IRAN: OPPOSITION LEADERS CALL SUPPORTERS OUT FOR ANNIVERSARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RPO DUBAI 000469 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/2/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL IR SUBJECT: IRAN: OPPOSITION LEADERS CALL SUPPORTERS OUT FOR ANNIVERSARY OF EMBASSY TAKEOVER REF: DUBAI RPO 386 DUBAI 00000469 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Alan Eyre, Director, Iran Regional Presence Office, DOS. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C)SUMMARY: Iran's opposition is poised to again co-opt one of the Islamic Republic's cherished rituals - the annual commemoration of the 1979 student takeover of the U.S. Embassy - to publicly protest the disputed presidential election and to undermine Ahmadinejad's 'coup' government. The November 4 demonstration is typically a government-orchestrated affair showcasing Iran's continued defiance of the West. However, as the IRIG has blocked other avenues of open protest, the 'Green Path' opposition has sought to co-opt government-authorized events to highlight its own popular support. As such hundreds of thousands of the opposition turned out for the September 18 'Qods Day' in defiance of IRIG security officials' repeated warnings. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY, CONT'D: A similar cascade of threats from security officials and calls from opposition leaders to participate now precedes November 4. However, indications of increased volatility, to include the return of Iran's students to university campuses and repeated protests therein, suggest increased chances for violent clashes. At a minimum, the November 4 demonstrations will again gauge the opposition's ability to rally its supporters into the streets, and the IRIG's willingness and ability to violently to suppress them. END SUMMARY. 'Anti-Arrogance' Day set to become Opposition Venue ¶3. (U) November 4, or the thirteenth day of the Iranian month 'Aban', is the anniversary of three important events in Iran's recent history. In 1964, the Shah of Iran exiled Ayatollah Khomeini to Turkey following Khomeini's criticism of a status of forces agreement with the US. In 1978, the Shah's forces killed several protesting University of Tehran students, and in 1979 students attacked and occupied the US Embassy in Tehran. The November 4 demonstrations primarily celebrate the 1979 hostage taking; last year an MP said the US Embassy takeover proved Iran's 'anti-arrogance' stand and highlighted Iran's will to remain independent. ¶4. (C) In recent years the revolutionary fervor of this day has substantially abated, with the government forced to resort to 'turn out the crowd' by marshalling government employees and others dependent on government largesse. However, this year, the IRIG's 'official' demonstrators this year will be joined, and possibly overwhelmed, by 'Green Path' opposition supporters. After the IRIG refused to grant the opposition permits to hold demonstrations and forcibly dispersed their gatherings, the 'Green Path' opposition began co-opting government-sanctioned events. The opposition used Qods Day on September 18 to bring out their supporters, challenging the security forces' to enforce their repeated warnings. Despite the presence of hundreds of thousands in the streets, the security forces on Qods Day generally acted as a buffer between pro-government vigilantes and opposition supporters, rather than violently suppressing the protesters (reftel). ¶5. (C) Opposition leaders and the government are now dueling for control of the November 4 demonstrations. In an October 28 video message Mehdi Karroubi said the 'Green Path' opposition was determined to participate in public gatherings and encouraged the public to join in as well, though he did not specifically mention the November 4 demonstrations. Reformist websites have indicated Karroubi will attend the demonstrations at a university campus. On October 31 Mir Hossein Mousavi released his 14th public statement, linking Khomeini's revolutionary movement to that of the 'Green Path,' and implicitly calling for his supporters to participate, arguing that the movement will be extinguished if the people keep quiet. ¶6. (C) Several senior security officials have warned against hijacking the day's official messages. The Law Enforcement Forces Commander on October 26 said all November 4 gatherings DUBAI 00000469 002.2 OF 002 must obtain a permit and the LEF Deputy Commander on November 1 said his forces would confront any illegal gatherings. (COMMENT: Security officials may be providing themselves with the legal cover to confront the opposition protests, which are unlikely to be granted permits. END COMMENT.) An IRGC-issued statement issued November 2 said that the "Iranian nation will not allow any group to impose itself and use diversionary and false slogans on 13 Aban." Separately, the Supreme Leader has remained firm in his insistence of the presidential election's integrity; on October 28 Khamenei said questioning the election was a major crime. Protests, Unrest Provide Backdrop ¶7. (C) Thirteen Aban will occur amid a still simmering and sometimes volatile political environment. Universities throughout Iran have witnessed many protests since classes began in late September. Protests have flared at universities known for their political activism, such as Tehran University, as well as in typically quiescent universities, such as Sharif University of Technology and Islamic Azad University. Adding to the mix, the IRIG is now meting out sentences to the political detainees; their family members protested on October 28 in front of the Tehran Public Prosecutor's office and November 2 in front of the Majlis. And in an indication of the tension, the typically staid, annual Tehran media fair devolved into a contest between pro- and anti-government forces. ¶8. (C) COMMENT: The competing calls from opposition leaders encouraging participation and threats from IRIG officials ahead of November 4 parallel the build-up to Qods Day. It is possible and perhaps probable that November 4 will unfold similarly as well, with large numbers of the opposition in the streets but without confrontation with security forces. The opposition feels it needs to draw its supporters into the street as a show of strength. And the IRIG's violent repression of the protesters would engender further animosity toward the government at a time when the regime is seeking to project an 'everything is normal' image. Other indicators, however, suggest that the situation in Iran is now more volatile than it was ahead of Qods Day. Students were not on campus then but they have repeatedly protested since classes began. And what were once routine, generic events, such as the media fair in Tehran, have become forums pitting pro- and anti-government supporters against each other. In the end, November 4 will again gauge the opposition's ability to mobilize its own numbers, and the IRIG's willingness and ability to violently to suppress them if need be. END COMMENT. EYRE