ELECTION UPDATE: ARENA GAINS MOMENTUM, BUT HAS A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000102

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV KPLS KDEM ES
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: ARENA GAINS MOMENTUM, BUT HAS A
LONG WAY TO GO

REF: SAN SALVADOR 60

Classified By: Robert I. Blau, Charge d'Affaires, for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The (conservative, pro-U.S.) ARENA party's
campaign has gained some momentum. The January 18
legislative and municipal elections resulted in the best-case
scenario for ARENA, and the voter base has appeared
increasingly energized in the ARENA events of the past week.
Poll numbers support this apparent trend. ARENA released its
platform January 28, pledging to create jobs, improve health
care and education, and develop infrastructure. The platform
was well-received by party supporters, but it offers little
insight on how it will achieve or pay for its goals, and the
media are beginning to pay attention to that detail.
(Center-right) Christian Democrat Party (PDC) candidate
Carlos Rivas Zamora announced the end of his campaign, which
will further bolster ARENA's prospects. The Supreme
Electoral Tribunal (TSE) released its final statistics from
the January 18 elections, and the number held to previous
projections (reftel). The TSE claimed to have been the
victims of hackers during the election. There were two
re-votes held in San Isidro and San Agustin, and ARENA won
both municipalities. The European Union released a report
criticizing the partisanship of Salvadoran media outlets in
the campaign. End Summary.

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Presidential Race: ARENA Gains Momentum
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2. (SBU) News dailies La Prensa Grafica and El Diario de Hoy
have released their first post-election poll results.
According to El Diario de Hoy, which reported a 4-point lead
for (left-wing) FMLN candidate Mauricio Funes in December,
Funes now holds a 2.6 point advantage. La Prensa Grafica had
previously reported a 12-14 point lead for Funes, and now
says that lead has dwindled to six. The actual numbers may
vary, but ARENA clearly gained some momentum from the
legislative and municipal elections, especially in winning
the key San Salvador municipal battle.

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Legislative and Municipal Results
--------------


3. (C) After a full week of tallying results wrought with
technical difficulties, the TSE began to effectively report
results on January 25. It released the final election
numbers later in the week. These were in line with initial
projections; the composition of the Legislative Assembly did
not change at all from the first reports, and only a handful
of municipalities shifted. The FMLN gained three Assembly
seats overall. ARENA lost two. The key result, however, is
the performance of the (right-wing) National Conciliation
Party (PCN). With 11 seats, it has the ability to form a
majority with either ARENA or the FMLN, giving the PCN the
key to the Assembly. In recent months, the PCN had been
negotiating with the FMLN, but is unlikely to formalize an
alliance until after the March 15 presidential elections (or
the April 19 runoff). The final electoral tallies were:

Legislative Assembly Seats (total: 84)

ARENA 32
CD 1
FDR 0
FMLN 35
PCN 11
PDC 5

Municipalities (total: 262, coalitions also listed)

ARENA 122 (down from 148)
CD 1
FDR-CD 1
FMLN 75 (up from 58)
FMLN-CD 18
PCN 33 (down from 39)
PDC 9 (down from 14)
PDC-FMLN 2
PDC-FMLN-CD 1

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TSE Claims Hackers Derailed Its Web Site Reporting Effort
-------------- --------------


4. (C) News Daily La Prensa Grafica reported January 28 that
Walter Araujo, President of the TSE, claimed that the

organization's web site had been attacked by hackers. The
report says Araujo reported this to the Attorney General on
Election Day. No subsequent information has been released
concerning the credibility of this claim. The TSE had a
series of technical glitches leading up to the elections.
Its web site was completely inaccessible for two full days
after the elections, and once it went live, only contained
preliminary data (70 percent of election returns) for the
entire week that followed. The TSE's organization failures
and technical problems were widely criticized during and
after the recent vote. On the other hand, the final vote
counts themselves were not questioned.

-------------- -
EU Observers Criticize Partisan Media Coverage
-------------- -


5. (SBU) According to online news source El Faro, the
European Union team of election observers concluded that
various media outlets unfairly demonstrated partisan
behavior. The EU report cited three television stations,
four newspapers, and four radio stations as having given
biased reporting, and that ARENA benefitted most from the
slant. An EU spokesman also publicly chastised its own
observation team members for showing their personal biases,
which, in the cases publicized, were pro-FMLN.

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San Isidro and San Agustin Re-votes: ARENA Prevails
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) The two municipalities requiring re-votes, San
Isidro and San Agustin, proceeded largely without incident.
In San Isidro, Cabanas, voting resumed January 25 after
authorities suspended it January 18 due to escalating voter
disputes (reftel). While the media reported minor
irregularities, voting was peaceful, and it concluded with an
ARENA municipal victory. San Agustin, Usulutan, also
required a second round of voting on February 1. The
original municipal election there resulted in a tie between
the ARENA and FMLN candidates. Press reported tensions
between party supporters and the occasional voting
irregularity, but the voting center was mostly free of
problems. The ARENA candidate emerged victorious.

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PDC Presidential Candidate Robbed
--------------


7. (SBU) PDC Presidential candidate Carlos Rivas Zamora was
robbed outside his parents' home January 25. Two assailants
stole his car, personal documents, cash, and his laptop,
which contained information relating to his campaign. Media
reported that Zamora had stopped at his parents' home to
deliver his laptop to his sister, when attacked. Zamora's
wife and daughters were in the car, but were allowed to exit
the vehicle. The attack occurred in broad daylight, at
approximately 2 PM on a Sunday afternoon. Media reports say
the police believe that Zamora was not targeted as a
political figure and consider the robbery a crime of
opportunity. (Note: The GOES provides security to
presidential candidates only if they request it. Rivas
Zamora did request it, but the GOES had not yet complied.
The GOES provided security soon after the incident. End
Note.)

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Rivas Zamora Ends Campaign
--------------


8. (C) On February 2, Rivas Zamora announced that he would
terminate his bid for the presidency. The move was unrelated
to his January 25 robbery. Rivas Zamora's decision was not
unexpected, and demonstrates the PDC's commitment to
preventing the FMLN from taking the presidency. PDC voters
will naturally swing to ARENA's side without prompting, but
ARENA would benefit further from public PDC support. The
party has not yet done this, but El Diario de Hoy reported
that an ARENA source indicated the PDC was on board. The
PCN, for the moment, is continuing its presidential campaign,
but may also drop out, which would eliminate the possibility
of an April runoff.

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ARENA's Platform: Addressing Voters' Concerns
--------------


9. (C) On January 28, ARENA announced its platform, a
monumental 337-page document promising to address the entire

range of voters' concerns. Months ago, ARENA identified the
key themes that were most important to voters (which they
cited in conversations with us in October),and assembled an
extensive set of working groups to develop policy proposals.
Most notable was the campaign's first sign of a break with
the Saca administration. Nothing in the platform
specifically criticizes Saca, but the suggestion is clear;
several of the main points (such as decreasing and limiting
subsidies and combating governmental corruption) subtly point
to a shift from the policies of the Saca administration.


10. (C) The platform emphasizes creating new jobs as ARENA's
top priority. Candidate for Vice President Arturo Zablah's
speech made specific reference to the government as both
employer and consumer as one way to reach that goal. They
pledged to limit subsidies and improve governmental
transparency, with the aim of reducing corruption. They
raised several proposals to improve living conditions and the
quality of life of lower income families. The ARENA platform
also aims to reduce the prices of medicine, introduce a
system of potable water, improve education, and develop
infrastructure in outlying regions. Towards the end of his
speech, Avila made a point of stressing the importance of the
family unit, and made specific mention of trusting in faith
in God as Christians, significant because recent press has
suggested that an evangelical leader has a specific (though
unspecified) problem with Avila.


11. (C) On January 29, Avila and Zablah, accompanied by ARENA
campaign coordinator Cesar Funes and Foreign Policy Advisor
Oscar Santamaria briefed the diplomatic corps on ARENA's
platform, and took questions on the campaign. Avila
expressed appreciation for missions that fielded observers
for January 18 municipal and legislative elections, crediting
them with helping ensure there was no electoral fraud. Cesar
Funes echoed those sentiments, noting the absence of violence
in the January vote and expressing confidence for ARENA's
chances in the final weeks before the March 15 presidential
vote.


12. (C) Zablah addressed the economic portions of the
platform, highlighting proposals to promote housing
development with funds from pension investments, proposals to
encourage youth employment with tax incentives and subsidies,
and to target subsidies. Zablah said an Avila administration
would use tax incentives to encourage economic development.
He said an ARENA government would move to tackle the high
price of medicine, though he said it would be difficult to
end VAT taxation on those items. He noted that he did not
oppose the so-called Washington Consensus, but did object to
a perceived double standard, with developed economies
maintaining agricultural subsidies that limited Salvadoran
access to those markets. Avila's remarks focused more on
public security, reflecting his years as Director of El
Salvador's National Civilian Police (PNC). He remarked on
his own success as police chief in bringing down the homicide
rate, noting the recent uptick as a warning against
complacency, and pledged to continue working towards
long-term solutions for El Salvador's crime problem.


13. (C) Comment: ARENA's platform, much like that of the FMLN
(released six months ago),lacks any indication of how it
plans to pay for or achieve its lofty goals. Despite its
length, the platform is a series of vague promises and
general statements of intent. The media is beginning to
question the plan, as they did months ago with the FMLN's
proposals. Major news dailies have begun dissecting the
details of the platform and noting the lack of substance.
The platform itself looks less important than the use of it
by party leaders to mobilize supporters.
BLAU