AS SA'ADA CONFLICT RAGES, HUMANITARIAN IMPACT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 001555 SIPDIS FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD AND INR SMOFFAT E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2019 TAGS: MCAP MOPS PGOV PHUM PREF PTER YM SUBJECT: AS SA'ADA CONFLICT RAGES, HUMANITARIAN IMPACT SPREADS Classified By: Ambassador Stephen Seche for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. As fighting continues in Sa'ada governorate, concern is growing about the conflict's humanitarian impact, with thousands of newly displaced people seeking shelter at camps in Sa'ada, Hajja, Amran, and al-Jawf governorates. President Saleh continues to press a military solution to the conflict, saying on August 19 that the ROYG was "determined to destroy" the Houthis. On August 20, Foreign Minister al-Qirbi convened a meeting with Ambassadors to present the ROYG's case that the Houthis are committing abuses against innocent civilians. Qirbi nuanced President Saleh's hard-line rhetoric from the day before, saying that the ROYG was battling the Houthis in order to convince them to return to the negotiating table. Lack of independent reporting from Sa'ada makes it difficult to verify claims that the Houthis are engaged in attacks against civilians, and Post will continue to rely on sources within relief agencies working in the area. Post awaits favorable consideration by the Department of its draft statement calling on the ROYG and the Houthis to stop the fighting, protect the civlian population, ensure the safety of IDPs, and return to the negotiating table. END SUMMARY. HOUTHIS ARE A "CANCER" ¶2. (U) President Saleh does not appear to be backing down from his hard-line stance against the Houthis. On August 19, at a military graduation ceremony at Central Forces Camp, President Saleh vowed to crush the Houthi rebellion, saying, "We're determined to destroy this group wherever they are and we mean what we say. We'll uproot this cancer that exists in Sa'ada. They pushed us to buy weapons instead of spending money on building schools." INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT INCREASING ¶3. (U) On August 19, the UN convened an international donor briefing on the humanitarian situation in Sa'ada. The UN and INGOs Forum Yemen reported that clashes have escalated in number and intensity in the past week, with daily air strikes and shelling in at least nine of 14 districts in Sa'ada. While it is difficult to estimate the number of IDPs, relief NGOs believe there are 35,000 in and around Sa'ada City, 15,000 in camps in northern Sa'ada governorate near the Saudi border, 8,500 in Hajja governorate, 28,000 in Amran governorate, and 4,000 in al-Jawf governorate. There continue to be problems assisting IDPs in Sa'ada governorate, as distribution remains on hold at the request of the authorities due to insecurity. Currently, the aid community's biggest challenge is not food supplies -- the World Food Program has enough food in the area to feed 100,000 IDPs for 6 weeks -- but determining which people entering the camps are fleeing the fighting in Sa'ada and which are simply poor people seeking food, water, and medical attention. MFA MEETING WITH AMBASSADORS ¶4. (SBU) At an August 20 meeting with Ambassadors to discuss the Sa'ada war, Foreign Minister al-Qirbi stated, "The situation in Sa'ada unfortunately has gone into its sixth war. It is really a war that was forced on the government. It is not a war of choice." Qirbi went on to describe how, after the July 2008 ceasefire, the government immediately began complying with the terms of the Doha Agreement, but that the Houthis took advantage of these terms to go back to the mountains and begin training for the next round of fighting. Because the Houthis "completely ignored" the Doha Agreement, and because of "public resentment that the government was silent about what the Houthis were doing" in communities they controlled, "in the end, the government had to intervene," launching the sixth round of the war. Qirbi also remarked upon how the ROYG was "surprised by" Iranian and Iraqi media reports that the Sa'ada conflict is a war against the Shi'a sect, describing it as "a clear indication that there is meddling in the internal affairs of Yemen" that "will not be conducive to any efforts to mediate." ¶5. (SBU) In a new development, the ROYG is now painting the Houthis as responsible for committing serious abuses against the civilian population. Qirbi distributed a document listing all of the violent acts committed by Houthis against civilians in areas they control. He told the Ambassadors that it was "worth looking at the enormous violence that Houthis have undertaken against civilians," saying they were responsible for assassinating local sheikhs, destroying homes of people who oppose their ideas, and destroying government SANAA 00001555 002 OF 002 buildings and schools. (Note: Post has not had an opportunity to review the document, which is in Arabic, nor is it clear that there will be any way to verify its claims. End Note.) EU DECRIES HUMANITARIAN IMPACT ¶6. (U) Also on August 20, the EU heads of missions in Sana'a issued a statement on the deterioration of the security and humanitarian situations in Sa'ada. In it, the EU "calls on both sides to stop the fighting immediately and to begin serious negotiations for a full and lasting peace settlement." The EU also urged both sides to allow civilians wishing to escape from the conflict to reach safety; to facilitate access for UN and NGO humanitarian workers; and to allow emergency medical and humanitarian relief to reach IDPs. The EU "remains ready to consider urgent humanitarian assistance to the victims of the conflict." ¶7. (SBU) Appearing to nuance President Saleh's more hard-line military rhetoric, Qirbi responded, "We are just as concerned as you are about civilians and the hardships inflicted upon them." He reiterated, "This is not a war of choice," but said that the situation in areas under Houthi control in Sa'ada had become so dire, that if the government had not taken action, suffering would continue to increase. He said it was not only a matter of solving the conflict militarily, but also politically. COMMENT ¶8. (C) Given the lack of access to journalists and relief workers, it is very difficult to determine if the Houthis are engaged in brutal attacks against civilians, schools, and clinics. For example, the ICRC Head of Sa'ada Sub-Delegation told the DCM on August 19 that it is "absolutely true" that a school and a clinic in Harf Sufyan (Amran governorate) have both been "flattened." What is not clear, however, is who did it and why. The "flattening" was so complete that it leads the ICRC to believe it was the result of aerial bombardment, which means the ROYG would be responsible. The ICRC does not know if the ROYG did it so that they could try to blame the Houthis, demonstrating that they are indeed attacking civilians and proving that we should therefore designate the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, or whether the ROYG did it because the Houthis had commandeered a government school (during the summer recess) and were using it as a base for their "Believing Youth" summer camp, a major provocation in the eyes of the ROYG. ICRC representatives commented that it would not make sense for the Houthis to attack civilians, since civilians have been sympathetic to their cause thus far. ¶9. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED. The ROYG is not likely to allow media to report on the situation in Sa'ada. Qirbi said that despite the security risks to journalists, the ROYG is considering allowing access, but a major sticking point is how to distinguish between "committed journalists and journalists with special agendas." Post will continue to rely on reports from sources in relief agencies working in the area, while pressing the ROYG to allow greater access to journalists, aid workers, and diplomats. Post awaits favorable consideration by the Department of its draft statement calling on the ROYG and the Houthis to stop the fighting, protect the civilian population, ensure the safety of IDPs, and return to the negotiating table. END COMMENT. SECHE