IRAN'S REFORMISTS BRAND ALLEGED ELECTION FRAUD AS TREASON,

S E C R E T RPO DUBAI 000247 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/13/2034 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PROP PINS IR SUBJECT: IRAN'S REFORMISTS BRAND ALLEGED ELECTION FRAUD AS TREASON, VOW TO FIGHT ON REF: WOI 06/11/2009 CLASSIFIED BY: Ramin Asgard, Director, Iran Regional Presence Office - Dubai, DOS. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (S/NF) In reftel, we suggested the two most likely outcomes for the Iranian election were a Moussavi win in the first round, or a massively fraudulent Ahmadinejad win in the first round. (Winning in the first round requites winning more than 50 percent of the nationwide vote.) It appears both took place. Moussavi in a press conference on 06/13 claimed Interior Ministry told him and his campaign Friday night that he had won. It then appears that massive political intervention led to a huge (60 percent plus) AN landslide being announced on state TV early on Saturday. ¶2. (S/NF) Based upon statements by Moussavi and Karroubi, comments from sources inside Iran, and press reports, we can expect some form of public rejection by their campaigns and their supporters of the reelection of President Ahmadinejad. Former IRGC Commander Mohsen Rezai has not yet spoken on the results. In his statements Moussavi called the result "treason" and vowed to fight. Karroubi issued a statement at 1500 Tehran time on 06/13 calling the process unconstitutional and stating that he would not remain quiet as he did in 2005. ¶3. (S/NF) Official results of AN's victory with 63 percent of the vote were announced at 1630 Tehran time Saturday. Even before the results were public, large protests have reportedly broken out in Tehran as of 1530. We anticipate these will continue, possibly leading to skirmishes between Moussavi supporters and AN forces this evening. Reports indicate a heavy security presence in the Tehran streets, so the situation could escalate quickly. ¶4. (S/NF) Comment: We surmise that the Supreme Leader's control over the security services and national media will act to inhibit the flow of reliable information coming out of Iran in the coming days. As reported earlier, however, over 200 foreign media were in Iran to cover the election, so they may serve as an eyewitness to developments. The outcome of this contested election could be as limited as a large segment of the population feeling intensely alienated and angry. This is nothing new for the IRIG, and their monopoly of force and some well-timed repression can likely quell most dissent - although it would be particularly bad PR to do this while so many foreign media are present. ¶5. (S/NF) Comment, Cont'd.: It is possible, however, that given the number of senior political figures this campaign and this election result have profoundly angered, and the scope of popular resentment over the results; a large-scale political crisis could develop. Our position should remain wait-and-see for the time being, particularly as several key figures have yet to speak publicly on events. That said, if the opposition does start to organize on a large scale, or if clashes turn violent, we will need to quickly determine an appropriate public position. Many opposition supporters will likely look to the US - particularly after the Cairo speech - for inspiration. ASGARD