S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 RPO DUBAI 000280

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/8/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON IR
SUBJECT: IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE DUBAI: WINDOW ON IRAN - JULY
8, 2009

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CLASSIFIED BY: Timothy Richardson, Acting Director, Iran
Regional Presence Office, DOS.
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d)

1. (S/NF) Continuing Anger at Government, Growing Impatience
with Mousavi: IRPO contacts recently returned from Iran to
Dubai describe widespread frustration among the general populace
and noted a sharp escalation in the anti-government rhetoric
during casual conversations. The visible security presence on
the streets of Tehran is significantly diminished, according to
two businessmen who split their time between Dubai and Tehran.
Whereas squads of uniformed security forces effectively occupied
major squares and heavily patrolled key thoroughfares last week,
this week their visibility has been scaled back. The
businessmen said security has "gone mobile" in the form of
two-person teams on motorbikes. From their office near Enghelab
Square on Sunday they observed a team pass by about every ten
minutes. Though the nightly calls of Allahu Akbar continue, no
effective alternative to the now-suppressed street
demonstrations has surfaced. These contacts say that many of
their employees and associates, most of whom participated in the
demonstrations, are growing disenchanted with the key opposition
figures - Mousavi, Karrubi, and Khatami - for their failure to
"do something," and some are openly saying that since
nonviolence has failed, a revolution is required. The two
contacts felt that the Iftikar protest on Thursday would not
gain much traction, both because the government was prepared for
unrest and because of a lack of organizational leadership.




2. (S/NF) Nourizadeh on the Election's Aftermath: UK-based
broadcaster and commentator Alireza Nourizadeh told us July 5
that he remains in contact with Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi
Karroubi, and that their efforts to protest the election had
entered a new phase. Nourizadeh, in Dubai for meetings with
various sources, said more protests were being planned for July
9, around the anniversary of the student uprisings in 1999, but
that the opposition would generally forego confronta

tions with
security forces in favor of acts of civil disobedience. Mousavi,
he assured us, was prepared for a long struggle and ready to put
himself at risk. He noted, however, that for the immediate
future, Mousavi would not venture out but that Karroubi would
travel to cities outside Tehran. Nourizadeh said opposition
leaders and supporters are using various means of communication,
including phone and e-mail trees, to circumvent restrictions on
SMS services and the internet. Nourizadeh also told us that
five satellite phones had recently been smuggled into Iran.
Mousavi, Karroubi, and former President Khatami each had one and
more were being procured. As an aside, he noted radio
broadcasting would remain the most effective way to reach the
largest portion of the Iranian public and lamented the lack of
medium-wave radio broadcasts into Iran by VOA and other foreign
broadcasters. Among his other points:



- Rafsanjani had secured 41 signatures from members of the
Assembly of Experts but had realized he did not have sufficient
support in the assembly to take action against the Supreme
Leader. He had turned his attention to other avenues to support
the opposition. Rafsanjani also recognized that the regime could
pressure him by acting against his children and was proceeding
cautiously.



- Mojtaba Khamenei was the force behind the crackdown and was
adamant there could be no compromise. Others in the Supreme
Leader's circle had wanted some accommodation with Mousavi and
even proposed cabinet positions in the current administration
for his supporters or offering Mousavi the presidency in 2013.
Nourizadeh said their proposal had even been presented to
Mousavi, who refused.



- Nourizadeh also told us that there were "prominent people" in
Iran who may flee the country and approach US Embassies about
refugee status in the US. He promised to update us with
specific information if some of them decided to depart Iran.




3. (S/NF) Comment: Nourizadeh, an Iranian nationalist opposed to
the regime who often notes his sensational reporting has led to
regime-backed threats to his security, was insistent that the
opposition was going to continue to press its case and the calm
of the past few days had been a lull while it shifted tactics.

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In response to the mention of potential refugee cases, we
briefly outlined the US refugee resettlement program and
emphasized that the process can be a lengthy one, further
complicated by conditions in the host country.




4. (S) Northern Tehranis Claim Rafsanjani Vulnerable in a New
Revolution: An IRPO contact with whom we meet when he is in
Dubai and his brother claimed that the Iranian public did not
differentiate between Rafsanjani and the rest of the elite in
its disdain for the current regime. If another revolution were
to occur, our contact said, Rafsanjani would be killed along
with the rest of the IRIG leadership. Our contact repeated this
assertion several times, despite noting that they were eagerly
watching Rafsanjani's role in the elite wrangling. The brothers
were of two minds regarding the future of the government; one
believes the people are afraid and will not be able to affect
change while the other thought change was still possible. They
agreed, however, that the protests are about gaining more
freedom and not Mousavi. Comment: Their insistence that
Rafsanjani faces a grim fate were another revolution to occur
highlights the delicacy of Rafsanjani's position. Rafsanjani
seems threatened both by other elements of the regime as well as
by a popular revolt, giving him little maneuverability. This
IRPO contact is generally apolitical and his views probably
reflect the northern Tehran elite rather than those of
politically-minded intellectuals.




5. (C) Ahmadinejad Promises "Active Role" on the World Stage:
President Ahmadinejad, who has maintained an unusually low
profile since the disputed June 12 election, gave a
thirty-minute address on state television last night in which he
deemed the election the freest in the world and the healthiest
in the Islamic Republic's 30-year history. In a nod to
widespread discontent, he promised to tackle economic issues
first and reduce social restrictions on youths. In a lengthy
discourse on Iran's role in the world, AN refuted criticisms
from his election rivals that Iran had suffered due to his
mismanagement of Iran's foreign policy. Iran can not progress
domestically, he argued, without a dynamic foreign policy
because the Arrogant Powers of the world "do not want Iran to
succeed." Comment: At times, AN's remarks were unusually
conciliatory. In contrast to his press conference after the
election, he did not disparage his rivals in the election or
their supporters. His admission that the economy needed urgent
attention is also notable, given his past bravado regarding the
"successes" of his economic agenda. However, AN's accusation of
foreign interference in the election and his argument for Iran's
continuing "active role" in the world illustrate that while he
may be softening his approach to his domestic audience, his
outward belligerence will likely continue.




6. (S) Esfahan Bazaari Says Bazaar's Influence Waning: An
Iranian carpet merchant who has been selling carpets for 50
years said the bazaar is no longer as cohesive a community as it
used to be and blamed the government for the change. There is
little connection between different bazaars, such as those in
Tabriz, Tehran and Esfahan, and the connections among merchants
within the bazaars are weaker too. He said the government gives
preferential loans to favored merchants. The bazaari and his
wife differed on the degree of support within the Esfahan bazaar
for Ahmadinejad and Mousavi-she thought Mousavi had a great deal
of support while he thought Ahmadinejad had strong support-but
agreed that the bazaars had closed for only a few days in
protest and that not all of the shops had closed. The couple
made other points about life in Esfahan:



- The Iftikaf holiday is no longer widely supported; they said
that in the past only Basijis and Sepahis observe the holiday.
The couple then criticized the government for driving people
away from religion.



- Approximately 70 to 80 percent of Esfahanis have satellite
dishes and he bragged that he has three. Security forces had
collected a few dishes in Esfahan but not many; the security
forces were only collecting dishes from apartment buildings and

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not from private homes. Another IRPO contact in the past said
the security forces also ignore satellite dishes in private
homes.




7. (S) Comment: The couple was openly critical of the government
throughout our conversation but without justifying or explaining
their criticism. He did say that his business had been much
better before the revolution and as a result seems to harbor a
grievance against the current government. Although openly
supportive of Mousavi, he did not seem to be tracking the
political crisis very closely and did not give the impression
that the bazaar was ready to stand up on behalf on Mousavi.




8. (C) Iran Still Open for Tourists: We spoke to a Dubai-based
American who went to Iran as a tourist from June 18 through July

3. Our contact, a professor at a local university, told us he
had seen the margins of some of the demonstrations in Tehran,
getting a whiff of tear gas in the process and his companion
being sternly warned about taking pictures of the Basij in the
streets. Otherwise, they had no problems. Their travel between
Tehran and several other cities were not restricted, nor was
their tour guide reticent in complaining about the election
outcome and crackdown. Iranians he met along the way told him
consistently, but only in private, the election was a farce and
the heavy handed way it had been given to Ahmadinejad was an
insult to the people's intelligence.
RICHARDSON