SOUTH BRACES FOR JULY 7 DEMONSTRATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 001217

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ARP:AMACDONALD
BAGHDAD FOR LGURIAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2019
TAGS: PGOV YM
SUBJECT: SOUTH BRACES FOR JULY 7 DEMONSTRATIONS

Classified By: Ambassador Stephen A. Seche for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) July 7 marks the anniversary of the reunification of
Yemen after the 1994 civil war. An Indonesian Diplomat who
had just returned from Aden told POL/E Chief on July 6 that,
based on what he saw, he feels the situation in the south on
the seventh will be "very dangerous," with demonstrations in
Aden, Lahj, Dhale and Mukalla. Reuters correspondent Mohamed
Ghobari described Aden as very tense, with people voicing
expectations of a confrontation between the ROYG and
supporters of the Southern Movement. According to Ghobari,
the Movement plans to hold a demonstration in the Sheikh
Othman area of Aden. He added that the ROYG has blocked
major roads in and around the city. (Note: This is the
ROYG's most common strategy to prevent large-scale
demonstrations by keeping people from coming into the city
from outlying areas. End Note.) Ghobari said, however, that
his contacts within the Movement are determined to hold their
demonstration "whatever the cost." Sa'ud asserted that he
believed the demonstrations would be larger than those the
region has seen thus far. Business contacts urged an EMBASSY
security team in Aden to stay off the streets on July 7, the
first time EMBASSY employees can recall receiving such
warnings.


2. (C) Meanwhile, The ROYG is planning large, pro-unity
demonstrations in various southern cities, including Aden and
Lahj. A preliminary demonstration was held on July 5.
Government employees in Aden told EmbOffs that they had been
informed that if they did not attend the rally they would
forfeit a month's pay and be placed on a "black list" (NFI).
Those who attended noted that the demonstration was quite
short, limited by Aden's intense summer heat. Political
observer and long-time EMBASSY contact Abdulghani al-Eryani
feared that the pro-unity demonstrations would be dangerously
provocative. "The scary thing," he told POL/E Chief on July
6, "is that the government is holding counterdemonstrations
(to the Southern Movement's demonstrations.) That is a recipe
for trouble." On July 5, the opposition Joint Meeting
Parties released a statement calling for the ROYG to cancel
its planned July 7 demonstrations, calling them an
irresponsible message that may lead to more violence. Post
has no specific information on demonstrations (pro-unity or
pro-Southern Movement) to be held in Sana'a on July 7.


3. (C) Comment. The ROYG's decision to hold pro-unity
rallies in southern cities on a day many southerners consider
to mark an ignominious defeat is ill-conceived at best. It
will undoubtedly heighten tensions in an already tense time
and possibly incite violence. End Comment.
SECHE