LOUD CALLS FOR SOUTHERN INDEPENDENCE RATTLE THE

S E C R E T SANAA 000898

SIPDIS

FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2019
TAGS: PGOV YM
SUBJECT: LOUD CALLS FOR SOUTHERN INDEPENDENCE RATTLE THE
ROYG

Classified By: Ambassador Stephen A. Seche for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (S) SUMMARY. Buoyed by the growth of a popular Southern
Movement, a broader swath of those parts of southern society
to which post has access has declared an end to unity and is
openly advocating for separation from the former North Yemen.
A worried ROYG has employed a number of tactics ) from
calls for dialogue, to the formation of new militias and the
stifling of independent media ) to maintain Yemen's unity.
With popular support for the southern cause on the rise, the
ROYG can expect to face growing challenges to its control of
the south, particularly if it fails to meaningfully address
the underlying causes of southern discontent. END SUMMARY.

CALLS FOR INDEPENDENCE INCREASE
--------------


2. (S) In meetings across Aden on May 9, contacts including
human rights activists, members of the political parties and
journalists joined members of the Southern Movement in
speaking of independence as the only option for the former
South Yemen. Nasser al-Taweel, a representative of the
Southern Movement's Najah faction, told PolOff that the
movement would announce the independence of the south on May
22 in Aden. "There is no hope of saving Yemen's unity," he
said. Human rights activist Mohammed Qasem said, "Unity?
What unity? For the south this does not exist." Ali
Munasser, Chief of the Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP) in Aden,
who spent six months in prison in 2008, and Abdul-Nasser
Ba-Habib, Islah's Deputy Chief in Aden, confirmed that, in
the south, the opposition parties are officially part of the
Southern Movement. "The time for being quiet and feeling
ashamed of this is over," Munasser told PolOff on May 9.
Contacts pointed to the United Nations Security Council's
1994 resolutions 924 and 931 on Yemen for a legal
justification for the dissolution of Yemeni unity; the
resolutions state that "political differences cannot be
resolved through the use of force." Ayman Mohamed Nasser, an
Aden-based journalist and human rights activist, said that a
referendum should be held, and if the south voted against
unity, it should be allowed to peacefully dissolve its ties
with the former North Yemen.


3. (S) Meanwhile, violent clashes spread across the south in
the first two weeks of May, centered in mountainous, tribal
areas in Dhale and Lahj. Civilians in Radfan (Lahj) and
Habilain (Dhale) have reportedly abandoned homes and shops as
they fled the fighting. Security forces dispersed a large
rally in Aden on May 7 and arrested more than 40 people.
According to General Mohamed Saleh Tammah, vice president of
the movement's National Council of the Sons of the South
(NCSS) faction, 200 southern soldiers deserted the army and
returned home rather than fight against the south. A clearly
worried President Saleh sent a delegation led by former
Minister of Local Administration AbdulKader al-Hilal to
negotiate a truce in Radfan. Although the ROYG announced the
delegation's "success" on May 4, contacts in Aden disputed
this assessment. Southern Movement leaders complained that
troops were slow to withdraw, and Second Secretary of the
Yemeni Socialist Party's (YSP) Aden branch Qassem Dawood told
PolOff that al-Hilal is "two-faced" and has little impact on
the decisions of his "friends in Sana'a" (President Saleh and
his allies).

BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY
--------------


4. (S) Problems in the south have quickly become the ROYG's
primary concern, and the government has employed several
strong measures to deal with the issue. President Saleh used
his May 4 speech at the ruling General People's Congress
(GPC) annual conference to assure listeners that "everything
is under control" in Yemen, but warned that the ROYG was
willing to use force to preserve Yemen's unity. President
Saleh is paying people to "stay in line" in the south,
according to Murad Zafir at the National Democratic Institute
(NDI) and other Sana'a sources. Several tanks were sent to
guard the Presidential Palace in Aden in early May, according
to Nasser. On May 3, Minister of Foreign Affairs Abubakr
al-Qirbi called Arab ambassadors together for a rare session
in which he urged them to shut off the channels of support
for southern sedition. (Note: A number of high-profile
southern leaders live in neighboring countries. The media
reported on May 11 that former Vice President of the People's
Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) Ali Salim al-Baydh
planned to move from Muscat to London. End Note.) Deputy
Foreign Minister Muhi al-Deen al-Dhabi, however, told the DCM
on May 6 that the ROYG had been very concerned about the

southern issue, but was less worried after the international
community made statements in support of Yemen's unity.


5. (S) The ROYG has publicly created "Committees to Defend
Unity" across the south. Members of the Southern Movement
fear that the primary purpose of these groups is to target
the movement's supporters. (Note: There have been no
specific reports of violence against movement supporters by
these groups. End Note.) The committees, which are
particularly active in the hotspots of Lahj and Abyan,
receive money and weapons from the Ministry of Defense,
according to Dr. Mohammed al-Mekhlafi, president of the
Sana'a-based Yemen Observatory for Human Rights (YOHR).


6. (S) NCSS's Ali Haitham al-Gharib said that the ROYG was
again "using religion for politics" in the south. A group of
government-supported ulama (religious scholars) issued a
statement in early May stating "unity is a blessing from
God." Prominent Sheikh Abdul Majeed al-Zindani reportedly
warned of Yemen's division into four states and demanded a
national dialogue to solve the crisis. The Southern
Movement's leaders spoke openly about their fears that such
statements would be used as justification for killing
southerners in the name of religion. Abdullah Hassan
al-Nakhebi, another NCSS leader, told PolOff on May 9 that
the ROYG had "emptied the jails in the south of convicted
Islamists" and formed sleeper cells to be used against the
Southern Movement. Al-Nakhebi expressed particular concern
that Khalid Abdul Nabi, Sami Hassan and Nasir al-Wahishi were
capable of leading extremists against the movement. (Note:
Khalid Abdul Nabi al-Yazidi is a mujahideen faction leader in
Abyan known to be close to the ROYG. There is no further
information on Sami Hassan, although this name could refer to
Sami Diyan, another extremist leader in Abyan. Nasir
al-Wahishi is the emir of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
End Note.)


7. (S) In a bid to limit coverage of ongoing violence and
demonstrations in the south, the ROYG has begun a campaign to
silence independent media. On May 4, the Ministry of the
Interior (MOI) opened cases against seven newspapers,
including al-Ayyam, which operates the only independent
printing press in southern Yemen. "How can I read about my
country without newspapers?" human rights activist Radia
Shamser Ali said on May 9. Al-Ayyam's Editor in Chief Basha
Bashraheel said the ROYG had confiscated over 50,000 copies
of the paper and it had not been printed since May 4.

FOR THE MOVEMENT, FULL STEAM AHEAD
--------------


8. (S) On May 11, the movement announced the formation of a
new umbrella group, the Council of the Leadership of the
Peaceful Revolution of the South, which came out of a May 9
summit in Zinjibar (Abyan). Three of the movement's factions
- al-Majlis al-Watani (National Council),Harakat al-Nidhal
al-Silmi (Movement for Peaceful Struggle) and Harakat
al-Istiqlal (Independence Movement) - have already united,
and Najah, a fourth faction, is expected to join soon.
Al-Baydh and Sheikh Tariq al-Fadhli were mentioned as two of
the movement's up-and-coming leaders. "We have accepted
Tariq al-Fadhli as a brother," Najah's al-Taweel said.
Deputy Foreign Minister al-Dhabi, however, described
al-Fadhli as an opportunist ) not a true supporter of the
movement - who was looking to take advantage of the chaos in
Abyan to reestablish his family's historic sultanate there.
Salah al-Shanfari, head of Najah, announced on May 11 that
al-Baydh is the only legitimate leader of the south.

COMMENT
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9. (S) During the last three months, the Southern Movement
has grown rapidly in organizational strength and has also
succeeded in encouraging a number of politically active
southerners to support the cause overtly. With calls for
independence echoing in demonstrations across the south, the
southern issue has quickly become a major concern for
President Saleh. He has made it clear that he will fight to
preserve a unified Yemen, but the ROYG's heavy-handed tactics
in southern tribal areas and major cities have spurred a
cycle of violent clashes likely to continue into the summer.
END COMMENT.
SECHE