SOUTHERN UNREST CASTS A SHADOW OVER PREPARATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 000942

SIPDIS

FOR NEA/APR:AMACDONALD, NEA/PPD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL YM
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN UNREST CASTS A SHADOW OVER PREPARATIONS
FOR YEMEN'S UNITY DAY

REF: A. SANAA 898

B. SANAA 833

Classified By: Ambassador Stephen A. Seche for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Yemen approaches the 19th anniversary of its
unification facing challenges from the south that some
observers have characterized as unprecedented since the civil
war in 1994. Both the ROYG and the southern independence
movement are likely to use this week's observance of Unity
Day as an occasion to demonstrate their respective resolve;
violent demonstrations in the south cannot be discounted,
although senior ROYG officials insist security forces will
maintain control and it appears likely this will be the case.
Post recommends that the Department issue a statement early
this week urging restraint by both parties and the initiation
of serious and sustained dialogue in order to restore trust
between the government in Sana'a and the people of the south.
Suggested language appears in paragraph 9. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Reftels note the increasingly secessionist rhetoric
employed by the Southern Movement, reflecting a growing
insistence that a unified Yemen is no longer a viable option.
While it is unclear to what extent this view is broadly held
by the general southern population, there is no doubt that
the ranks of those committed to dissolving Yemen's union are
growing. Evidence also points to the integration of more
violent elements into the movement, generating concern that
it is entering a more militant, confrontational phase.


3. (C) All of this provides a somewhat unsettling backdrop
for this week's observance of the 19th anniversary of Yemen's
1990 unification. Led by President Saleh, the ROYG has
recently engaged in a flurry of activity aimed at
demonstrating the central government's commitment to
development in the south, and at the same time, its intention
to minimize public manifestations of anti-unity sentiment.
Speaking to southern tribal leaders on May 17, Saleh asserted
that the ROYG is moving to amend the Constitution to permit
greater decentralization of authority in the country. Vice
President Abdurabu Mansour Hadi and Prime Minister Ali
Mujawar have been sent south to inaugurate development
projects in southern governorates valued at 21 billion Yemeni
rials (USD 105 million) to address complaints that the ROYG
ignores southern development needs. Saleh also sent former
Minister of Local Affairs AbdulKadir al-Hilal to head a
committee to address concerns in the Radfan area of the
restive Dhale governorate.


4. (C) Meanwhile, the ROYG crackdown on press freedom
continues (Ref B),preventing the publishing of a number of
independent newspapers. The purported justification of this
action was to prevent those papers from printing "seditious"
and "inflammatory" stories designed to foment anti-ROYG
sentiment. A secondary benefit derived by the ROYG is that,
by shutting down these outlets, the central government
deprives the Southern Movement of a tool used to publicize
and organize demonstrations. Finally, the ROYG has chosen to
mark Unity Day with the "largest ever" military parade in
Sana'a, designed as a very clear display of its military
capability.

WHAT WE EXPECT TO HAPPEN
--------------


5. (C) Some elements in the Southern Movement have indicated
to us that they will take advantage of Unity Day to make a
public statement of their intentions to seek the dissolution
of Yemen's unity.


6. (C) Post expects demonstrations across southern Yemen
around May 22. (Note: Because Unity Day falls on a Friday,
the Muslim holy day, the ROYG is likely to hold its official
observance on Thursday; we expect southern protest
demonstrations to follow suit. End Note.) Yemen security
forces will contain these demonstrations, using the proven
methods of limiting movement to population centers and likely
gathering places. A ROYG program of arresting protest
organizers prior to May 21 will also act to reduce the
effectiveness of the demonstrations. Tight ROYG controls
will prevent significant press coverage of demonstrations
within the country but will likely be less successful in
international fora, particularly with difficult-to-control
internet sources.


7. (C) In traditional hotspots in Lahj, Dhale and Abyan,
demonstrations may lead to violence as radicals attempt to
provoke a violent response from security forces, or security
forces overreact to non-violent but large-scale protests. If
demonstrations turn violent or overtly call for secession,


security forces will intervene forcefully. In Sana'a, the
large military presence related to Unity Day celebrations
will likely deter any major anti-unity demonstrations. If
such demonstrations occur, the ROYG will have more than
adequate resources immediately available to quell them.


8. (C) As always, there is a chance that al-Qaeda or the
rebellious al-Houthi movement in Sa'ada may take advantage of
the ROYG's preoccupation with the southern issue to stage an
attack or otherwise escalate their confrontations with the
ROYG. Post, however, has no specific information indicating
that this will be the case.

WHAT CAN WE DO?
--------------


9. (C) The international community's recent expressions of
support for Yemen's unity, and calls for real dialogue to
address legitimate grievances, led by Post's May 3 public
statement on the topic, have gone some distance to calm ROYG
concerns. Similarly, a public statement from the Department
early this week will present another opportunity for the USG
to further promote stability in Yemen in the short term. We
propose the following language for use by the Department
spokesman:

Begin Text of Proposed Statement

On May 22, Yemen marks the 19th anniversary of its
unification. It does so against a backdrop of civil unrest
in the south and calls for southern independence. The United
States wishes to reiterate its support for a stable, unified,
and democratic Yemen. We urge all parties to refrain from
acts of violence and to initiate immediately a serious and
sustained dialogue to identify and address the legitimate
grievances that fuel southern disenfranchisement.

The United States believes that Yemen's unity depends on its
ability to guarantee every citizen equal treatment under the
law, and the opportunity to participate fully in the
political and economic life of the nation. The United States
believes that the social and political problems confronting
Yemen can be solved without violence or provocation.

In this regard, we express our concern regarding measures
taken recently by the Government of the Republic of Yemen to
close or otherwise impede the operation of several
independent newspapers. A free press is a fundamental
principle of democratic societies. The United States urges
the Republic of Yemen Government to demonstrate its support
for freedom of expression and permit Yemen's independent
media to perform its important function in an unfettered and
responsible manner.

End Text

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) For all the suggestions that Unity Day 2009 will be a
defining moment in Yemen's still fledgling effort to create a
coherent nation, it is just as likely that what occurs this
week will be the preliminary steps in a longer campaign by
those who seek to dissolve the union and not the cathartic
experience some seem to expect. Knowing the world is
watching, the ROYG can be expected to take all steps
necessary to demonstrate its commitment to preserving Yemen's
unity; for its part, the Southern Movement may use this
demonstration of ROYG resolve to its advantage, provoking
security forces into a disproportionate response in an effort
to create international sympathy for its cause. Thus, while
some violence is likely, we expect neither side to emerge
from this moment with any particular advantage over the
other. In this atmosphere, a reassertion of U.S. support for
a unified Yemen can have a salutary effect, although we must
at the same time insist that unity will be viable only if the
central government takes meaningful steps to address the
corruption and neglect that have brought long-simmering
southern resentment to a boil. END COMMENT.
SECHE