WATER RESOURCES FALL AS WATER SCARCITY RISES ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SANAA 002058

SIPDIS

NEA/ARP FOR ANDREW MACDONALD
EMBASSY AMMAN FOR MANU BHALLA
OES FOR AARON SALZBURG
USAID FOR CHRIS KISCO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2019
TAGS: EAGR EAID MASS PGOV SENV SOCI YM
SUBJECT: WATER RESOURCES FALL AS WATER SCARCITY RISES ON
NATIONAL AGENDA

REF: A. SANAA 1692

B. SANAA 813

C. 08 SANAA 1176

Classified By: Ambassador Stephen Seche for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. Water remains a socially threatening, yet
politically sensitive subject in Yemen; government action has
stagnated as water resources continue to decline. The lack
of regulation of drilling rigs and the cultivation of qat are
largely responsible for the continuing decline of water
resources. The lack of water has resulted in water riots in
the governorates of Aden, Lahj, and Abyan. Water scarcity
has health consequences and has been linked to a dengue fever
outbreak, as people hoard water in Taiz. While the donor
community continues to warn ROYG officials of the danger of
water scarcity, there is no one clear partner in the Ministry
of Water and Environment and its associated agencies. Water
scarcity is rising on the national agenda and was the subject
of a recent cabinet meeting. Despite discussion at the
cabinet level, the ROYG has taken little action to approach
the issue of water scarcity. End Summary.

WATER STILL SCARCE
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2. (C) Water remains a socially threatening, yet politically
sensitive subject in Yemen; government action has stagnated
as water resources continue to decline. The Minister of
Water and Environment Abdulrahman Al-Eryani characterizes the
problem as "insidious" and the biggest threat to social
stability in Yemen (REF A). According Eryani, there are more
conflicts over water than land in Yemen. Indeed, water
protests occurred in the governorates of Aden, Lahj, and
Abyan at the end of August, as people gathered together to
demand water and accountability from officials, as reported
by Yemen Times. The August 22 water riot in Aden involved
hundreds of city residents, rallying against a water shortage
in three districts. Eryani described the riot to PolOff on
September 16 as a "sign of the future" and predicts that
conflict between urban and rural areas over water will lead
to violence.


3. (U) Despite the ROYG having a comprehensive environmental
law and a National Water Strategy, enforcement of the law and
implementation of policy remains a challenge. A large part
of the problem is that Yemen has over 900 rigs for drilling,
largely unregulated by the ROYG. Drilling rigs, in fact, are
subsidized and exempt from custom duties. While the ROYG's
water law is one of the best in the region, according to
Eryani, it cannot be implemented without controlling the
rigs. An alternative to regulating the rigs is to
nationalize them, which would cost $100-150 million. Because
of illegal rigs, 14 out of 16 aquifers are depleted in Yemen.
Eryani said that the Sa'ada aquifer is in the worst
condition and the lack of water is one of the causes of the
conflict, although no one is talking about it. Governorates
particularly affected by water shortages include Sana'a,
Aden, Abyan, Lahj, Taiz, and Sa'ada.


4. (U) The water scarcity situation is only projected to get
worse as the population increases and agricultural use of
water, particularly in the production of qat, expands.
(Note: According to Eryani, 85 percent of water is used in
agriculture and up to 50 percent is used in the production of
qat alone. End Note.) Yet the effects of water scarcity
will leave the rich and powerful largely unaffected. Fathi
Fahem, an influential businessman, told EconOff that counter
to Sana'a city regulations, he had drilled his own personal
backyard well to a depth of more than 800 meters. Hamid
al-Ahmar jokingly told EconOff in August of his rivalry with
next door neighbor BG Ali Muhsen al-Ahmar regarding their
competing wells, which drain the same Hadda water basin.
(Comment: These examples illustrate how the rich always have
a creative way of getting water, which not only is
unavailable to the poor, but also cuts into the
unreplenishable resources. End Comment.)

DENGUE FEVER OUTBREAK LINKED TO WATER HOARDING
-------------- -


5. (U) Water shortages have led desperate people to take
desperate measures with equally desperate consequences.
Residents of Taiz are hoarding water, keeping it everywhere
in their homes in open containers, providing breeding grounds
for mosquitoes carrying dengue fever. As of October 4, there

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were 176 confirmed cases of dengue fever in Taiz, according
to Dr. Abulhakeem Ali Al-Kohlani, Director General of Control
and Surveillance at the Ministry of Public Health and
Population. Kohlani told EconOff that this outbreak is
unfortunately not a new event. Since 2003, there have been
cases of dengue fever in five governorates, and the outbreaks
have been particularly concentrated in the capital. The
incidence of dengue fever is rising as more people store
water in their homes in an attempt to prepare for impending
and inevitable water shortages. So far, there have been no
deaths from this untreatable disease, for which there is no
vaccine, Kohlani told EconOff on October 5. Given a sharp
increase in severe cases, which must be hospitalized, the
Yemeni health system may face capacity issues in treating
affected individuals.

NO CRYSTAL CLEAR SOLUTION TO SHORTAGES
--------------


6. (C) The problem of water scarcity is multifaceted and
murky and the solution is far from streamlined. While the
donor community continues to warn ROYG officials of the
danger of water scarcity, there is no one clear partner in
the government to address water issues. In fact, the
Ministry of Water and its associated agencies appear to be
getting only weaker in terms of resources and capacity. Ali
Kassim Manshalin, Senior Program Officer at KFW Development
Bank, told EconOff on September 15 that all the qualified
people have left the Water Ministry. While Minister Eryani
understands the issues, he is powerless to change policies,
particularly since the vast majority (85 percent) of water is
used in agriculture and controlled by the Ministry of
Agriculture and Irrigation.


7. (C) In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture and
Irrigation is often at odds with the Ministry of Water and
Environment, as the Agriculture Ministry focuses on the
supply side of the equation, while the Water Ministry focuses
on the demand side. Propped up by diesel subsidies, which
allow farmers access to water pumps in order to irrigate
their qat fields, the supply side tends to dominate.
Removing diesel subsidies would make water use more
efficient, as many farms would no longer be sustainable, but
would also be potentially politically destabilizing as the
poor would be greatly affected. The discovery of a new
aquifer near SAFER (oil company) on the way to Mukalla is
used as a fallback strategy for ROYG officials from both
ministries.


8. (C) Water scarcity is rising on the national agenda, and
was the subject of the October 20 cabinet meeting. The
ministers of Water and Agriculture are working together in at
least one instance and have written a joint letter to
President Saleh opposing the plans for a new dam in
al-Kharad. According to Eryani, Saleh is passionate about
dams, believes that the ancient Marib dam is a "sign of
civilization and prosperity," and thinks that Yemenis could
achieve the same heights if they build a similar dam in
al-Khared, 65 kilometers northeast of Sana'a. (Comment: The
Marib dam was a diversionary structure, not a storage dam
like the proposed al-Khared dam. Due to evaporation, the
al-Khared dam would become a large salt lake, defeating its
original purpose. End Comment.) In general, dams are often
built without long-term plans and opposed by the donor
community, said Manshalin to EconOff.


9. (C) Although the Water Ministry and its associated
agencies remain disjointed organizations without much power,
helping the ROYG find a solution to the problem of water
scarcity remains a major goal of the donor community. The
introduction of modern irrigation may be a viable option; a
World Bank study determined that just by using drip
irrigation, water efficiency could rise from 30-35 percent to
70 percent. Implementation of this program is estimated to
cost USD three million and would save 14 million cubic meters
of water per year. Just by using modern irrigation, farms
could be 25 times more efficient. Moreover, modern
irrigation is a one-time investment, has an immediate effect,
and is sustainable.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) Yemen continues to suffer from bad public policy in
dealing with the intertwined relationship between water
scarcity, agriculture, and public health. The recent water

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riots in Aden, Lahj, and Abyan and the outbreak of dengue
fever in Taiz could be a sign of the future. Due to ROYG
inefficiencies, the population is left to obtain water, by
hook or by crook, by hoarding water or by digging deep,
illegal wells. Despite discussion at the cabinet level, the
ROYG has taken little action to approach the issue of water
scarcity. In the face of water shortages, Yemenis in affected
areas will continue to store water at home or may be
relegated to rallying in the streets due to the lack of
service. End Comment.
SECHE