YEMEN: TROUBLED BY SOUTHERN UNREST, BUSINESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 000925 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2019 TAGS: PGOV ECON YM SUBJECT: YEMEN: TROUBLED BY SOUTHERN UNREST, BUSINESS COMMUNITY SUPPORTS UNITY REF: A. SANAA 898 ¶B. SANAA 299 Classified By: Ambassador Stephen A. Seche, for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Nervously eyeing recent developments in the south, Aden- and Sanaa-based business contacts said that the situation in the south was at its worst since 1994. The business community supports unity, if only because southern secession would cut off market access to northern Yemen, according to an Aden Chamber of Commerce official. Southern economic grievances include post-1994 land grabs by military officers and blatant corruption at the Aden Refinery. The country's biggest businessmen blame President Saleh for the deterioration of the political environment and expressed little confidence that he would choose dialogue over confrontation in dealing with the Southern Movement. The private sector's perception that Saleh is corrupt, untrustworthy, and dismissive means that he will be unable to count on its support should commercial operations be seriously harmed by further violence or labor strikes. END SUMMARY. INTERESTS THREATENED; UNITY IMPORTANT FOR MARKET ACCESS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Aden- and Sanaa-based businessmen with commercial interests in the south are growing anxious over increasingly vocal calls for southern secession, according to a number of private-sector contacts. All agreed that recent incidents (REF A) marked the worst turn of events in the south since the end of the 1994 civil war. During a May 12 lunch with EconOff, Aden Chamber of Commerce members said that the public calls for secession would soon scare off investors and further increase shipping insurance costs already pushed high by piracy in the Gulf of Aden (septel). Nabil Hayel Saeed Anam, one of the country's wealthiest businessmen and managing director of the National Trading Company (NATCO), told EconOff on May 11 that, if the ROYG pursues a path of military confrontation rather than dialogue, Yemen will not be the next Somalia, it will be worse because Yemenis have more weapons than Somalis. "There's no such thing as low-intensity conflict in Yemen. If the government had nuclear weapons in 1994, it would have used them against the south," Anam warned. ¶3. (C) The Aden and Mukallah business communities support unity, if only because southern secession would cut off access to commercial markets in the north, according to Salem Mohamed al-Saadi, Chairman of the Aden Chamber of Commerce. Abdul Galil Shaif al-Shaibi (strictly protect),Chairman of the Aden Free Zone (AFZ) and a ROYG official who reports directly to the prime minister, told EconOff on May 12 that the AFZ's success depends on investors being able to reach the entire domestic market, not simply Aden governorate. "If the south secedes, Yemen will not be divided into two pieces, but rather into many. The extremists will make sure of that," Shaibi said. (Comment: Fears that, in the case of secession, the respective governments of the two Yemens would be leery of trading with one another are likely driving Aden businessmen's prediction that southern independence will limit market access to the north. End Comment.) SOUTHERN GRIEVANCES: LANDGRABS AND OIL SECTOR CORRUPTION -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Business contacts in Sanaa and Aden pointed to the results of a 2006 internal ROYG investigation of southern economic concerns, commissioned by the president and conducted by southern-born Minister of Higher Education Saleh Ali Ba Surrah, as an example of Saleh,s inability to address southern grievances. Khaled Noman, a prominent Aden businessman, told EconOff that the report, which Saleh dismissed without reading, identified 16 ROYG officials, mostly military, who were responsible for the worst instances of corruption in the south since 1994, including illegal land grabs of valuable real estate along the Aden coast. "All Saleh has to do is dismiss these 16 people, who are well known to the public, and it would be a major step forward," claimed Rashad Hayel Saeed Anam, Nabil's brother and owner of several factories in Aden. Anam said that recent instances of "out of control" corruption by local ROYG officials, particularly at the Aden Refinery, were serving as a catalyst for the Southern Movement's increasing militancy. "Only a small handful of people, all based in Aden, benefit from the diesel subsidies. We businessmen pay (the much higher) market rates for oil products," Anam said. (Note: ROYG and private sector contacts have long singled out the Aden Refinery as a significant corruption node. Yemeni crude oil is refined into diesel and gasoline, allocated free of charge to a handful of military and refinery officials, then smuggled to neighboring countries to be sold at below market-rate prices. End Note.) PINNING THE BLAME ON SALEH -------------- ¶5. (C) Khaled Noman, ignoring a Political Security Organization (PSO) agent seated next to him at the May 12 lunch, blamed President Saleh personally for the deteriorating political climate in the south and waxed nostalgic about the administrative competence of authorities during the British occupation of Aden in the 1960's. Hamid al-Ahmar, Islah Party leader and prominent businessman (REF B),told Econoff on May 4 that the ROYG's lack of success in quelling the Southern Movement derived from Saleh,s military mindset. Ahmar claimed he met with Saleh prior to the April 27 demonstrations to caution him against responding to the protestors with force. "I told Saleh to let the masses march; what's the worst they can do? He told me that they (the Southern Movement) only understand force." (Note: This account of Saleh's thinking runs counter to the ROYG,s repeated assurances that the use of force against the Southern Movement will only be used as a last resort, in order to save lives. End Note.) ¶6. (C) Ahmar, son of the late powerful tribal leader Sheikh Abdullah al-Ahmar, said that Saleh's power over the tribes in the south had waned in the past year, pointing to the recent refusal of several (NFI) tribal leaders from Abyan, Aden, and Lahj to attend a meeting called by Saleh the week before the April 27 demonstrations. Ahmar claimed that such a show of disrespect to the president would have been unthinkable one year ago. Nabil Hayel Saeed Anam also blamed Saleh and his circle of security advisors for viewing military shows of force as the only way forward. "He (Saleh) doesn't have the slightest clue how to address the grievances of the south. He sees confrontation as the only answer,8 Anam said. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Should the situation in the south take a sharp turn for the worse, President Saleh will be hard-pressed to count on the support of the national titans of industry. Saleh's history of dismissing the concerns of the private sector and the ROYG's blaming of the business community for the country's economic woes mean that few businessmen are wedded to the political status quo. In the absence of a viable alternative to Saleh's rule, however, the business community will continue to tolerate Saleh rather than cast its lot with a Southern Movement whose private-sector credentials are unknown. Not a single business contact faulted the Southern Movement for recent incidents; all blamed Saleh for choosing confrontation over dialogue. For the moment, incidents of violence and public calls for secession have not directly affected industrial or commercial operations. Labor strikes or mass demonstrations, however, could persuade the business community to get off the fence. END COMMENT. SECHE