HAMID AL-AHMAR TRIES HIS HAND AT COORDINATING

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 001882 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND INR SMOFFATT NSC FOR AARON JOST OSD/POLICY FOR BRIAN GLENN E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SA SY GM EG TU LE YM SUBJECT: HAMID AL-AHMAR TRIES HIS HAND AT COORDINATING HOUTHI, SOUTHERN MOVEMENT EFFORTS REF: A. SANAA 1847 ¶B. SANAA 1617 ¶C. SANAA 430 Classified By: CDA Angie Bryan for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (S) SUMMARY: Citing his desire to throw President Saleh off balance, Hamid al-Ahmar, prominent businessman, opposition leader, and de facto head of Yemen's largest tribal confederation, told EconOff on October 6 that he is trying to coordinate the efforts of the Houthi rebels and the Southern Movement. Ahmar said he had spoken recently to exiled MP Yahya al-Houthi, brother of rebel leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi, and met with Southern Movement leader Ali Nasser Mohammed in Damascus to encourage the two parties to work together and further stretch the ROYG's already strained military resources. By activating the southern front, Ahmar hoped to force the ROYG to shift military assets away from the Sa'ada conflict. In the context of his political party's Sunni orientation and his family's staunch support for the regime against the rebels, Ahmar's outreach to the (Shiite) Houthis is a risky strategy that, if revealed, could backfire for him politically. Ahmar gave no indication of either movement's willingness to entertain his suggestion that they collaborate against Saleh. This, much like his other anti-Saleh machinations, provides ample evidence that Ahmar views politics as much a game as a vocation. END SUMMARY. CELL PHONE DIPLOMACY WITH HOUTHIS, SOUTHERN MOVEMENT -------------- -------------- ¶2. (S) Hamid al-Ahmar (strictly protect),prominent businessman, Islah Party leader, and de facto head of the Hashid tribal confederation, told EconOff on October 6 that he is trying to coordinate the efforts of the Houthis with those of the Southern Movement in order to stretch the ROYG's scarce military resources and throw President Saleh off balance. Ahmar said he had spoken recently to Berlin-based MP Yahya al-Houthi, the exiled brother of rebel leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi, by telephone for "over an hour" to test the waters for future coordination with the Southern Movement. Ahmar said he had also met with Southern Movement leader Ali Nasser Mohammed at the Four Seasons Hotel in Damascus on or around September 26 to pitch him the idea of opening direct communication with the Houthis. Remaining vague on the details of how the two movements could collaborate, Ahmar said his goal was for the Southern Movement to be "more active" in coming weeks, forcing the ROYG to shift military assets to southern Yemen and away from the Sa'ada front, thus undermining the government's latest campaign against the Houthis. ¶3. (S) Sounding positively giddy at the prospect of working with the Houthis, Ahmar denied that he is seeking to lengthen the Sa'ada conflict, instead describing his latest anti-Saleh scheming as an attempt to create a temporary alliance between two parties opposed to Saleh's rule. "For me to actively support the Houthis would be too much, too evil," Ahmar told EconOff. "But at least I can coordinate their efforts with the Southern Movement's struggle." (Comment: Given the Islah Party's Sunni orientation and Hashid's historical support for the regime against the Houthis (REF A),Ahmar's outreach to the anti-regime Shiite rebels is a potentially embarassing, high-wire act that, if revealed, could backfire politically for Ahmar and Islah. End Comment.) ¶4. (S) Ahmar expressed frustration at what he described as Yahya al-Houthi's lack of knowledge regarding key aspects of the Sa'ada conflict, but remained confident that Yahya could pass messages to his brother Abdulmalik al-Houthi on Ahmar's behalf. Dismissing the need to talk directly to Abdulmalik, whom he has described as a "criminal" in the past, Ahmar said that his conversation with Yahya was a "good start." ¶5. (S) Ahmar said he had also raised the idea of closer coordination with the Houthis in recent telephone SANAA 00001882 002 OF 002 conversations with expatriate Southern Movement leaders Haidar Abubakr al-Attas and Ali Salem al-Baidh, but said nothing of their responsiveness to the idea. Ahmar lamented that the length of the ongoing Sa'ada conflict had not yet caused rank-and-file soldiers to turn against Saleh and his close relatives in the military, as he had predicted would occur (REF B). Outlining his next steps, Ahmar said he would lead a small delegation from the JMP-affiliated opposition National Dialogue Committee, which Ahmar chairs, to meet Southern Movement leaders (NFI) in Beirut or Cairo in the coming weeks. (Note: This could refer to upcoming Egyptian Government-hosted talks between the ROYG, the Southern Movement, and the Houthis, as reported by independent newspaper al-Masdar on October 8. End Note.) COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (S) Left conspicuously unsaid was the response of Yahya al-Houthi and Southern Movement leaders to Ahmar's suggestion that they collaborate actively. The Southern Movement does not need Hamid al-Ahmar as an intermediary to communicate directly with the Houthi leadership (REF C),nor does it take orders from him. The movement's willingness to communicate regularly with Ahmar, however, is in keeping with its alleged outreach to ideologically strange bedfellows, such as al-Qaeda. The feverish pace of Ahmar's anti-Saleh plotting, along with his almost schizophrenic change in attitudes towards his would-be political allies from one meeting to the next, gives the impression that Ahmar considers politics as much a game as a vocation. During a previous conversation, the Houthis were "extremists;" now Ahmar sees them as useful interlocutors. During an August 27 encounter, Northwest Regional Commander MG Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar was a "good and honest man" (REF B); during the October 6 meeting, Ahmar singled him out as a thoroughly corrupt official, siphoning off Yemen's oil wealth. ¶7. (S) Ahmar increasingly comes across as bored with his own immense wealth and extensive business dealings; politics, specifically ways to collude with Saleh's enemies, now command center stage. Business topics that used to receive his daily attention, such as the ROYG's draft telecommunications law and his desire to expand his chain of fast food restaurants, now are unworthy of even a passing mention during hours of conversation. In this vein, Ahmar's outreach to Yahya al-Houthi may represent an attempt to demonstrate his fearlessness vis--vis the regime rather than a part of any coherent political strategy. END COMMENT. BRYAN