YEMEN'S SOUTH: TENS OF THOUSANDS FLOCK TO PEACEFUL

S E C R E T SANAA 001929 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND INR SMOFFATT E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2019 TAGS: PGOV YM SUBJECT: YEMEN'S SOUTH: TENS OF THOUSANDS FLOCK TO PEACEFUL OCTOBER 14 PROTESTS REF: SANAA 1892 Classified By: CDA Angie Bryan for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (S) SUMMARY. Tens of thousands of southerners traveled to Lahj, the rebellious heartland of Yemen's south, for pro-independence demonstrations organized by the Southern Movement in commemoration of the 46th anniversary of South Yemen's revolution against the British. Despite the large crowds in attendance and the ROYG's preemptive efforts to limit participation - including arresting hundreds of southerners and cutting off mobile phone and internet communications in the area ) the October 14 - 15 protests in Lahj governorate's Radfan and Yafa districts proceeded without violence. On the fringes of the movement, however, clashes broke out in Mukullah on October 14 and in Dhale' on October 16. Although they garnered only limited media attention, the Revolution Day demonstrations were noteworthy because of the massive size of the crowds publicly calling for secession ) a treasonable offense ) and the ability of movement leaders to keep thousands of angry, frustrated southerners peaceful. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (S) Demonstrations took place as planned in Lahj governorate on October 14 and 15 in commemoration of the former South Yemen's 1963 revolution against the British colonial occupation (reftel). Turn-out at the October 14 Radfan (Lahj governorate) demonstration fell short of the hoped-for 250,000 ) movement leaders say it was at least 100,000 ) but was among the largest demonstrations to date, despite ROYG efforts to limit participation. Thousands turned out on October 15 in Yafa (Lahj governorate) for a second day of demonstrations. Southern Movement supporter and businessman from al-Beidha governorate Salman al-Mashdali explained that the large turn-out was indicative of rapidly growing anti-unity sentiment across the southern governorates. He told PolOff on October 18, "The movement has completely spread to the streets. In fact, the average southern man is more radical in his demands than even the (movement's) leadership." Unusually for similar events, the day passed without any reports of clashes between security forces and protestors. The ROYG, however, attempted to clamp down on participation, conducting mass arrest campaigns prior to the event, specifically targeting the Southern Movement's mid-level leadership, according to movement leader General Nasser al-Taweel, an officer in the Air Force of the former People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY). Movement contacts also reported that mobile phone and internet communications were cut in Lahj for several days, from about October 13 ) 16. ¶3. (C) Several factions of the Southern Movement came together to hold the massive October 14 rally, led by former regime insider turned influential movement leader Tariq al-Fadhli and opposition MP Nasser al-Khabji, among others. Vice President of the former PDRY Ali Salim al-Beidh addressed the cheering crowds from his home in Vienna via satellite phone. YouTube videos posted by movement supporters showed southerners waving flags of the former PDRY, which were also painted onto houses and surrounding hillsides. The next day, October 15, Khabji, Sheikh Abdullah Hassan al-Nakhbi, General Mohammed Saleh Tammah and Yafa's paramount sheikh Yafa Aburabu al-Naqib led a day of peaceful protests in Yafa, according to press reports. The only reported clashes took place in Mukullah (Hadramout governorate) on October 14 between "masked youth" and security forces with no casualties reported and in Dhale' governorate on October 16, when a group of southerners clashed with soldiers; the media reported that an officer from the Ministry of Defense's Directorate of Military Intelligence was wounded in the fighting. The Dhale' local council, the only opposition-led local council in Yemen, announced on October 17 that it was suspending its work in protest of the October 14 arrest of lawyer Mohammed Musayd by security forces as he was returning from the Radfan rally. The Southern Movement also set up a roadblock on the main Sana'a-Aden highway in protest of Musayd's arrest, the media reported. COMMENT -------------- ¶4. (S) Movement leaders, pleased by the record turn-out for Revolution Day demonstrations, will try to use momentum from the events to reenergize the movement's base after a Ramadan respite. They are also likely to use the peaceful nature of even these large-scale demonstrations as evidence of their dedication to non-violence in an ongoing bid to convince the United States, United Nations and other members of the wary international community to support their just cause. After nearly three years of peaceful protest without any political progress, however, the movement's peaceful voices will continue to lose ground to its hawks as southerners grow increasingly desperate for any sign of change. END COMMENT. BRYAN