YEMEN: HOUTHI HEAD POSSIBLY DEAD, BUT REBELS

S E C R E T SANAA 002287 NOFORN SIPDIS FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND INR JYAPHE E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PREF MOPS YM SA SUBJECT: YEMEN: HOUTHI HEAD POSSIBLY DEAD, BUT REBELS PERSIST REF: A. SANAA 1937 ¶B. RIYADH 1667 ¶C. SANAA 2227 Classified By: CDA Angie Bryan for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. With the ROYG and international community refocused on the long-running battle against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the civil war against the Houthi rebels in northern Sa'ada governorate continues to rage, despite rumors that Houthi commander Abdulmalik al-Houthi is dead. Local sources report that airstrikes increased in late December, and relief organizations describe an increasingly dire humanitarian situation with an influx of thousands of new IDPs and a general population hard-hit by nearly five months of continual war. With the ROYG determined to end the conflict militarily and the Houthis able to operate successfully at the local level, Yemen will welcome the new year still embroiled in this five-year-old conflict. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (S/NF) For the second time since the August 2009 start of the Sixth War in Sa'ada, rumors have swirled regarding the welfare and whereabouts of top Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi (Ref A). Official media began reporting on December 20 that Houthi died from wounds sustained in mid-December airstrikes in the Matara district of Sa'ada and was immediately buried. Foreign Minister Abubakr al-Qirbi, however, told the CDA on December 28 that he "could not authenticate rumors of Abdulmalik al-Houthi's death," but Qirbi noted that it was odd that Houthi had not made any public statements in weeks, even during the Shiite holy day of Ashoura on December 27. ICRC Head of Delegation Jean-Nicolas Marti told the CDA on December 28 that the Saudi Ambassador to Yemen had told him that the Saudis were "sure" that Houthi was dead because of radio intercepts from the rebels. (Note: Sensitive reporting indicates that Saudi officials believe Houthi died on December 23 of wounds sustained from December 16 airstrikes in Yemeni territory. End Note.) Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdusalam, however, issued a statement on December 28 denying reports of Houthi's death. ¶3. (S/NF) The ROYG has continued heavy battles against the Houthi rebels, with local sources reporting an increase in the intensity of airstrikes in late December. Continuing the ROYG's firm stance on defeating the Houthis militarily before considering a political settlement, Qirbi told the CDA, "We are not going to end the Sixth War only to prepare for the seventh." The ICRC's Marti said his local staff in Sa'ada City estimate that government forces now control about 75 percent of the city, whereas the Houthis controlled most of the city as recently as November. ¶4. (C) Civilian casualties and a mushrooming IDP population continue to make news on the humanitarian front. Local media reported that a December 20 airstrike in Sa'ada's northern Razah district killed 54 people, including women and children, a week after a strike on a market town in the area reportedly killed up to 73 people (Ref C). Sa'ada Governor Hassan Mana'a told official media on December 28 that the Houthis had killed 500 civilians since August. UN Resident Coordinator Pratibha Mehta said that the UN's camps had received an influx of new refugees since December 21. The ICRC's Marti said that its camps in Saada City, al-Buqa and al-Madaba all saw increases in late December as well; ICRC's Sub-Delegation Head in Sa'ada Irfan Sulejmani said that "a few thousand new families" had shown up at the camps in the last few days. Of the perhaps 200,000 IDPs from the Sa'ada conflict, relief groups estimate that they can provide services to less than half. The ROYG also established a new committee to oversee the IDP camps, headed by former Aden Governor Mohammed Ahmed Kohlani, according to Qirbi, and continues to hold regular meetings with donor countries regarding aid to Sa'ada. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) Although Houthi's death, if confirmed, would prove a symbolic victory for the ROYG and perhaps a blow to Houthi morale, it is doubtful that his death alone would end the years-long conflict. Abdulmalik is only the latest in a string of Houthi brothers who have led the rebel movement since 2004. Press reports have stated that Abdulmalik's brother-in-law, Yousef al-Madani, may have already taken over leadership of the organization. Relief organizations such as ICRC report that in their dealings with the Houthis, they assess that local leaders have a great degree of autonomy because of the difficulty in communicating among Houthi leaders. The ROYG, however, still appears determined to end the conflict militarily. END COMMENT. BRYAN