YEMEN: HOUTHI HEAD POSSIBLY DEAD, BUT REBELS

S E C R E T SANAA 002287

NOFORN
SIPDIS

FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND INR JYAPHE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PREF MOPS YM SA
SUBJECT: YEMEN: HOUTHI HEAD POSSIBLY DEAD, BUT REBELS
PERSIST

REF: A. SANAA 1937

B. RIYADH 1667

C. SANAA 2227

Classified By: CDA Angie Bryan for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. With the ROYG and international community
refocused on the long-running battle against al-Qaeda in the
Arabian Peninsula, the civil war against the Houthi rebels in
northern Sa'ada governorate continues to rage, despite rumors
that Houthi commander Abdulmalik al-Houthi is dead. Local
sources report that airstrikes increased in late December,
and relief organizations describe an increasingly dire
humanitarian situation with an influx of thousands of new
IDPs and a general population hard-hit by nearly five months
of continual war. With the ROYG determined to end the
conflict militarily and the Houthis able to operate
successfully at the local level, Yemen will welcome the new
year still embroiled in this five-year-old conflict. END
SUMMARY.


2. (S/NF) For the second time since the August 2009 start of
the Sixth War in Sa'ada, rumors have swirled regarding the
welfare and whereabouts of top Houthi leader Abdulmalik
al-Houthi (Ref A). Official media began reporting on
December 20 that Houthi died from wounds sustained in
mid-December airstrikes in the Matara district of Sa'ada and
was immediately buried. Foreign Minister Abubakr al-Qirbi,
however, told the CDA on December 28 that he "could not
authenticate rumors of Abdulmalik al-Houthi's death," but
Qirbi noted that it was odd that Houthi had not made any
public statements in weeks, even during the Shiite holy day
of Ashoura on December 27. ICRC Head of Delegation
Jean-Nicolas Marti told the CDA on December 28 that the Saudi
Ambassador to Yemen had told him that the Saudis were "sure"
that Houthi was dead because of radio intercepts from the
rebels. (Note: Sensitive reporting indicates that Saudi
officials believe Houthi died on December 23 of wounds
sustained from December 16 airstrikes in Yemeni territory.
End Note.) Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdusalam, however,
issued a statement on December 28 denying reports of Houthi's
death.


3. (S/NF) The ROYG has continued heavy battles against the
Houthi rebels, with local sources reporting an increase in
the intensity of airstrikes in late December. Continuing the
ROYG's firm stance on defeating the Houthis militarily before
considering a political settlement, Qirbi told the CDA, "We
are not going to end the Sixth War only to prepare for the
seventh." The ICRC's Marti said his local staff in Sa'ada
City estimate that government forces now control about 75
percent of the city, whereas the Houthis controlled most of
the city as recently as November.


4. (C) Civilian casualties and a mushrooming IDP population
continue to make news on the humanitarian front. Local media
reported that a December 20 airstrike in Sa'ada's northern
Razah district killed 54 people, including women and
children, a week after a strike on a market town in the area
reportedly killed up to 73 people (Ref C). Sa'ada Governor
Hassan Mana'a told official media on December 28 that the
Houthis had killed 500 civilians since August. UN Resident
Coordinator Pratibha Mehta said that the UN's camps had
received an influx of new refugees since December 21. The
ICRC's Marti said that its camps in Saada City, al-Buqa and
al-Madaba all saw increases in late December as well; ICRC's
Sub-Delegation Head in Sa'ada Irfan Sulejmani said that "a
few thousand new families" had shown up at the camps in the
last few days. Of the perhaps 200,000 IDPs from the Sa'ada
conflict, relief groups estimate that they can provide
services to less than half. The ROYG also established a new
committee to oversee the IDP camps, headed by former Aden
Governor Mohammed Ahmed Kohlani, according to Qirbi, and
continues to hold regular meetings with donor countries
regarding aid to Sa'ada.

COMMENT
--------------


5. (C) Although Houthi's death, if confirmed, would prove a
symbolic victory for the ROYG and perhaps a blow to Houthi
morale, it is doubtful that his death alone would end the
years-long conflict. Abdulmalik is only the latest in a
string of Houthi brothers who have led the rebel movement
since 2004. Press reports have stated that Abdulmalik's
brother-in-law, Yousef al-Madani, may have already taken over
leadership of the organization. Relief organizations such as

ICRC report that in their dealings with the Houthis, they
assess that local leaders have a great degree of autonomy
because of the difficulty in communicating among Houthi
leaders. The ROYG, however, still appears determined to end
the conflict militarily. END COMMENT.
BRYAN