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Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09SANJOSE602
2009-07-17 21:59:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy San Jose
Cable title:  

TFHO1: HONDURAS TALKS ROUND TWO: PREVIEW OF ARIAS

Tags:   AEMR  ASEC  CASC  KFLO  MARR  AMGT  PGOV  PINR  KDEM 
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VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSJ #0602/01 1982159
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 172159Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY SAN JOSE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1043
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
						C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN JOSE 000602 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA, WHA/CEN AND USOAS; SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2019
TAGS: AEMR ASEC CASC KFLO MARR AMGT PGOV PINR KDEM
CS, HO
SUBJECT: TFHO1: HONDURAS TALKS ROUND TWO: PREVIEW OF ARIAS
HOSTED DIALOGUE

REF: A. SAN JOSE 587

B. TEGUCIGALPA 600 AND OTHERS

C. TEGUCIGALPA 610

Classified By: CDA Peter M. Brennan for reason 1.4 (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN JOSE 000602

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA, WHA/CEN AND USOAS; SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2019
TAGS: AEMR ASEC CASC KFLO MARR AMGT PGOV PINR KDEM
CS, HO
SUBJECT: TFHO1: HONDURAS TALKS ROUND TWO: PREVIEW OF ARIAS
HOSTED DIALOGUE

REF: A. SAN JOSE 587

B. TEGUCIGALPA 600 AND OTHERS

C. TEGUCIGALPA 610

Classified By: CDA Peter M. Brennan for reason 1.4 (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On Saturday, July 18, President Arias will
host the second round of talks to mediate an acceptable
solution to end the political crisis in Honduras. The first
round of talks took place on July 9-10 with little progress
made (Ref A). Minister of the Presidency, Rodrigo Arias,
relayed to us on July 15 that Arturo Corrales of Micheletti's
delegation told him that their delegation was looking at a
variety of possible resolutions, including putting a third
party in the presidency. Arias was not so certain that
Zelaya's delegation was as ready to negotiate due to recent
ratcheted-up rhetoric including the "right to insurrection"
coming from Zelaya's team (Ref B). On July 17, MFA Foreign
Policy Director Alejandro Solano relayed to us a possible
agenda for the talks (para three below).


2. (U) Although there has not been an arrest warrant issued
for Micheletti in Costa Rica, two Costa Rican legislators
petitioned for one in case Micheletti were to land in Costa
Rica. However, according to a radio address from President
Arias on July 16, neither Zelaya nor Micheletti would be
attending this weekend's talks. Delegations are listed at
paragraphs nine and ten below. END SUMMARY.


3. (C) This weekend, July 18-19, will mark the second round
of talks to address the Honduran political crisis that began
on June 28. Minister Arias (President Arias' brother) told
us on July 15 that he had spoken with and possibly detected a
changed, slightly more forthcoming attitude from Micheletti

delegation member Arturo Corrales. Arias was not sure if
this change in attitude was only from Corrales or perhaps was
reflective of a change on the part of Micheletti's team in
general. Based on information from Minister Arias and what
MFA Solano told us July 17 (similar to Ref C), here is a
preview of the agenda that President Arias will evidently use
for this weekend's talks:

-- How Zelaya could return to Honduras;
-- Composition of any type of national unity government
until the November elections;
-- Political amnesty for all involved in this confrontation
(however, not amnesty for criminal acts);
-- Discuss possibility of removing top military leadership
to ease transition for a national unity government; and
-- Composition of possible verification commission to ensure
any agreement is being honored.


4. (C) Arias and subsequently FM Bruno Stagno told CDA
Brennan they felt that Corrales (and the Micheletti team in
general) was approaching this seriously and in good faith,
and felt that this laid the right foundation for this
weekend's discussions. On the other hand, Arias was not as
sure about the Zelaya team with all the recent saber-rattling
rhetoric from Guatemala and other locations over the past few
days. He was confident, however, that in the end they would
attend the talks. MFA Solano relayed to us that apparently
Zelaya had agreed (in a phonecall to President Arias July 16)
not to call for a national referendum, if reinstated.


5. (C) Arias indicated that the noise and maneuvering at the
OAS level had not been helpful, but thought that if it could
be kept in check for the moment and progress could be made
this weekend, that might quiet those elements down. Arias
recognized that the negotiations would be tough, particularly
due to the Zelaya team's (and cohorts) antics.


6. (C) CDA Brennan conveyed to Arias Ambassador Llorens' idea
of trying to heal/reconcile some of the splintered old
Liberal elements via Flores, Corrales and others in order to
reach an agreement. Arias agreed and said that they were
working on that angle as well.


7. (C) On July 15, Alberto Salom (head of Citizen's Action
Party-PAC) and Jose Merino (from Frente Amplio party),
petitioned the prosecutor's office to arrest Micheletti if he
came to Costa Rica for the talks. According to our sources
within the judicial powers, however, no arrest warrant has
been issued. Otton Solis, the PAC's 2010 presidential
candidate, quickly disavowed any party support for Salom's
petition and declared his support for dialogue to resolve the
Honduran crisis. According to the press on July 17, Costa

Rican Attorney General Francisco Dall'Anese apparently
ordered all police forces not to detain Micheletti if he were
to enter the country.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) As FM Bruno Stagno told us on July 16, they are
"cautiously optimistic" about the talks this weekend based
upon their preliminary discussions with Micheletti's staff
and some limited contact with Zelaya's team. The current
make-up of the Zelaya team (without the more radical Patricia
Rodas) could also indicate a willingness to come to a
solution. However, late additions such as Rodas could occur
and might further complicate the dialogue, though the Costa
Rican MFA has assured us that Rodas will not be coming this
weekend. Although the petition of an arrest warrant for
Micheletti does not seem to have any legs and AG Dall'Anese's
order not to arrest him seems legitimate, it is nonetheless a
bit worrisome given Dall'Anese's sympathetic political
tendencies and his attraction to the limelight.



9. (U) Zelaya's delegation:

-- Aristides Mejia, Vice President and former Minister of
Defense;
-- Milton Jimenez, former Foreign Minister; and
-- Enrique Flores Lanza, Secretary of the Presidency.


10. (U) Micheletti's delegation:

-- Carlos Lopez, former Foreign Minister;
-- Arturo Corrales, president of the Unity and Innovation
Party (PINU);
-- Mauricio Villeda, Vice-Presidential candidate for the
Liberal party; and
-- Vilma Cecilia Morales, former president of the Supreme
Court of Justice.
WILSON