IRAN TURNS THE SCREW TIGHTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RPO DUBAI 000375 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/9/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL IR SUBJECT: IRAN TURNS THE SCREW TIGHTER DUBAI 00000375 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Alan Eyre, Director, Iran Regional Presence Office, DOS. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: With a series of raids and arrests on September 7 and 8, the government moved aggressively to stop efforts by the Iran 'Green Path' opposition and human rights advocates to document and publicize allegations of detainee abuse and extrajudicial killings by the security forces in the wake of the June 12 election. This move follows the Iranian opposition's dissemination of the identities of 72 people purportedly killed by the authorities in the post-election crackdown, far higher than the number officially acknowledged, as well as detailed allegations of detainee sexual abuse submitted to the Majlis and the Judiciary by Mehdi Karrubi. By order of the newly-appointed Tehran Public and Revolutionary Prosecutor, authorities closed the "Committee for Following the Situation of Detainees, " the organization set up by presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karrubi to advocate on behalf of victims of the government's post-election crackdown. A second organization, the "Association to Defend Prisoners Rights," is a prominent human rights organization whose members have been targeted by the authorities since its 2004 founding. Security officials also arrested senior aides affiliated with both Mousavi and Karrubi, as well as the editor of Karrubi's main website. These incidents confirm the government's preference for coercion over compromise, and its continuing if not increased pressure on the leadership of the "Green Path" opposition to stand down and fall in line. Iran press recently announced that Supreme Leader Khamenei will be giving this Friday's Tehran Prayer sermon, and all players will be keenly awaiting his public comments to detect any change in regime attitudes or tactics. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) According to Iranian press and oppositionist accounts, over the course of September 7-8, the government took the following steps to stop oppositionist activities: - On Monday, September 7, security officials went to the office of the "Committee for Following the Situation of Detainees," (CFSD) an organization set up by Karrubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi after the post-June 12 crackdown, took away documents, records and a computer, then closed and sealed the office; 
 - On Monday, September 7, security officials raided the office of "Association to Defend Prisoners Rights," an NGO founded in 2004 by prominent human rights dissident Emaddedin Baghi, took away records, documents, and computers, then closed and sealed the office; - On Tuesday, September 8 at approximately 1530 hours, officials from Tehran Prosecutor's Office appeared at defeated Presidential candidate Mehdi Karrubi's Tehran office, interrogated employees, confiscated documents, records, CDs, films, papers and office supplies, escorted all personnel out (to include Karrubi himself),then locked and sealed the office; - At approximately the same time, another group of Tehran Prosecutor's Office officials entered Karrubi's "National Trust" (Etemad-e Melli) political party office in another part of Tehran, interrogated employees and party members present, confiscated documents, records, CDs, films, papers and office supplies, escorted all personnel out, then locked and sealed the office; - Shortly after the two simultaneous September 8 incidents cited directly above, security officials armed with an order from Tehran's new Prosecutor General arrested prominent reformer and close Mousavi aide Dr. Ali Reza Beheshti, the CFSD spokesman and son of the late Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti, Iran's first Judiciary head and one of the seminal figures in the 1979 Islamic Revolution; - On September 8 officials arrested Mohamad Davari, the editor of "Saham News," Etemad-e Melli's website; DUBAI 00000375 002.2 OF 002 - On September 8 officials searched the house of and then arrested former Tehran Mayor and prominent reformist politician Morteza Alviri, who was serving both as advisor to Karrubi and as his representative on the "Committee for Following the Situation of Detainees." ¶3. (U) The September 7 raid on the Committee for Following the Situation of Detainees followed the group's publication of the identities (and circumstances surrounding the deaths) of 72 persons it says were killed by security forces for protesting the election results - a number far higher than officially acknowledged. The September 8 raid on Karrubi's office and that of his political party follows his compiling information about detainee abuse and trying to assist victims and their families. Based on this work, Karrubi made a series of highly-publicized allegations against the security forces that roiled the establishment, including accusations of sexual abuse, severe beatings, and killings. Why Now and What Next? ¶4. (C) COMMENT: Many analysts and "Green Path" oppositionists have stated that the government's primary motive in these actions was to stop the ongoing incendiary revelations about prisoner abuse. Beyond this goal, one IRPO contact, a prominent Western-based oppositionist with extensive ties among the "Green Path" opposition, despaired that this latest series of office closings and arrests, along with recent statements by the IRGC Commander Jaafari, is laying the stage for the arrest of Mousavi and Karrubi themselves. Another IRPO contact, a Dubai-based political analyst, said that this move by the regime is in a sense the "least that it could do," as it could not countenance a continuation of the opposition's (and especially Karrubi's) incendiary activities but did not want (yet) to arrest the principals themselves. Regardless, this incident confirms Iran's preference for coercion over compromise, and its continuing if not increased pressure on the leadership of the "Green Path" opposition to stand down and fall in line. Iranian press recently announced that Supreme Leader Khamenei will be giving this Friday's Tehran Prayer sermon, and all players will be keenly awaiting his public comments to detect any change in regime attitudes or tactics. On a lesser note, the latest wave of crackdowns gives lie to the hope that the new Judiciary Chief Sadeq Larijani and the new Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jaafari Dolatabadi would adhere to "kinder, gentler" polices than their predecessors. END COMMENT. EYRE