA) said he was pleased with the test results.

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EXPANDED OBSERVATION EFFORT
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17. (U) On March 10, the TSE announced that nearly five
thousand election observers will watch the presidential
election process. TSE President Walter Araujo said there
will be one observer for every two voting tables (JRVs) in
the country. The Embassy plans an effort of approximately 70
observers, who will reach nearly 80 percent of Salvadoran
municipalities.

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INCREASED ELECTION DAY SECURITY PRESENCE
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18. (U) Media reported that the National Civilian Police
(PNC) and the Office of Migration announced the borders will
remain open, but they will increase controls at border
crossings into El Salvador in order to verify Central
Americans' identification documents. The decision to bolster
border security came after FMLN claims that ARENA was using
citizens of neighboring countries to vote in its favor.


19. (U) In addition, two thousand Salvadoran military
officers will assist the nearly 18,000 police officers and
1,000 police trainees on Election Day. The military will be
deployed to help guarantee peaceful and secure elections.
BLAU