LOUD CALLS FOR SOUTHERN INDEPENDENCE RATTLE THE

S E C R E T SANAA 000898 SIPDIS FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2019 TAGS: PGOV YM SUBJECT: LOUD CALLS FOR SOUTHERN INDEPENDENCE RATTLE THE ROYG Classified By: Ambassador Stephen A. Seche for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (S) SUMMARY. Buoyed by the growth of a popular Southern Movement, a broader swath of those parts of southern society to which post has access has declared an end to unity and is openly advocating for separation from the former North Yemen. A worried ROYG has employed a number of tactics ) from calls for dialogue, to the formation of new militias and the stifling of independent media ) to maintain Yemen's unity. With popular support for the southern cause on the rise, the ROYG can expect to face growing challenges to its control of the south, particularly if it fails to meaningfully address the underlying causes of southern discontent. END SUMMARY. CALLS FOR INDEPENDENCE INCREASE -------------- ¶2. (S) In meetings across Aden on May 9, contacts including human rights activists, members of the political parties and journalists joined members of the Southern Movement in speaking of independence as the only option for the former South Yemen. Nasser al-Taweel, a representative of the Southern Movement's Najah faction, told PolOff that the movement would announce the independence of the south on May 22 in Aden. "There is no hope of saving Yemen's unity," he said. Human rights activist Mohammed Qasem said, "Unity? What unity? For the south this does not exist." Ali Munasser, Chief of the Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP) in Aden, who spent six months in prison in 2008, and Abdul-Nasser Ba-Habib, Islah's Deputy Chief in Aden, confirmed that, in the south, the opposition parties are officially part of the Southern Movement. "The time for being quiet and feeling ashamed of this is over," Munasser told PolOff on May 9. Contacts pointed to the United Nations Security Council's 1994 resolutions 924 and 931 on Yemen for a legal justification for the dissolution of Yemeni unity; the resolutions state that "political differences cannot be resolved through the use of force." Ayman Mohamed Nasser, an Aden-based journalist and human rights activist, said that a referendum should be held, and if the south voted against unity, it should be allowed to peacefully dissolve its ties with the former North Yemen. ¶3. (S) Meanwhile, violent clashes spread across the south in the first two weeks of May, centered in mountainous, tribal areas in Dhale and Lahj. Civilians in Radfan (Lahj) and Habilain (Dhale) have reportedly abandoned homes and shops as they fled the fighting. Security forces dispersed a large rally in Aden on May 7 and arrested more than 40 people. According to General Mohamed Saleh Tammah, vice president of the movement's National Council of the Sons of the South (NCSS) faction, 200 southern soldiers deserted the army and returned home rather than fight against the south. A clearly worried President Saleh sent a delegation led by former Minister of Local Administration AbdulKader al-Hilal to negotiate a truce in Radfan. Although the ROYG announced the delegation's "success" on May 4, contacts in Aden disputed this assessment. Southern Movement leaders complained that troops were slow to withdraw, and Second Secretary of the Yemeni Socialist Party's (YSP) Aden branch Qassem Dawood told PolOff that al-Hilal is "two-faced" and has little impact on the decisions of his "friends in Sana'a" (President Saleh and his allies). BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY -------------- ¶4. (S) Problems in the south have quickly become the ROYG's primary concern, and the government has employed several strong measures to deal with the issue. President Saleh used his May 4 speech at the ruling General People's Congress (GPC) annual conference to assure listeners that "everything is under control" in Yemen, but warned that the ROYG was willing to use force to preserve Yemen's unity. President Saleh is paying people to "stay in line" in the south, according to Murad Zafir at the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and other Sana'a sources. Several tanks were sent to guard the Presidential Palace in Aden in early May, according to Nasser. On May 3, Minister of Foreign Affairs Abubakr al-Qirbi called Arab ambassadors together for a rare session in which he urged them to shut off the channels of support for southern sedition. (Note: A number of high-profile southern leaders live in neighboring countries. The media reported on May 11 that former Vice President of the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) Ali Salim al-Baydh planned to move from Muscat to London. End Note.) Deputy Foreign Minister Muhi al-Deen al-Dhabi, however, told the DCM on May 6 that the ROYG had been very concerned about the southern issue, but was less worried after the international community made statements in support of Yemen's unity. ¶5. (S) The ROYG has publicly created "Committees to Defend Unity" across the south. Members of the Southern Movement fear that the primary purpose of these groups is to target the movement's supporters. (Note: There have been no specific reports of violence against movement supporters by these groups. End Note.) The committees, which are particularly active in the hotspots of Lahj and Abyan, receive money and weapons from the Ministry of Defense, according to Dr. Mohammed al-Mekhlafi, president of the Sana'a-based Yemen Observatory for Human Rights (YOHR). ¶6. (S) NCSS's Ali Haitham al-Gharib said that the ROYG was again "using religion for politics" in the south. A group of government-supported ulama (religious scholars) issued a statement in early May stating "unity is a blessing from God." Prominent Sheikh Abdul Majeed al-Zindani reportedly warned of Yemen's division into four states and demanded a national dialogue to solve the crisis. The Southern Movement's leaders spoke openly about their fears that such statements would be used as justification for killing southerners in the name of religion. Abdullah Hassan al-Nakhebi, another NCSS leader, told PolOff on May 9 that the ROYG had "emptied the jails in the south of convicted Islamists" and formed sleeper cells to be used against the Southern Movement. Al-Nakhebi expressed particular concern that Khalid Abdul Nabi, Sami Hassan and Nasir al-Wahishi were capable of leading extremists against the movement. (Note: Khalid Abdul Nabi al-Yazidi is a mujahideen faction leader in Abyan known to be close to the ROYG. There is no further information on Sami Hassan, although this name could refer to Sami Diyan, another extremist leader in Abyan. Nasir al-Wahishi is the emir of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. End Note.) ¶7. (S) In a bid to limit coverage of ongoing violence and demonstrations in the south, the ROYG has begun a campaign to silence independent media. On May 4, the Ministry of the Interior (MOI) opened cases against seven newspapers, including al-Ayyam, which operates the only independent printing press in southern Yemen. "How can I read about my country without newspapers?" human rights activist Radia Shamser Ali said on May 9. Al-Ayyam's Editor in Chief Basha Bashraheel said the ROYG had confiscated over 50,000 copies of the paper and it had not been printed since May 4. FOR THE MOVEMENT, FULL STEAM AHEAD -------------- ¶8. (S) On May 11, the movement announced the formation of a new umbrella group, the Council of the Leadership of the Peaceful Revolution of the South, which came out of a May 9 summit in Zinjibar (Abyan). Three of the movement's factions - al-Majlis al-Watani (National Council),Harakat al-Nidhal al-Silmi (Movement for Peaceful Struggle) and Harakat al-Istiqlal (Independence Movement) - have already united, and Najah, a fourth faction, is expected to join soon. Al-Baydh and Sheikh Tariq al-Fadhli were mentioned as two of the movement's up-and-coming leaders. "We have accepted Tariq al-Fadhli as a brother," Najah's al-Taweel said. Deputy Foreign Minister al-Dhabi, however, described al-Fadhli as an opportunist ) not a true supporter of the movement - who was looking to take advantage of the chaos in Abyan to reestablish his family's historic sultanate there. Salah al-Shanfari, head of Najah, announced on May 11 that al-Baydh is the only legitimate leader of the south. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (S) During the last three months, the Southern Movement has grown rapidly in organizational strength and has also succeeded in encouraging a number of politically active southerners to support the cause overtly. With calls for independence echoing in demonstrations across the south, the southern issue has quickly become a major concern for President Saleh. He has made it clear that he will fight to preserve a unified Yemen, but the ROYG's heavy-handed tactics in southern tribal areas and major cities have spurred a cycle of violent clashes likely to continue into the summer. END COMMENT. SECHE