SA'ADA: HOUTHIS PUSH OUTWARD, THOUSANDS OF

S E C R E T SANAA 002030

NOFORN
SIPDIS

FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND INR JYAPHE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2019
TAGS: MCAP MOPS PGOV PHUM PREL PTER YM
SUBJECT: SA'ADA: HOUTHIS PUSH OUTWARD, THOUSANDS OF
CIVILIANS TRAPPED

REF: SANAA 2029

Classified By: Ambassador Stephen Seche for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. The vast majority of Sa'ada governorate
appears to be under Houthi control, including much of western
Sa'ada, where the rebels took Razeh's military airport;
northwestern Sa'ada; and eastern Sa'ada, where they have
opened a new front. One exception is Sa'ada City, most of
which the ROYG controls, except for a part of the walled
historic quarter. Despite heavy fighting over strategic
areas, neither side appears to have significantly advanced,
and as the war approaches its fourth month, most observers
conclude that neither side is winning. Relief agencies
believe that aid donated for the people of Sa'ada from
private individuals and businesses in Yemen is being diverted
to the military and onto the market. As the fighting
spreads, aid delivery routes may be further restricted and
civilians will increasingly be caught in the crossfire, as
neither the ROYG nor the Houthis is taking the necessary
precautions to protect civilians. END SUMMARY.

GROUND-TRUTHING FROM RELIEF AGENCIES
--------------


2. (C) Finding out the ground truth about the war in Sa'ada
is extremely difficult. Mobile phones are blocked, and
journalists and NGOs are denied access to the governorate.
(Note: Rajeh Badi of al-Sahwa and Samir Jubran of al-Masdar
told EmbOff on November 3 that they have four incognito
correspondents in Sa'ada governorate who are able to report
from the field. End Note.) The official media reports daily
ROYG victories, and President Saleh told the Ambassador on
October 26 that "we are winning every day." However, the
Houthis claim victories over the same areas, often providing
video clips as evidence. Helping to make sense of these
confusing and contradictory accounts are the UN and local
relief agencies that have some access to the war-torn
governorate and a limited ability to communicate what they
see to the outside world. On November 3 and 4,
representatives of the UN High Commission for Refugees
(UNHCR) and the World Food Program (WFP),respectively,
provided PolOff an assessment of the war in Sa'ada that
substantially contradicts the official picture.

SA'ADA CITY: CIVILIANS CAUGHT IN CROSSFIRE
--------------


3. (C) According to WFP Representative Gian Carlo Cirri, the
ROYG controls most of Sa'ada City, but it is a "very
volatile, very fluid" situation. The frontline's distance
from the city ranges from 500 meters to two kilometers. It's
a crescent-shaped front that hugs the western limit of the
city, but the Houthis are able to enter the city almost every
day. On several occasions there has been fighting in the
Republican Palace, the symbol of central government power.
Cirri said there is also a front within Sa'ada City itself:
The historic walled quarter known as the "old city" is a
Houthi stronghold, but it is surrounded by government forces
and the two parties regularly exchange fire.


4. (C) In the al-Sam IDP camp on the outskirts of Sa'ada
City, which houses about 200 families (between 1000 and 1400
people),UNHCR reported that Yemeni civilians were killed and
wounded on October 29 when a rocket or a mortar round landed
in the camp. Claire Bourgeois, UNHCR Representative, told
PolOff on November 2 that the ROYG had parked an army tank
next to the IDP camp in response to reports that the Houthis
were gathering on the other side of the camp and possibly
infiltrating it. While the circumstances are unclear, it
appears that the ROYG then fired across the camp and a rocket
or mortar round landed inside it, killing two civilians,
severely injuring two others -) one of whom later died -)
and wounding nine children. Bourgeois said both parties are
responsible for failing to take precautions to protect
civilians caught in the cross-fire. "The fact is, the camp
is there and no one asked them to leave" or tried to evacuate
them, she said.

EASTERN SA'ADA: NEW FRONT OPENS, AID CONVOYS BLOCKED
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Cirri reported the Houthis have opened up a new front
in the war in eastern Sa'ada governorate. That part of the
governorate had been relatively accessible as a thoroughfare
for aid deliveries because of the lack of fighting. Cirri's
account of a new eastern front was corroborated by Ahmed

al-Haj, AP correspondent in Yemen, who told PolOff on October
27 that during the previous week the Houthis had closed off
the eastern routes into Sa'ada governorate because the army
was using them to resupply. Cirri is concerned that fighting
on the new eastern front will completely cut the main
humanitarian supply line into Sa'ada. He told PolOff that
for nearly three weeks, the government blocked a joint
WFP-UNHCR convoy of five aid trucks from passing through
al-Boque. The trucks were finally allowed to pass on October

31. WFP is exploring alternate routes for aid delivery in
case that route is closed again.

NW SA'ADA: CIVILIANS TRAPPED BETWEEN HOUTHIS AND BORDER
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Cirri reported that for the past four weeks, Baqim
district in northwestern Sa'ada has been under Houthi
control. As a result, IDPs were pushed further north, and
according to Bourgeois, there are now approximately 7,000
IDPs stranded in seven settlements, scattered in an area two
kilometers from the Saudi border and less than seven
kilometers from Houthi territory. Cirri said the Houthis
have displaced local tribal authorities throughout northern
Sa'ada. WFP successfully delivered a convoy of food from
Sana'a through Saudi Arabia to reach the IDPs sandwiched in
that area.

NOT ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
--------------


7. (C) According to Cirri, the area west of Sa'ada City is
the "natural, ancestral" home of the Zaydis and therefore a
Houthi stronghold. The Houthis have recently expanded
further westward, taking Razeh district. Local media and the
Houthis reported that the Houthis took the military airport
there, along with a large cache of weapons and munitions.
Melika Faim, Deputy Director of Operations for Medecins Sans
Frontieres (MSF),told PolOff on October 21 that during the
battle for control of the district, an MSF-hospital was hit
while patients and staff were inside. Bourgeois and Cirri
said that the army is trying to re-take the area. According
to Bourgeois, there have been reports of an additional 20
civilians killed and 25 to 30 injured, mostly in their homes,
during the course of the fighting.


8. (C) Who controls Malahidh district, south of Razeh, is
much less clear. According to Cirri, Malahidh is "more under
Houthi control than government control," and Bourgeois
believes that Malahidh is "absolutely controlled" by the
Houthis. GPC newspaper Al-Mutamar reported on November 1
that the "military and security units launched a large-scale
offensive" there, possibly to re-take it. But Bourgeois
denied that the offensive was occurring, explaining that the
staff and residents in Mazraq IDP camp, south of Malahidh,
can hear the bombing in Malahidh, and "right now they're not
hearing anything." However, other observers report that the
ROYG gained control of parts of Malahidh, cornering the
Houthis by the Saudi border; the Houthi then attacked Saudi
border guards in the Jabal al-Dukhan mountain area (reftel).

NO PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT CIVILIANS
--------------


9. (C) A major concern of humanitarian relief agencies is
that neither the ROYG nor the Houthis take any precautionary
measures to protect civilians who might be caught in the
crossfire. Bourgeois said that on only one occasion, in Harf
Sufyan in August, did the authorities warn the local
population to evacuate because of imminent fighting. She is
not aware that either side has issued warnings since.

SUSPICIONS OF AID DIVERSION
--------------


10. (C) Gareth Richards, Country Director of Care
International Yemen, told PolOff on November 2 he suspects
the "massive mobilization" of aid within Yemen is being
diverted to military bases and onto the market. (Note: This
is not aid distributed by UN agencies or international NGOs,
but aid donations from citizens and businesses of Yemen "for
the people of Sa'ada." PolOff observed a fleet of trucks
parked outside the Saleh Mosque in central Sana'a being
loaded with aid donations for Sa'ada. President Saleh also
referred to this popular mobilization when he met with the
Ambassador on October 26. End Note.) Yet Richards said no
one is tracking these private donations, coordinating their
distribution, or ensuring that the aid is getting to the real

victims of the war. Cirri agreed these donations "are not
very transparent," raising concerns that the ROYG will use
them for its own benefit. Bourgeois reported that on October
22, one such aid convoy drove northward through the Mazraq
IDP camp in order to reach a military base on the other side.
The IDPs in the camp rioted because they thought the aid was
intended for them. Conversely, the ROYG is so concerned that
aid may end up going to Houthi fighters that it is hindering
aid deliveries from UNHCR, WFP, and their implementing
partners, such as in Amran and Al-Jawf governorates, or
cutting the daily rations that can be distributed to IDPs in
half, as in Sa'ada governorate.

PROTRACTED WAR EXPECTED
--------------


11. (S/NF) Journalist Mohammed al-Qadhi told PolOff on
October 30, "In 2004, the Houthis controlled a village, and
now they control 80 percent of Sa'ada." Naseem al-Rehman,
UNICEF Communications and Advocacy Chief, agreed with that
estimate, but noted that the Houthis' territorial gains do
not necessarily imply a government loss, since very little of
the governorate was ever under central government control.
Because of the Houthis' expansion, Cirri expects a
"protracted war with an IDP caseload increasing to 200,000"
from the current estimate of 150,000. The Central Security
Forces reportedly plan to send additional battalions to
Sa'ada to clear Houthis from their bases in the old city, but
these battalions lack the relevant training (IIR6 906 0026
10),raising concerns that civilians will be caught in the
crossfire.

COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) WFP, UNHCR, other international agencies, and their
implementing partners are overcoming numerous obstacles
through their determination and creative problem-solving.
Because of their efforts, the IDPs who are accessible are
receiving life-saving food and non-food items. The
accessible IDPs are a fraction of the total population,
however, and as the fighting spreads to new fronts, there is
a real risk that even fewer IDPs will be able to receive
humanitarian aid. Furthermore, intense fighting on several
fronts is exposing civilians to danger, and this situation is
likely to worsen if the ROYG undertakes a major offensive in
Sa'ada City. Post will continue to urge both parties to take
all necessary steps to protect civilians affected by the
conflict and to agree to localized, time-bound humanitarian
ceasefires to allow for access to thousands of civilians
trapped by the conflict. END COMMENT.
SECHE