HHS LEAVITT VISIT: PRESIDENT ARIAS MUSES ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN JOSE 000018

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA, WHA/CEN, WHA/CCA; HHS FOR SECRETARY'S OFFICE
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2019
TAGS: PREL CS CU PGOV PINR OVIP
SUBJECT: HHS LEAVITT VISIT: PRESIDENT ARIAS MUSES ON
REGIONAL POLITICS; SIGNALS POSSIBLE OPENING WITH CUBA

REF: A. A) 2008 SAN JOSE 1000

B. B) 2008 SAN JOSE 629 (BOTH NOTAL)

Classified By: DCM Peter Brennan per 1.4 (d)

1.(C) SUMMARY: HHS Secretary Michael Leavitt visited Costa
Rica January 7 to officially open a regional FDA office
(septel). The visit afforded the opportunity for the
Secretary, Ambassador Cianchette and members of the
Secretary,s delegation to meet with President Oscar Arias.
After discussing FDA,s international program, the
conversation turned to regional politics, with an
obviously-engaged Arias giving a tour d,horizon. On
Venezuela, he believes that Chavez is now in a difficult
economic position due to falling oil prices, soaring
inflation, and unrealistic aid pledges to other countries.
With Cuba, although still a strong critic of the Castro
regime, Arias made clear he is contemplating re-establishing
full relations. We anticipate that Arias may move soon,
especially if the new U.S. administration makes a major
gesture such as closing the Guantanamo facility or softening
aspects of the embargo. The President also said he had been
in contact with Dan Restrepo of the transition team, on other
issues. HHS Leavitt and party did not clear this cable in
advance. END SUMMARY.

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THE REGION ACCORDING TO OSCAR
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2. (U) Secretary Leavitt met with President Arias in the
latter,s office. The Ambassador, FDA Commissioner von
Eshenbach, HHS Director Stieger and Econoff accompanied the
Secretary. GOCR Vice Minister of Health Ana Cecilia Morice
joined Arias.


3. (C) When Secretary Leavitt asked how Arias viewed current
Central American politics, the President brightened and
offered the following observations:

-- El Salvador: the FMLN will win the 2009 national election;
although the leading candidate (Funes) is a &moderate,8 the
party itself is quite radical;

-- Honduras: the Zeyala government is now working closely
with President Chavez, in spite of critics within the country;

-- Nicaragua: now a &borderline rogue state8; Arias also
said, &you (the USG) would call it a failed state8. Arias
noted with matter-of-fact dryness that President Ortega
&stole8 the last election. Ortega has now gained control
of most of the institutions except for the national assembly,
but sidesteps this institution by governing by decree.
Noting that the US and the EU had cut foreign assistance
(because of Ortega,s attacks on Nicaraguan democracy),Arias
lamented that the volatile politics and unstable economy in
Costa Rica,s northern neighbor created an immigration
problem for his country; and

-- Venezuela: Chavez is experiencing difficult times given
the current (low) price of oil and the BRV economy,s
near-total dependence on oil exports. Furthermore, saddled
with the &highest inflation in Latin America, at 30
percent8, Chavez cannot keep his promises to aid other
countries. Arias expected Chavez to continue to support
Cuba, but the BRV would be &unlikely8 to maintain its
commitments elsewhere. VM Morice opined that Cuba had
strengthened the &weak8 BRV health system, with Cuban
doctors first working in provincial areas and then moving to
the cities. Secretary Leavitt noted that the &export8 of
Cuban medical assistance is one of several reasons behind
opening the FDA regional office in Costa Rica.

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EAGERNESS TO ENGAGE WITH CUBA?
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4. (C) Although not asked directly about Cuba, Arias voiced
doubts about the &Bush policy of isolating governments who
are opponents8. He recalled that &dialogue was important8
among opponents in Central America during the conflictive
1980,s (when he served his first term as president). As a
&civilized country,8 the U.S. understands that talking to

the opposition is key. Military force should be the last
resort, in Arias, opinion.


5. (C) Given that Costa Rica is one of two countries in
Central America currently without full diplomatic relations
with Cuba, and is likely to be the lone country given the
trend of the El Salvadoran presidential elections, Costa Rica
must think carefully about its relationship with Cuba, Arias
added. Cuba might follow China,s path, he continued, with a
&perestroika strategy8 leading to openness in the economy
in the short term and political reforms later. (Arias did
not clarify who would pressure the Cubans for such reforms).


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BUT WHO IN CUBA LISTENS?
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6. (C) Arias proudly maintained that he was the only head of
state in the region publicly critical of the Cuban regime.
But, he wondered aloud, &does that serve any purpose?8
Arias recalled that when he was outside of government (six or
seven years ago),he wrote and personally delivered a letter
to Fidel Castro, with recommendations for opening up
democracy on the island. Castro responded by letter, but
said &no8 to all of Arias, suggestions. Arias concluded,
&Castro does not listen to anybody, not even to the Pope.8

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COMMENT
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7. (C) Although still a strong critic of the Castro regime,
Arias is clearly contemplating re-establishing full relations
with Cuba; the idea has been simmering for months (Reftels).
With a new U.S. administration just days, away, Arias was
clearly comfortable hinting at the prospect with an out-going
USG cabinet member. We therefore would not be surprised if
the GOCR moves quickly on Cuba, especially if the Obama
administration makes a major gesture early in its term (such
as closing the Guantanamo detention facility or easing some
of the terms of the embargo). With CAFTA EIF at last behind
him, and national elections just 13 months away, Arias may
welcome the chance to make a dramatic foreign policy gesture
toward Cuba. This would be in keeping with his desire to
make periodic marks on the global stage, and the tendency for
his administration to make short-notice &policy pivots8 as
in the cases of opening relations with China (in 2007) and
moving the Costa Rican embassy from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv (in
2006).
CIANCHETTE