ARENA Rebels Hope to Return, Prepared to Go It Alone

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 001071 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/11/18 TAGS: PREL PGOV ES SUBJECT: ARENA Rebels Hope to Return, Prepared to Go It Alone REF: SAN SALVADOR 1033 AND PREVIOUS CLASSIFIED BY: RBlau, CDA, State, U.S. Embassy San Salvador; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Leaders of the group of twelve (conservative) ARENA breakaway Assembly Deputies, now called GANA, told PolCouns their preferred option was to return to ARENA after sufficient leadership changes (i.e., former President Cristiani relinquishes control) took place. They do not rule out forming a new party or joining an existing party before 2012 legislative elections. They expect additional deputies may defect to GANA in coming days, while some may be lured back to ARENA with financial incentives. GANA has received private messages of support from President Funes, but the group is adamant it retains its ARENA-style center-right orientation. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) PolCouns met November 17 with former ARENA Deputies Guillermo Gallegos and Mario Tenorio. Gallegos, who led ARENA's legislative bloc in the 2006-2009 Assembly is now the leader of the breakaway group called GANA, the Grand Alliance for National Unity. Tenorio leads GANA's twelve deputies in the Assembly. ¶3. (C) Gallegos said the twelve had broken from ARENA not because of an ideological quarrel but in order to force a change in ARENA leadership. He and Tenorio were critical of ARENA's lack of direction since it lost the March 2009 presidential election. Former President (1989-94) Alfredo Cristiani (1989-94) had assumed leadership of ARENA's executive board (COENA) on an interim basis through October. Gallegos believes Cristiani is attempting to stay in control of COENA as a way to protect himself from charges brought in Spain for his alleged role in the 1989 Jesuit murders. Gallegos said ARENA had, during twenty years in government, turned into a party with distinct groups loyal to current and former presidents. Gallegos and Tenorio believe all four former ARENA presidents must step down from positions of authority in the party. Gallegos denied that GANA was operating under the direction of former President Saca. Indeed, Gallegos said Saca's recent public comments critical of the breakaway deputies had "injured" him, since he and Saca had a previously close relationship. ¶4. (C) Gallegos said GANA's preferred option was to return to ARENA once sufficient changes in party leadership had taken place. "Plan A," Gallegos said, was by far their preferred option. However, he said, GANA is prepared to form its own new party (or take over an existing, smaller party) and compete in 2012 legislative and municipal elections (Plan B). He noted that several ARENA mayors had recently joined the ranks of GANA, suggesting the group's support is broadening. Gallegos said "Plan C," joining up with an existing conservative party, probably the (conservative, opportunistic) National Conciliation Party (PCN) was not an attractive option but a possibility. He joked that he could not rule out "Plan D," i.e., getting out of politics altogether. ¶5. (C) Gallegos said he expected two or three more deputies might soon move from ARENA to GANA. At the same time, he said, some Salvadoran business interests were offering financial incentives to a few of GANA's twelve deputies and might succeed in luring them back to ARENA. Gallegos said President Funes had privately expressed support for GANA's twelve deputies -- Gallegos said Funes had all but "adopted" them -- but did not want to publicly align himself with GANA. Gallegos said that while GANA's twelve deputies and others remained loyal to ARENA's core beliefs, he said he could conceive of an alliance between GANA and the "Friends of Mauricio" movement that supported Funes' candidacy. Unlike the (left-wing) FMLN, he said, the Friends of Mauricio (now called the Citizen Movement for Change) is moderate and centrist. ¶6. (C) Gallegos said GANA had voted with the FMLN on the 2010 GOES budget and other issues to garner necessary support to gain representation in the National Assembly leadership. However, he said, GANA will not always vote with the FMLN. He dismissed criticism that the twelve deputies had betrayed voter intentions by leaving ARENA after being elected as representatives of that party. Assembly rules, Gallegos said, explicitly allow deputies to change allegiance once elected. Gallegos said none of the GANA deputies had felt threatened. On the contrary, he was pleased with public expressions of support by rank-and-file ARENA supporters. ¶7. (C) Comment: While ARENA's meltdown has had the dramatic flair of a Latin American telenovela, Gallegos and Tenorio privately project a calm, deliberate air that suggests they understand the gravity of ARENA's situation. While it is too early to predict if GANA will ultimately return to ARENA or continue an independent, center-right path, what is clear is that President Funes' 2009 victory and ARENA's defeat kicked off a process of soul searching and reassessment of the party's direction. As for President Funes, ARENA's divisions represent more of a distraction than a threat: none of GANA's members have suddenly aligned themselves with the FMLN's more extremist goals, and Funes will continue to enjoy support for moderate proposals from both GANA and ARENA. BLAU