COSTA RICA: PAC PARTY PROFILE - CONTINUITY OR CHANGE?

UNCLAS SAN JOSE 000714 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR WHA/CEN, INR E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM CS SUBJECT: COSTA RICA: PAC PARTY PROFILE - CONTINUITY OR CHANGE? REF: SAN JOSE 624 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Charge d'Affaires Brennan met on August 18 with the main opposition contender for Costa Rica's presidency in the February 2010 elections, Otton Solis. Solis, from the Citizen Action Party (PAC),is now running for president for the third time, after a weak turnout for the party's primary in May 2009. PAC is Costa Rica's main opposition party, with the second most seats in the National Assembly and a base of support among the urban lower and middle classes. If Solis is able to pull out a victory, he plans to increase spending on social programs and agricultural subsidies, while curbing benefits to multinational corporations and increasing taxes on the business sector. However, PAC and Solis are currently far behind in the polls, and Solis could be headed for yet another defeat. If PAC does go on to a third consecutive defeat, the party could emerge with a new and pragmatic leadership for the 2014 elections. END SUMMARY. -------------- "NOT LOOKING FOR A ROAD TO CARACAS" -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Despite a sometimes combative relationship with the Embassy, in particular during the 2007 CAFTA debate, Solis expressed his desire for closer ties to the U.S. at the Charge's residence on August 19. Solis went to pains to distance himself from Hugo Chavez and "the leftists" in Latin America. Instead, he insisted that the PAC is a centrist party, which "is much closer in thought to the Obama administration than the current Costa Rican government." Solis highlighted his past interaction with Democratic members of Congress, stating that PAC "has a clear trail to Washington, and doesn't want a path to Caracas." ¶3. (SBU) Solis also said that, if elected, while he might try to rework some portions of the CAFTA-DR agreement (on agriculture, for instance),he was not interested in withdrawing from the treaty as whole. Solis admitted that public security was one of Costa Rica's major challenges, and called for more training and better pay for police officers. He said he was open to continued security cooperation with the U.S., as long as it did not lead to militarization in Costa Rica. While he refused to label his party, Solis is trying to position PAC as a social-democratic party with a strict anti-corruption focus. However, many experts believe that his shot at the presidency might have already passed him by. -------------- PAC'S BEGINNINGS -------------- ¶4. (U) After over 50 years of two-party hegemony, the PAC was formed in December 2000, reflecting the frustration of voters with corruption in the National Liberation Party (PLN) and the Christian Social Unity Party (PUSC). PAC and its founder, Solis, burst onto the political scene with a new style and message. Although Solis was not a particularly charismatic figure, he embodied voter outrage against corruption in the wake of a number of public corruption scandals. Solis tried to emphasize public ethics and transparency in government and promised a more efficient government. ¶5. (SBU) In the 2002 elections, Solis finished in third place with 26 percent of the popular vote, an impressive showing only 14 months after PAC was founded. PAC's rise formed a different dynamic in the Legislative Assembly, as it won 14 out of the 57 seats. In 2003, after one year in the Assembly, six PAC legislators defected, citing disagreement with the party's inflexible ethics code (under which Solis requires that PAC legislators reject public funding for official travel and prohibits them from using diplomatic passports, hiring more than two staffers, using official license plates for vehicles, or taking more than 15 days of annual leave). This severely weakened the party, leaving it with only eight seats in the Assembly. -------------- 2006 ELECTION -------------- ¶6. (U) In 2006, Solis was able to increase his political influence, in part by focusing on an anti-CAFTA message. Solis nearly won the presidential election (losing by only 1.12 percent) against PLN candidate Oscar Arias. Meanwhile, PAC became the second largest party in the Assembly with 17 seats. PAC was able to attract the votes of the "Anti-Arias" opposition from lower and middle class urban areas. With the crumbling of PUSC (which only won 5 seats), PAC became the major opposition party. However, in a sign that voters were more pro-Solis (or anti-Arias) than supportive of the party as a whole, PAC's National Assembly ticket only won 25 percent of the vote (compared to Solis' 40 percent). -------------- PAC TODAY -------------- ¶7. (SBU) During its second term in the Assembly (2006-2010),the PAC faction has been trapped by the inflexibility of its ethics principles, the rigidness of Solis' political control over the party, and its demand for excessive oversight of government. PAC has obstructed passage of a number of bills by presenting hundreds of motions (essentially filibustering the bills). These factors and PAC's continued opposition to CAFTA implementing legislation even after a public referendum approved the agreement, have caused a decline in general PAC popularity over the past three years. ¶8. (SBU) Although PAC is still the main opposition political party, it showed continued signs of decline after its first-ever primaries in May 2009 (Reftel). PAC held a "closed" primary, in which less than twenty-five thousand party members voted. Solis handily won the election with 71 percent, followed by former PAC Secretary General Epsy Cambpell and businessman Roman Macaya. PAC failed to properly mobilize voters in the primary, including refusing to provide transport to the polls, a common practice in Costa Rica. This was due, again, to PAC's strict ethics code and Solis' quest to keep money out of politics. ¶9. (SBU) Solis continues to receive high marks among voters for his honesty, though his inflexibility as a leader has recently become more obvious. In the run-up to the primary, Campbell and Macaya defied him by entering the race and forcing a primary for the first time in the history of PAC. ¶10. (SBU) Although the primary campaign revealed weaknesses within the party and particularly with Solis' leadership, it also might have strengthened the party as a whole. Some political analysts told us they saw PAC's primary as the first real step in a transformational process that PAC was undergoing from a one-man-movement to a new and modern political party. -------------- COMMENT: PAC'S FUTURE - CONTINUITY OR CHANGE? -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Polls published in mid-August showed Solis trailing PLN candidate Laura Chinchilla (Reftel) by almost 15 percent. In the upcoming 2010 election PAC could further consolidate its position as the country's second political force, particularly given PUSC's continued low standing under party caudillo Rafael Angel Calderon. However, pushing ahead for an out-and-out victory over PLN should prove difficult. Though Solis is personally respected by many Costa Ricans, the man and his message seem a bit haggard after two presidential defeats (and another defeat in the CAFTA referendum). Solis must find a way to reconnect with the public, but also will need to work on basic issues such as voter mobilization, grass-roots organization, and the fundraising required for such activities, to have any chance of winning the presidency. ¶12. (SBU) If Solis can somehow scrape together a victory, there remain numerous questions on how he would actually govern. One of our most pressing concerns is how Solis would manage our ongoing bilateral security programs. One of Solis' colleagues, PAC Assemblyman Olivier Perez, has told us that a PAC-led government would want a Costa Rican shiprider (authorized from our Bilateral Maritime Agreement) on every U.S. vessel that might detain ships in Costa Rican waters. This would be logistically impossible, and is not technically required by current agreements. Regardless, we would expect a Solis-led government to undertake a thorough review of Costa Rica's security cooperation with the U.S. While we would not anticipate any major changes under such a review, some aspects of our security engagement, such as with the shiprider issue, might face challenges. ¶13. (SBU) If, instead, Solis loses again in next year's elections, PAC would probably be forced to move past Solis and seek new leadership. It is in this respect that this year's primary could serve as a useful stepping stone, as it opened up the party to the prospect of younger leadership, including Campbell and Macaya. PAC also might be forced to re-think the party's identity and focus, or at least re-calibrate to better address voter priorities. The party that Solis started has in fact come a long way in its eight years of existence; the next challenge might be where it can go once Solis himself has left the stage.