SOUTH BRACES FOR JULY 7 DEMONSTRATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 001217 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ARP:AMACDONALD BAGHDAD FOR LGURIAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2019 TAGS: PGOV YM SUBJECT: SOUTH BRACES FOR JULY 7 DEMONSTRATIONS Classified By: Ambassador Stephen A. Seche for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) July 7 marks the anniversary of the reunification of Yemen after the 1994 civil war. An Indonesian Diplomat who had just returned from Aden told POL/E Chief on July 6 that, based on what he saw, he feels the situation in the south on the seventh will be "very dangerous," with demonstrations in Aden, Lahj, Dhale and Mukalla. Reuters correspondent Mohamed Ghobari described Aden as very tense, with people voicing expectations of a confrontation between the ROYG and supporters of the Southern Movement. According to Ghobari, the Movement plans to hold a demonstration in the Sheikh Othman area of Aden. He added that the ROYG has blocked major roads in and around the city. (Note: This is the ROYG's most common strategy to prevent large-scale demonstrations by keeping people from coming into the city from outlying areas. End Note.) Ghobari said, however, that his contacts within the Movement are determined to hold their demonstration "whatever the cost." Sa'ud asserted that he believed the demonstrations would be larger than those the region has seen thus far. Business contacts urged an embassy security team in Aden to stay off the streets on July 7, the first time embassy employees can recall receiving such warnings. ¶2. (C) Meanwhile, The ROYG is planning large, pro-unity demonstrations in various southern cities, including Aden and Lahj. A preliminary demonstration was held on July 5. Government employees in Aden told EmbOffs that they had been informed that if they did not attend the rally they would forfeit a month's pay and be placed on a "black list" (NFI). Those who attended noted that the demonstration was quite short, limited by Aden's intense summer heat. Political observer and long-time embassy contact Abdulghani al-Eryani feared that the pro-unity demonstrations would be dangerously provocative. "The scary thing," he told POL/E Chief on July 6, "is that the government is holding counterdemonstrations (to the Southern Movement's demonstrations.) That is a recipe for trouble." On July 5, the opposition Joint Meeting Parties released a statement calling for the ROYG to cancel its planned July 7 demonstrations, calling them an irresponsible message that may lead to more violence. Post has no specific information on demonstrations (pro-unity or pro-Southern Movement) to be held in Sana'a on July 7. ¶3. (C) Comment. The ROYG's decision to hold pro-unity rallies in southern cities on a day many southerners consider to mark an ignominious defeat is ill-conceived at best. It will undoubtedly heighten tensions in an already tense time and possibly incite violence. End Comment. SECHE