MODERN-DAY REVOLUTION UNLIKELY AT PLANNED OCTOBER

S E C R E T SANAA 001892 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND INR SMOFFATT E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2019 TAGS: PGOV YM SUBJECT: MODERN-DAY REVOLUTION UNLIKELY AT PLANNED OCTOBER 14 SOUTHERN MOVEMENT PROTESTS REF: SANAA 1679 Classified By: CDA Angie Bryan for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (S) SUMMARY. The Southern Movement leadership is looking for historical inspiration in Lahj governorate, the revolutionary heartland of the struggle against the British colonial occupation of southern Yemen, as it plans peaceful demonstrations on October 14 in Radfan and October 15 in Yafa. The movement, which leaders say has continued to gain popular support ) particularly in the city of Aden, plans to continue on a nonviolent track in the near future, shunning official cooperation with either al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) or the Houthi rebels. As the south heats up again this fall, the movement's trajectory ) peaceful or confrontational, pro-West or pro-AQAP ) will depend largely on the leaders that emerge on top of the shifting sea of alliances and factions. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (S) As of October 12, the majority of the Southern Movement's leadership had moved to Radfan (Lahj governorate) to finish organizing a large demonstration planned for October 14, known as Revolution Day in Yemen in commemoration of the former South Yemen's achievement of independence from the British. Demonstrations are set to continue in Yafa (Lahj/Abyan governorates) on October 15. According to Editor-in-Chief of al-Tariq newspaper Ayman Nasser, who has extensive contacts in the movement, the southerners chose Radfan and Yafa because of their historical significance in the fight against the British, the relative ease of traveling to Lahj versus Aden governorate and the comparatively lower military presence in the area. Tariq al-Fadhli, former regime insider turned movement supporter, had already traveled from Abyan to Radfan for the planned events, according to Nasser. General Nasser al-Taweel, an officer in the Air Force of the former People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) who hails from Yafa (Lahj governorate),told PolOff on October 12 that organizers were hoping for a turn-out of 250,000 participants. He warned that any voices calling for violence were likely to be ROYG infiltrators rather than legitimate supporters (see para 5). Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP) Aden Chief Ali Munasser told PolOff on October 12 that he expected the ROYG to move troops to the area ahead of time to surround the city, and would likely conduct mass arrest campaigns in an attempt to stifle the demonstrations. While Munasser said that the planners were emphasizing the peaceful nature of the protests, he admitted that tribal members throughout Lahj, Dhale' and Abyan were heavily armed on a daily basis, and would likely be carrying their usual weapons. ¶3. (S) The movement has not emerged radically different from its Ramadan respite. According to Nasser, the movement counts in its active ranks about 40,000 members, with a majority of southerners ideologically supporting the movement, but unwilling to support its activities overtly for fear of losing their government jobs or risking arrest. An American strategic consultant who visited Yemen to explore the feasibility of former PDRY President Ali Nasser Muhammed returning to the country told the CDA on October 13 that, based on his consultations in the southern governorates, a majority of southerners have now embraced the idea of an independent south Yemen. On October 6, women (two of whom were arrested),youth, urban residents, members of the minority Akhdam community, and Adenis of Indian descent publicly demonstrated for the first time in support of the southern cause, according to Nasser, who said that past demonstrations had consisted of rural Yemenis traveling into the city to demonstrate. "People have broken their silence at last," Munasser said. Taweel described the recent formation of the movement's Aden Council, on which he serves as Secretary General, with Professor Omar Jubran as President. Munasser said the south had been so quiet during Ramadan in part because the movement's finances had taken a serious hit in August and September, as Saudi officials arrested a number of expatriate supporters and stopped the flow of cash into Yemen. Ali Salim al-Beidh, former PDRY vice president now resident in Vienna, provides the lion's share of funds, according to Nasser, although expatriates from Yafa and Hadramout governorate send some funds back to supporters in their home districts. ¶4. (S) The question of leadership continues to be an ongoing one, as power shifts around a circle of influential southerners, both resident and expatriate. "The base of the movement is all in agreement, it's only the leadership that differs," Nasser said. He explained that the major disagreements among leaders involve post-independence issues ) gaining support in anticipation of popular elections and personal financial interests. Ayman described the top domestic leadership ) all of whom have seats on the movement's Revolutionary Command Council ) as consisting of Fadhli, opposition MPs from Lahj Nasser al-Khubji and Saleh al-Shanfara and former military officer from Dhale' Shallal Ali al-Shayer; Hassan Baum's National Council (Majlis al-Watani) still stands alone. "Tariq has become the most important leader in the Southern Movement," Nasser said. According to Munasser, "Tariq was able to move the street. He reenergized Abyan and made it a real part of the movement." Fadhli has "good communication" with Beidh, Ali Nasser and Mohammed Ali Ahmed, the former governor of Abyan now living in the United Kingdom. In Yafa, one of the movement's strongest footholds, lawyer and writer Ali Haytham al-Gharib, General Mohammed Saleh Tammah and Saleh al-Isay head the movement's activities. The American strategic consultant visiting Yemen said that he believes Ali Nasser has emerged as the top candidate for a potential presidency of an independent south Yemen, although southerners are not yet prepared to make this strategic move. ¶5. (S) Most of the movement's top leaders are still committed to a peaceful path. "We absolutely reject totalitarianism and terrorism," Taweel told PolOff. However, there are some indicators that elements of the movement are planning for violent confrontation with the ROYG. Nasser said he had unconfirmed reports that a shipment of 60 vehicles and the same number of Russian-made B-10 recoilless guns (82 mm) had arrived in the port of Shugra (Abyan governorate),destined for Fadhli. (Note: Nasser implied that these weapons would be mounted on the vehicles in the style popular in the Yemeni military. The B-10 guns have the capacity to destroy lightly armored vehicles, commonly used by the Ministry of Interior's Central Security Forces. End Note.) Nasser also said he had heard of large weapons caches in Dhale' governorate, including sniper weapons. The Southern Movement leaders have also gleefully followed the ROYG's military struggles in Sa'ada, and pointed to widespread dissatisfaction in the military as a positive factor for the south. "There are many soldiers leaving the war and not coming back," said Taweel. The movement's financial shortcomings, however, still prevent it from paying salaries to soldiers thinking about defecting, many of whom remain in the military because they are desperate for the income, however meager. The southerners also listed ROYG infiltration of the movement as a key concern, especially the possibility that infiltrators, many of whom are members of the Political Security Organization, would seek to stir up violence among demonstrators. These "known" infiltrators use "very extreme slogans," according to Munasser, and not only inform on the movement's members but also seek to incite violence at demonstrations. ¶6. (S) Movement contacts in Aden unanimously told PolOff that the movement was eschewing any official cooperation with either al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) or the Houthi rebels. Hassan Baum, on the fringes of the movement, recently traveled to Germany to meet with Yahya al-Houthi, according to Nasser. The southerners have also traded goodwill messages with the Houthis via the media, such as a September gesture from Abdulmalik al-Houthi to release all captured southern soldiers in Sa'ada and Fadhli's reply of gratitude. AQAP, however, represents a red line for the southerners. "Al-Qaeda will always exploit, wherever there is chaos. We know that," Munasser said. Contacts expressed particular concern about the growing presence of extremist Salafi institutions, mosques and charities across the southern governorates, which they saw as clear enemies to the type of independent state southerners hope to create (septel). On the whole, southerners still view AQAP as a creation and ally of the ROYG, which taints it permanently as a potential partner. (Note: The idea that AQAP is largely a government creation used to gain funding and support from Western allies is popular across Yemen, but particularly in the southern governorates. President Saleh's known links to the old generation of AQAP leadership, his close relationship with Afghanistan veterans and his historical tactic of deploying Islamic extremists against domestic enemies all suggest to southerners that Saleh has significant control over AQAP. End Note.) COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (S) After two months of relative calm (reftel), southerners seem ready to continue their struggle for independence with a reenergized series of demonstrations in the southern heartland. The choice to hold demonstrations in Radfan and Lahj, rather than the typical location of Aden (more easily manipulated by the ROYG) or Abyan, which would tilt the scales too far in Fadhli's direction, appears to be a smart strategic decision. Although turn-out is likely to fall short of the hoped-for 250,000, it is likely to be high, with the usual level of violence observers have come to expect from similar events. It is unlikely, however, that October 14 will hold the spark of yet another southern Yemeni revolution. END COMMENT. BRYAN