HHS LEAVITT VISIT: PRESIDENT ARIAS MUSES ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN JOSE 000018 SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA, WHA/CEN, WHA/CCA; HHS FOR SECRETARY'S OFFICE SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2019 TAGS: PREL CS CU PGOV PINR OVIP SUBJECT: HHS LEAVITT VISIT: PRESIDENT ARIAS MUSES ON REGIONAL POLITICS; SIGNALS POSSIBLE OPENING WITH CUBA REF: A. A) 2008 SAN JOSE 1000 ¶B. B) 2008 SAN JOSE 629 (BOTH NOTAL) Classified By: DCM Peter Brennan per 1.4 (d) 1.(C) SUMMARY: HHS Secretary Michael Leavitt visited Costa Rica January 7 to officially open a regional FDA office (septel). The visit afforded the opportunity for the Secretary, Ambassador Cianchette and members of the Secretary,s delegation to meet with President Oscar Arias. After discussing FDA,s international program, the conversation turned to regional politics, with an obviously-engaged Arias giving a tour d,horizon. On Venezuela, he believes that Chavez is now in a difficult economic position due to falling oil prices, soaring inflation, and unrealistic aid pledges to other countries. With Cuba, although still a strong critic of the Castro regime, Arias made clear he is contemplating re-establishing full relations. We anticipate that Arias may move soon, especially if the new U.S. administration makes a major gesture such as closing the Guantanamo facility or softening aspects of the embargo. The President also said he had been in contact with Dan Restrepo of the transition team, on other issues. HHS Leavitt and party did not clear this cable in advance. END SUMMARY. -------------- THE REGION ACCORDING TO OSCAR -------------- ¶2. (U) Secretary Leavitt met with President Arias in the latter,s office. The Ambassador, FDA Commissioner von Eshenbach, HHS Director Stieger and Econoff accompanied the Secretary. GOCR Vice Minister of Health Ana Cecilia Morice joined Arias. ¶3. (C) When Secretary Leavitt asked how Arias viewed current Central American politics, the President brightened and offered the following observations: -- El Salvador: the FMLN will win the 2009 national election; although the leading candidate (Funes) is a &moderate,8 the party itself is quite radical; -- Honduras: the Zeyala government is now working closely with President Chavez, in spite of critics within the country; -- Nicaragua: now a &borderline rogue state8; Arias also said, &you (the USG) would call it a failed state8. Arias noted with matter-of-fact dryness that President Ortega &stole8 the last election. Ortega has now gained control �00A;of most of the institutions except for the national assembly, but sidesteps this institution by governing by decree. Noting that the US and the EU had cut foreign assistance (because of Ortega,s attacks on Nicaraguan democracy),Arias lamented that the volatile politics and unstable economy in Costa Rica,s northern neighbor created an immigration problem for his country; and -- Venezuela: Chavez is experiencing difficult times given the current (low) price of oil and the BRV economy,s near-total dependence on oil exports. Furthermore, saddled with the &highest inflation in Latin America, at 30 percent8, Chavez cannot keep his promises to aid other countries. Arias expected Chavez to continue to support Cuba, but the BRV would be &unlikely8 to maintain its commitments elsewhere. VM Morice opined that Cuba had strengthened the &weak8 BRV health system, with Cuban doctors first working in provincial areas and then moving to the cities. Secretary Leavitt noted that the &export8 of Cuban medical assistance is one of several reasons behind opening the FDA regional office in Costa Rica. -------------- EAGERNESS TO ENGAGE WITH CUBA? -------------- ¶4. (C) Although not asked directly about Cuba, Arias voiced doubts about the &Bush policy of isolating governments who are opponents8. He recalled that &dialogue was important8 among opponents in Central America during the conflictive 1980,s (when he served his first term as president). As a &civilized country,8 the U.S. understands that talking to the opposition is key. Military force should be the last resort, in Arias, opinion. ¶5. (C) Given that Costa Rica is one of two countries in Central America currently without full diplomatic relations with Cuba, and is likely to be the lone country given the trend of the El Salvadoran presidential elections, Costa Rica must think carefully about its relationship with Cuba, Arias added. Cuba might follow China,s path, he continued, with a &perestroika strategy8 leading to openness in the economy in the short term and political reforms later. (Arias did not clarify who would pressure the Cubans for such reforms). -------------- BUT WHO IN CUBA LISTENS? -------------- ¶6. (C) Arias proudly maintained that he was the only head of state in the region publicly critical of the Cuban regime. But, he wondered aloud, &does that serve any purpose?8 Arias recalled that when he was outside of government (six or seven years ago),he wrote and personally delivered a letter to Fidel Castro, with recommendations for opening up democracy on the island. Castro responded by letter, but said &no8 to all of Arias, suggestions. Arias concluded, &Castro does not listen to anybody, not even to the Pope.8 -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Although still a strong critic of the Castro regime, Arias is clearly contemplating re-establishing full relations with Cuba; the idea has been simmering for months (Reftels). With a new U.S. administration just days, away, Arias was clearly comfortable hinting at the prospect with an out-going USG cabinet member. We therefore would not be surprised if the GOCR moves quickly on Cuba, especially if the Obama administration makes a major gesture early in its term (such as closing the Guantanamo detention facility or easing some of the terms of the embargo). With CAFTA EIF at last behind him, and national elections just 13 months away, Arias may welcome the chance to make a dramatic foreign policy gesture toward Cuba. This would be in keeping with his desire to make periodic marks on the global stage, and the tendency for his administration to make short-notice &policy pivots8 as in the cases of opening relations with China (in 2007) and moving the Costa Rican embassy from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv (in 2006). CIANCHETTE