HONDURAS TALKS: ARIAS MEDIATION BEGINS BUT NO FACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN JOSE 000587 SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA, WHA/CEN AND USOAS; SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2019 TAGS: HO PGOV PINR PREL CS KDEM SUBJECT: HONDURAS TALKS: ARIAS MEDIATION BEGINS BUT NO FACE TO FACE MEETING BETWEEN ZELAYA AND MICHELETTI REF: A. SAN JOSE 544 ¶B. SAN JOSE 565 ¶C. SAN JOSE 570 ¶D. BRENNAN/WEBSTER EMAILS 7/9/09 Classified By: CDA Peter M. Brennan for reason 1.4 (d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On July 9, talks hosted by President Arias between the Zelaya delegation and the Micheletti delegation began, but no face to face meeting occurred between the principals and no substantive agreements were reached. Arias met separately with Zelaya and Micheletti but no details have emerged from those high level discussions. Micheletti departed Costa Rica after three hours of discussion and Zelaya departed early on July 10 for possible meetings in the Dominican Republic with President Fernandez. On July 10, the two delegations continued to meet but according to local press reporting there had been no progress on key issues such as the return of Zelaya to Honduras. President Arias, though clearly pleased that he is able to host the talks, acknowledged that this process will take longer than he predicted and was less optimistic on a quick resolution. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) On July 9, talks began in San Jose to try and mediate the Honduran political crisis sparked by the June 28 removal of President Zelaya from office. Both Zelaya and de facto President Micheletti separately met with President Arias but not face to face. Their delegations did meet after Micheletti had departed the country after his three hour meeting with Arias. Little of substance has emerged as of the afternoon of July 10, but prospects for a quick resolution have dimmed. ¶3. (C) Minister of the Presidency/Chief of Staff Rodrigo Arias, who is also President Arias' brother, told us on the evening of July 9 that overall "things were not going well." Micheletti was determined to leave Costa Rica as soon as he could and Zelaya was not very interested in dialogue/negotiation either. The two never met face to face or even with their negotiation teams. Apparently both sides came in initially with their entire entourage of supporters, which Arias received, but insisted that for the discussions they keep it to their core negotiating team. (Core teams listed at end below). ¶4. (C) After his meeting with President Arias, Zelaya stayed in his hotel along with his larger entourage and the Venezuelan Vice Foreign Minister and Ambassador, the Nicaraguan Ambassador, and Cuban Consul, amongst others. Zelaya had given a calm, moderate statement at a brief press conference with Arias, saying that he hoped these discussions would lead to a restoration of the constitutional order in Honduras. Both he and Micheletti (in his own conference later on with Arias) talked about holding elections as planned in November, but there was no word of moving them up. ¶5. (SBU) The Costa Ricans, for their part, are quite proud to be hosting the talks and emphasized that just beginning these talks is a huge step. President Arias, though less optimistic now than a day or two ago, could try and get the parties to sign a "road map." The fact that the two delegations are at the same table is notable, but there does not seem to be any meaningful progress yet at that table. ¶5. (U) Local TV media reported during the Noon-time media news cycle on July 10 that: -- Zelaya's group would not accept Micheletti to continue as President and are agreeable to dialogue only to coordinate Zelaya's return; -- Micheletti's group listed the offenses that Zelaya had committed and reaffirmed that there was a violation of the constitution; -- Micheletti's group will let Zelaya return but only to appear before a tribunal; and -- there is discussion of whether or not there was a coup and the Honduran Prosecutor's Office is investigating why Zelaya was taken to Costa Rica in the first place. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Clearly the two sides are not close to an agreement, but the fact that the delegations stayed on for the talks on Friday are encouraging. During a long-scheduled visit and unrelated trip to SOUTHCOM on July 8, Minister Rodrigo Arias told us that they believe Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's control over Zelaya was very high. Arias said that when he went to the airport that fateful Sunday morning (June 28), Zelaya was already on the cell phone with Chavez and they spoke for 45 minutes. Arias questioned whether either side would cede on the issue of who occupies the Presidency over the next few months and speculated that it may be necessary to tap some third person agreeable to both. Post sees these discussions as positive but anticipates that as more time passes without resolution the negotiations will be long and drawn out. -------------- PARTICIPANTS -------------- Zelaya's core delegation: -Patricia Rodas (former foreign minister); -Silvia Ayala (ex-presidential candidate of Unification Democratic Party-PUD); -Salvador Zuniga (head of PUD); and -Milton Jimenez (former foreign minister). Micheletti's core delegation: -Carlos Lopez (former foreign minister); -Arturo Corrales (ex-presidential candidate for Christian Democratic Party-PDC); -Mauricio Villeda (lawyer); and -Vilma Cecilia Morales (ex-president of Supreme Court of Justice). Costa Rica's mediation team: -President Oscar Arias; -Minister Rodrigo Arias; -FM Bruno Stagno; and -Minister of Justice Viviana Martin. BRENNAN