EL SALVADOR ELECTION UPDATE: JANUARY 6

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000016

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/06/2019
TAGS: PGIV KPLS KDEM ES
SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR ELECTION UPDATE: JANUARY 6

Classified By: The Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) Summary: This is an update regarding the Salvadoran
municipal and legislative elections scheduled for January 18,
and the presidential elections scheduled for March 15. This
report includes results of the two latest polls and details
on recent reports of electoral violence.

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THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE
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2. (U) Polling released by the Information and Public Opinion
Center of the Technological University (CIOPS) December 28
showed that (left-wing) FMLN presidential candidate Mauricio
Funes (45.9) leads (pro-U.S., right-wing) ARENA candidate
Rodrigo Avila (28.6) by 17.3 percent, an increase of 2.8
points since October. A poll of likely voters taken by the
International Republican Institutes in early December shows
Funes (39) leading Avila (27) by 12 points.

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SAN SALVADOR AND SANTA ANA
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3. (U) Leading (center-right) newspaper La Prensa Grafica
released polling results January 3 that show incumbent Mayor
Violeta Menjivar (FMLN) (32.3) leads ARENA candidate Norman
Quijano (27.6) by 4.7 points. However, results indicate that
respondents believe Quijano (40.4) to be more capable than
Menjivar (33.6).


4. (U) The poll also showed incumbent (pro-U.S.,
center-right) Christian Democratic Party (PDC) mayor Orlando
Mena (18.5) tied with FMLN candidate Francisco Lemus (19.0)in
Santa Ana.

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ELECTORAL VIOLENCE
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5. (U) Media reported that ARENA and FMLN sympathizers
scuffled in El Progreso, located in the municipality of Santo
Tomas, January 3. Two National Civilian Police (PNC) agents
were injured, as well as one ARENA sympathizer. The scuffle
began after ARENA sympathizers painted walls and placed
campaign posters in the area.


6. (U) Approximately 15 residents of El Progreso, linked to
the FMLN student association &Popular Youth Block8, armed
with sticks and stones tried to prevent ARENA followers from
placing electoral propaganda. Six additional PNC patrols
were called to assist the injured officers. Other electoral
violence was reported in Cuscatancingo and La Union. The
Catholic Church and the Chamber of Commerce urged political
leaders to end the violence.


7. (C) FMLN spokesman and Legislative Assembly Deputy
Sigfrido Reyes sought out PolCouns December 4 to tell him the
FMLN was concerned this recent spate of violence would
continue and believed it was being instigated by ARENA. The
FMLN, he said, has no interest or potential gain in violence.
Reyes said he had just been told by &credible sources8
that groups supporting ARENA were planning a staged attack on
an ARENA mayoral candidate, probably San Salvador candidate
Norman Quijano. Reyes said the aim was probably to frighten
off timid voters and increase support for Quijano through
sympathy.


8. (C) Comment: While we are unable to corroborate Reyes,
allegations, they are indicative of increasingly tense
pre-election climate in El Salvador, where rumor and fact are
becoming increasingly difficult to disentangle.
GLAZER