YEMEN'S RESTIVE SOUTH: IS SALEH (FINALLY) GETTING

S E C R E T SANAA 000951

SIPDIS

FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2019
TAGS: PGOV PTER YM
SUBJECT: YEMEN'S RESTIVE SOUTH: IS SALEH (FINALLY) GETTING
SERIOUS?

REF: A. SANAA 942

B. SANAA 950

Classified By: Ambassador Stephen A. Seche for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (S) SUMMARY. Although a nervous-seeming ROYG has employed
numerous tactics to quell southern discontent in the weeks
following Democracy Day (April 27),only recently did
President Saleh hint at serious consideration of southern
grievances. A May 17 public announcement of constitutional
reform, a string of development initiatives in southern
governorates and a meeting between presidential confidante
and Northwest Regional Commander Major General Ali Muhsen
al-Ahmar and southern supporter Sheikh Tariq al-Fadhli
suggest that Saleh might now recognize the gravity of the
southern issue. His follow-through on implementing the
necessary reforms, however, remains a key question. END
SUMMARY.


2. (S) In the weeks leading up to Yemen's May 22 Unity Day
celebrations, the ROYG has employed both sticks and carrots
to dampen southern unrest: a crackdown on press freedom,
arrests of key leaders, announcements of southern development
projects and overtures from emissaries of President Saleh to
either negotiate with or buy off key southerners (Ref A).
However, until recently, Saleh avoided actions such as
serious dialogue or political and economic reforms that would
indicate his sincere intent to deal with southern discontent.
Southern Movement leader General Mohamed Saleh Tammah told
PolOff on May 17, "The President sent a delegation to (the
Southern Movement's) meeting in Abyan, but we rejected them.
They had no plan, they were just there to be there."


3. (S) President Saleh used a May 17 meeting with tribal
sheikhs from Yafa' (Lahj governorate) to signal a potential
key switch in ROYG policy. According to press coverage of
the meeting, Saleh pledged to usher in new constitutional
amendments that would give local councils greater authority
and permit the election of district mayors. In a meeting
with PolOff on May 18, a British diplomat compared the
current southern flare-ups to the fifth round of fighting in
Sa'ada: as the international community worried about how to
intervene to stop the escalating conflict, Saleh shocked
everyone by declaring a sudden unilateral ceasefire in July

2008. Saleh could use an occasion such as Unity Day to make
a similar announcement of major reforms to address southern
grievances.


4. (U) Further, the ROYG has announced a series of
development initiatives in the southern governorates to the
tune of 25 billion Yemeni rials (125 million USD). Vice
President Abdurabu Mansour Hadi has announced development and
services projects in Aden throughout mid-May. On May 18,
Prime Minister Ali Mujawar announced that the first subsidies
would finally be delivered to homeowners in Hadramout whose
residences were destroyed in floods in October 2008.


5. (S) Press reports indicated that presidential confidante
and Northwest Regional Commander Major General Ali Muhsen
al-Ahmar met with Sheikh Tariq al-Fadhli in Abyan on May 16;
despite various reports of a falling out, the two have very
strong family ties and many skeptics believe they remain in
close contact. (Note: Ali Muhsin is one of Saleh's closest
advisors, and while his personal opinion on the southern
issue remains a mystery, he has in the past used internal
conflicts, such as the al-Houthi rebellion, to increase his
personal power. End Note.)

COMMENT
--------------


6. (S) President Saleh's most recent actions suggest that he
now realizes that some concrete actions are needed if he is
to defuse tensions in the south (Ref B). However, he excels
as a crisis manager and might see the occasion of Unity Day
as an opportunity to announce a new plan for bring the
restive south back into the fold. Whether or not he and his
inner circle have the political will to see through key
reforms, however, remains to be seen. END COMMENT.
SECHE