IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE DUBAI: WINDOW ON IRAN - MAY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 RPO DUBAI 000218 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/20/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON SUBJECT: IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE DUBAI: WINDOW ON IRAN - MAY 20, 2009 DUBAI 00000218 001.2 OF 003 CLASSIFIED BY: Ramin Asgard, Director, Iran Regional Presence Office, DOS. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (SBU) Candidate Snapshot of the Iranian Presidential Election: The Ministry of Interior today announced the Guardians Council-approved final candidate list. As expected, the four leading candidates - Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mir Hosein Mousavi, Mehdi Karrubi, and Mohsen Reza'i - are the only sanctioned contenders for the June 12 election. An election scenesetter is being sent septel. ¶2. (S/NF) Saberi, the US and AN's Election Prospects: An IRPO contact with direct access to IRIG officials told us May 16 that President Ahmadinejad had been directly responsible for the release of Roxanna Saberi. Our source then implied a linkage between Saberi's release and hoped-for U.S. "actions" toward engagement with Iran before the election that might boost Ahmadinejad's re-election. Ahmadinejad, he argued, was committed to engaging the United States, and the best candidate for the success of any rapprochement and for Iran in general. Our contact acknowledged that his re-election prospects, however, were at best 50-50, and likely worse. Leaving aside the presidential election, our contact said that Supreme Leader Khamenei and his advisers are moving toward a policy of engagement. He maintained that Khamenei, during his tour of Kordestan, had demonstrably toned down direct criticism of the United States and that it was indicative of the change in Supreme Leader's thinking. Comment: Our contact did not dwell on Saberi and AN's election and only raised it in passing. We doubt he raised it at the behest of the AN campaign, but it is possibly further evidence that Ahmadinejad is hoping for a breakthrough with the US to improve his chances for re-election. ¶3. (S/NF) Iran's Third GSM License May Be Retendered: According to an IRPO business contact with regular access to senior Iranian commercial circles, the recent withdrawal of the UAE's telecomm giant Etisalat (additional reporting septel),and substitution with Kuwait's Zain, as recipients of Iran's third GSM license may be a harbinger of even greater shakeups to come. This source noted that the chair of the Iran Arab Cooperation Board [NFN Husaini] traveled to Oman this past week to explore whether OmanTel, Oman's telecomm carrier, had sufficient interest in the GSM license to warrant possible retendering. Further, he passed along that the Iranians are willing to consider bringing in a US telecomm firm as Omantel's partner. Comment: As with many such tenders in this region, this huge contract has become heavily politicized. With billions at stake, Iran appears to be shopping this lucrative license among various regional players and weighing various foreign policy benefits in the process. The suggested addition of a US carrier, if this can be verified, may bring the politicization of this deal to a qualitatively higher level. ¶4. (S/NF) Evidence of Supreme Leader-Mousavi Reconciliation?: An IRPO business contact with connections to the Mousavi campaign recounted to IRPO Officers a recent Supreme Leader visit to Mir Hossein Mousavi's home, a story that has also circulated on the internet. Mousavi's elderly father was gravely ill, and the SL reportedly spent two hours alone with Mousavi on the occasion. Contact pointed out that this visit is being considered as a show of great respect to Mousavi, and that we should not presume that the reported twenty-year old feud between the SL and Mousavi still embittered their relationship. ¶5. (S/NF) State Media Outlets Seek Help in Establishing U.S. Presence: An Iranian journalist working for a Western news service told us that he recently was approached by Iranian officials seeking help in getting accreditation for IRIB and Fars News Agency to place reporters in the U.S. The IRIG official told our contact that a request had been denied by the Department. Our contact said that he suspected the timing of the Iranian request was tied to accreditation of Western journalists covering the Iranian election. Comment: We have heard no complaints from any Western press contacts here that visas or accreditation requests have been denied. IRNA reported about 190 foreign correspondents have applied to cover the presidential elections in Iran. DUBAI 00000218 002.2 OF 003 ¶6. (S/NF) Iranian Film Director on the Iranian Film Scene: A renowned Iranian film director told us that the Ministry of Culture is Iran is "anti-culture" and was one more frustration that Iranians had to contend with under Ahmadinejad. He said the Ministry will give film makers permission to begin shooting a film but often will deny permission to show it in Iran. This arbitrary treatment has left many directors of films deemed too sensitive for Iranians with no outlet other than foreign film festivals. The director said Iranian film makers and actors are publicly critical of the IRIG at these festivals, and he was unaware of any being punished for it when they return. Iranian officials have become increasingly accepting of satellite broadcasts and even show American movies on IRIB, he said, in large part because they recognize that movies and television shows produced for propaganda have little influence among the Iranian public. Comment: Our contact was highly critical of Ahmadinejad and told us he was working with Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign, but he also had little expectation that a Mousavi victory would bring about real change as long as the Supreme Leader was in place. ¶7. (C) Women's Professional Soccer Broadcast into Iran: The Los Angeles-based satellite channel Iran TV (also known as ITN) began broadcasting women's professional soccer matches into Iran three weeks ago. The games, which are played between teams belonging to the newly-created Women's Professional Soccer (WPS) league, are aired weekly on Wednesday evenings during prime television hours. According to the producer, the broadcasts have drawn a tremendous response from viewers inside Iran, who are especially appreciative of the fact that the commentators, a man and women, are native Farsi speakers. The producer said that during the fifteen-minutes live call-in period following each match, viewers from Iran (and a few from Afghanistan) have "inundated" the channel's phone lines with overwhelmingly positive comments from both men and women. The broadcasts will continue through the end of the season in late August. Comment: Soccer is wildly popular in Iran and became a hot button gender issue in 2006 when Ahmadinejad attempted to relax the prohibition against women attending matches, only to be reversed by the Supreme Leader, who sided with clerics concerned about the affect viewing men in shorts could have on women's morality. ¶8. (S/NF) Farsi One TV Set to Debut in Late June: In discussions with Farsi TV executives (joint venture which includes StarTV, a NewsCorp subsidiary),IRPO learned that this entertainment channel featuring American programming dubbed in Fars) in late June. Comment: Given the availability of Fox television programming, IRPO is urging Farsi One to reconsider its decision not to run the Simpsons. ¶9. (S/NF) Tehran Stock Exchange Striving to Meet International Standards: The Iranian manager of a medium-sized private equity fund that invests in the Tehran Stock Exchange described significant improvements in the quality of the bourse's management in the three years since his fund was established. He observed that the TSE was the only positively performing bourse in the world in 2008 and is much more dynamic exchange that commonly understood outside of Iran. He said that government-affiliated funds, such as the national pension fund, make up sixty percent of the market. While the TSE remains badly over-regulated and at $50 billion is still very small, in his opinion the situation has improved dramatically in recent years. While still not meeting international operating standards, it is making progress: he said the TSE is now "legitimately" private, and that in an effort to improve transparency (and thus attract increased investment),companies listed on the bourse compelled to publish quarterly reports substantiated by accounting firm that have been pre-approved by TSE management. The fund manager noted that the regulation compelling investors to keep their money inside Iran for a minimum of three years remains a major obstacle to attracting foreign investment, and that the two percent foreign ownership figure officially cited by the TSE is likely untrue. Bureaucracy and over-regulation still hamper the TSE, but he said he has not encountered any overt corruption there. When asked about the profitability of investing in the TSE, he answered with a broad smile and predicted it would only improve because the fundamentals of the Iranian economy, in particular the famous youth bulge, will not change. He described the banking sector as the easiest place to make money right now in DUBAI 00000218 003.2 OF 003 Iran. ASGARD