IN POLITICAL DEADLOCK, PARTIES HOPE FOR A RAMADAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 001558 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND INR SMOFFATT E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2019 TAGS: PGOV YM SUBJECT: IN POLITICAL DEADLOCK, PARTIES HOPE FOR A RAMADAN SURPRISE REF: A. SANAA 1310 ¶B. SANAA 1190 Classified By: Ambassador Stephen Seche for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Dialogue between the ruling General People's Congress and the opposition Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) in anticipation of the 2011 parliamentary elections has been completely suspended and the gulf between the two sides has widened during the summer months. The JMP remains focused on its National Dialogue, and has promised the imminent release of a comprehensive National Salvation Plan to avert state collapse and implement needed reforms. A trust-building gesture on behalf of the ROYG ) such as a Ramadan pardon of political prisoners ) might coax the wary JMP away from the advocacy politics it has been conducting and back into electoral discussions. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) After a July 21 preparatory meeting chaired by presidential advisor Dr. Abdulkarim al-Eryani, the opposition Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) abruptly withdrew from dialogue with the ruling General People's Congress (GPC),citing events in Abyan in late July as a key reason (Ref A). While the JMP has continued to view the dialogue as an opportunity to address the overall political climate in Yemen ) the Southern Movement and conflict in Sa'ada being two key issues ) the GPC has insisted on narrowing the scope of discussion to preparation for the 2011 parliamentary elections (Ref B). In a meeting with President Saleh on August 9, Eryani told the Ambassador, "The dialogue has been suspended because the JMP wants us to overcome all of the problems in the country before we even begin talking." President Saleh said that a continued lack of dialogue would "sink the Yemeni ship," but added that if the JMP wanted to amend the Constitution, it would first have to win elections. Islah Party Chief Abdulwahab al-Ansi told the Ambassador in a meeting with the JMP heads on August 9, "We suspended the dialogue with the GPC and went to our national consultation project instead. The government needs to understand that bilateral decisions on issues that affect the whole country are not effective." ¶3. (C) Islah's Annsi said the three biggest issues standing in the way of resumption of dialogue are the hundreds of "political prisoners" across the country, silencing of independent media outlets such as independent Aden-based �00A;newspapers al-Ayyam and al-Tariq and national issues such as southern discontent and the ongoing Houthi rebellion. Al-Haq Party Chairman Hassan Zayd said, "Arrests worsen the political problem more than suspension of dialogue. Many JMP members are currently in jail." According to National Democratic Institute (NDI) Country Director Heather Therrien, the JMP continues to behave more like an advocacy organization than a political coalition. Nasserite Party Secretary General Sultan al-Atwany admitted on August 9 that his constituents would no longer trust him if he engaged in dialogue with "people who oppress us." ¶4. (C) The JMP has continued to focus on its National Dialogue, a months-long process to consult a wide swath of Yemeni society, including the Houthis and the Southern Movement, as the best option for spurring the ROYG to implement necessary reforms. The JMP has promised imminent release of a comprehensive National Salvation Plan, the culmination of its national dialogue, which will detail the reforms needed to avert state collapse. Former presidential advisor and Chairman of the JMP's National Dialogue Preparatory Committee Mohammed Salim Basenduah told the Ambassador on August 11 that the JMP was committed to a comprehensive dialogue that included the Houthis and the Southern Movement. According to Basenduah, the Preparatory Committee, a 90-member body with Hamid al-Ahmar as its secretary general, was calling the shots regarding dialogue with the GPC. NDI's Therrien, however, said the JMP party heads were still in charge of decisions. ¶5. (C) The issue of trust between the two sides remains of primary importance. "We have some hope, and then the GPC returns with even worse practices," the Nasserite's Atwany told the Ambassador on August 9. Islah's Ansi concurred, "We can't go on promises anymore." NDI's Therrien said both sides were hoping for President Saleh to make a gesture of good faith during Ramadan, such as releasing a number of political prisoners from the southern governorates. (Note: Such good-will gestures are traditional during Ramadan. In 2008, Saleh released a number of prisoners connected to the conflict in Sa'ada. End Note.) COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Ramadan begins with no apparent headway in resuming the JMP-GPC dialogue. The best hope for progress during Islam's holiest month is a trust-building gesture on behalf of the ROYG. Political prisoners have become a central issue in the political stalemate; the JMP argues that widespread arrests have destabilized the political situation and interrupted the process itself as JMP party leaders are among those detained across the southern governorates. A Ramadan pardon of political prisoners might coax the wary JMP away from the advocacy politics it has been conducting and back into electoral discussions. END COMMENT. SECHE