TOO QUIET ON THE SOUTHERN FRONT? RAMADAN PLOTTING

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 001679 NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND INR SMOFFATT E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2019 TAGS: PGOV PTER YM SUBJECT: TOO QUIET ON THE SOUTHERN FRONT? RAMADAN PLOTTING REF: A. SANAA 1447 ¶B. SANAA 430 ¶C. SANAA 1310 Classified By: Ambassador Stephen Seche for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (S) SUMMARY. After six months of increasingly violent clashes between protestors and security services, Yemen's restive southern governorates have been uncharacteristically quiet during Ramadan, even as the war in Sa'ada rages and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) claimed a late July victory against ROYG forces in Marib. While Southern Movement leadership has not yet decided to take advantage of the regime's distraction with the Houthis and AQAP, it has considered the possibility of capitalizing on the current situation with renewed efforts that could lead to a more confrontational approach to the ROYG in October. After months without progress towards their goal of independence, movement members seem to be considering adopting more radical, previously distasteful strategies and alliances to achieve their goal. END SUMMARY. "WHAT ARE WE WAITING FOR?" -------------- ¶2. (S) The south has been unusually quiet in comparison to the first seven months of 2009, and since the end of violent clashes in Abyan governorate in late July. After several months of near-weekly clashes across Lahj, Dhale', Aden, Abyan and Hadramout governorates, the onset of the holy month of Ramadan in August and September has brought such an unusual calm to the south that many political observers in Sana'a are flummoxed and worried. Sana'a University Professor of Political Science Dr. Abdullah al-Faqih and opposition Islah MP Abdulrazaq al-Hajjri, both long-time observers of the Yemeni political scene, told PolOff on September 7 that they had a feeling the southerners were planning "something big." The only break in the calm that has descended across the south are sporadic, locally concentrated protests over water shortages and rationing in Aden. The spontaneous events, thought to be the first-ever water-related protests in Yemen, began on August 23, when one person was killed and a number wounded as security services tried to disperse the crowd. ¶3. (S) Southern Movement leader Mohammed Saleh Tammah told PolOff on September 6 that, although things seem quiet in the southern governorates, the movement "has discussions every night now" about what to do next. It is continuing to organize its new leadership and has planned a National Public Conference for the South in Aden October 13-14. The movement is also lobbying the ROYG to release the hundreds of movement members currently detained. Tammah warned that if they were not released prior to the October 13 conference start, "I'm afraid we will shut down the (southern) cities." ¶4. (S) According to Tammah, the movement has split into two distinct camps ) the "hawks" and the "doves." Most of the younger generation of supporters are firmly in the rapidly growing "hawks" camp, and are pushing hard to take advantage of the ROYG's struggles in Sa'ada by opening up a second military front in the south. "A lot of people think we'll have to take advantage of the war in Sa'ada after Ramadan. They already ask, 'What are we waiting for?'" The second group of "doves," generally older in age and led by former People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PRDY) Vice President Ali Salim al-Beidh and former PDRY Prime Minister Haidar Abubakir al-Attas, both of whom live outside Yemen, want the movement to stay peaceful for at least the next six months, and then revisit their strategy. ¶5. (S) For now, the movement is paying close attention to events in Sa'ada. It has maintained contact with the Houthis and debriefs southerners in the armed services returning from the fighting. According to Tammah, southern soldiers report that the army has "collapsed" in Sa'ada and the armed services have significant morale problems (Ref A). On August 29, al-Beidh issued an appeal to southerners fighting for the government in Sa'ada, saying that the ROYG is leading them "to engage in the battlefields of death in Sa'ada" while at the same time "directing its armies to move toward the south in order to kill the valiant sons of the south in the battlefields of peaceful struggle." ¶6. (S/NF) The ROYG also appears to be preparing for renewed activity in the southern governorates as Ramadan comes to a close. According to NGA imagery, as of mid-September an SANAA 00001679 002 OF 002 armored company and a number of other infantry SUPPORT vehicles at the al-Anad barracks (Lahj governorate) were staged and ready for departure, suggesting a high level of deployment readiness, possibly in anticipation of civil unrest in southern Yemen. (Note: Forces stationed at al-Anad responded to incidents of unrest in the south throughout 2008 and 2009. End Note.) The increased alert status at al-Anad is the first known military reaction in southern Yemen since the start of the sixth war against the Houthis in mid-August. STILL NOT WILLING TO WORK WITH THE HOUTHIS -------------- ¶7. (S) Despite repeated requests from the Houthis, the movement has to date resisted formal cooperation against the ROYG, Tammah said. The Houthis have promised the southerners "anything they want" in order to convince them to join forces. The movement has resisted, however, because it is still seeking SUPPORT from Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries. Siding with the Houthis, who Riyadh believes are linked to Iran, would permanently alienate the Saudis. Movement leaders believe that Saudi Arabia wants to change Yemen's current government, and that Saudi Arabia even hatched a plan several months ago to install former PDRY President Ali Nasser Muhammed as president with powerful tribal leader and opposition Islah MP Hamid al-Ahmar as his vice president (NFI). However, Tammah said, "If Saudi doesn't help us soon, we'll have to go to Iran for help (against the ROYG)." (Comment: There is no evidence to date that the Southern Movement has connections to Iran, or that Iran would have any interest in supporting the movement. End Comment.) FLIRTING WITH AQAP -------------- ¶8. (S) As the movement grows increasingly frustrated with its lack of progress, it seems more willing to explore previously unlikely alliances with other domestic actors. On August 8, independent Aden-based newspaper editor Ayman Nasser gave PolOff a copy of a fatwa (religious decree) defending the Southern Movement, which he said was issued in July by Salafis under the title "The Shari'a Organization for Peaceful Affairs of the Sons of the South." According to Nasser, the fatwa was published by a previously unknown religious scholar in Aden and gave religious justification for a revolution in the southern governorates, widely considered to be a response to Sheikh Abdulmajid al-Zindani's July assertion that members of the Southern Movement were kafirs (nonbelievers). ¶9. (S) Six months ago, the movement's stated relationship with al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) was one of mutual disengagement, but even then movement leaders recognized that the two groups have a common foe in the ROYG (Ref B). "The real al-Qaeda," Tammah told PolOff on September 13, "is Ali Muhsin and the Yemeni government." (Comment: After several months without much progress in fighting the regime on its own, the Southern Movement might have decided to edge closer to AQAP and other religious extremists. This re-evaluation of strategy regarding collaboration with extremists might be due in part to former jihadist turned movement supporter Tariq al-Fadhli's increasig leadership role within the movement. Fadhli, wh joined the movement in May, has become a central player since his supporters, whom many say inclue current and former jihadists, provoked a serie of violent clashes with security forces in Abyan in July. End Comment.) COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (S) Despite the seeming quiet during Ramadan, the Southern Movement appears to be evolving towards a more confrontational posture, as perhaps evidenced by the violent clashes in Abyan in July (Ref C). The Southern Movement, which began in 2008 as a peaceful movement built on public demonstrations, documentation of human rights violations and an appeal to the international community, now exhibits characteristics of a more militarized movement desperate for progress ) even entertaining such previously undesirable means as an alliance with the Houthis and/or AQAP. END COMMENT. SECHE