IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE -- WINDOW ON IRAN -- APRIL 7,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 RPO DUBAI 000162 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/7/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PREF ECON EAGR IR SUBJECT: IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE -- WINDOW ON IRAN -- APRIL 7, 2009 DUBAI 00000162 001.2 OF 003 CLASSIFIED BY: Timothy Richardson, ActingDirector, Iran Regional Presence Office, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (S/NF) Update on Roxana Saberi: Two separate IRPO contacts have asserted that Roxanna Saberi is part of a political struggle over IRIG relations with the US. One of them, a friend of Saberi who works for BBC Farsi, said that Saberi was taken by elements in the Ministry of Intelligence and Security who want to prevent rapprochement between Iran and America. She told us that elements in the Ministry of Justice were working for Saberi's release. Our other contact, who has indirect access to senior IRIG officials, partially corroborated that information. He described Saberi as a "political pawn," and confirmed that the Ministry of Justice has sought her release. He added, however, that even if she is released from Evin Prison soon, she would not yet be allowed to leave Iran. Iranian sources told our contact that part of the obstacle for her release was that she had been uncooperative and defiant during interrogations, and interrogators were refusing to sign off on her release. He urged us to try to pass a message to Saberi to remain calm and appear cooperative. Our contacts' sources also suggested that the USG maintain a very low profile in this case, in his words, "go lights out," to give sympathetic forces in Iran time to resolve it quietly. Comment: The comments from these two sources further support our view, voiced in the March 31 WOI, that there are spoilers actively working to obstruct any improvement in US-Iran ties. The broader issue of how the IRIG should respond to any US overture remains highly contentious within Iran, so much so that those who are supportive of engagement are reluctant to raise their profile and be seen as too sympathetic to the US. ¶2. (S/NF) Qalibaf to Become the Compromise Candidate? According to an IRPO contact with sources in Iran, Supreme Leader Khamenei has assented to Tehran Mayor Mohammad Qalibaf entering the presidential race as a compromise candidate. Our contact's sources claimed that Qalibaf would receive support from reformist candidate and former Majles Speaker Mehdi Karroubi, who would drop out in favor of Qalibaf. There have also been apparent contacts between Qalibaf and Mir Hussein Mousavi over a Qalibaf candidacy, but Mousavi has not indicated whether he would abandon his campaign or not. Qalibaf is also said to be gathering supporters within the IRCG and other security ministries in preparation for announcing his bid. Our contact emphasized that Qalibaf would be a serious candidate who wants to establish a relationship with the US, as is indicated by the Tehran Municipality's interest in buying American agricultural products for distribution before the election. Comment: All of the speculation that has been building on the emergence of a compromise candidate, be it Qalibaf or someone else, may end on April 14, when former IRGC Commander Mohsen Rezai has said that the so-called "national unity" candidate will be announced. In the interim, rumors and contradictory information about the intentions of potential candidates and the preferences of the Supreme Leader will no doubt dominate conversation in Iranian political circles. For example, although just this week Qalibaf himself stated publicly that he was not planning to run in this election, speculation that he would present a formidable challenge to Ahmadinejad continues. ¶3. (S/NF) Iran Supreme Court Member Says Sadeq Larijani to be Next Judiciary Chief: Supreme Court member Reza Hatami Marbini confidently predicted Ayatollah Sadeq Larijani will be the next Judiciary Chief after Ayatollah Hashemi-Shahrudi's term ends this summer. Marbini, in Dubai to apply for a visa, said Larijani has already begun attending conferences to learn how the judiciary works. Ayatollah Larijani, a member of the Guardians Council and Majles speaker Ali Larijani's brother, has been rumored to be under consideration for the post. In January, a leading advocate to end juvenile executions in Iran deemed Ayatollah Larijani's appointment likely. She complained to IRPO that she was uncomfortable with Larijani's possible appointment because his legal views are unknown. Whereas she considers Shahrudi a good man but ineffective, she termed Ayatollah Larijani "very political." ¶4. (C/NF) UNHCR Worker Predicts Hard(er) Times Ahead for Afghans in Iran: An Iranian employee of the UNHCR in Tehran told IRPO that he expects Afghans in Iran to come under DUBAI 00000162 002.2 OF 003 increasing pressure in coming months as the effects of the slowdown in construction in major cities becomes more pronounced. He explained that the construction boom of recent years had been the primary source of employment for Afghans in Iran, and that construction companies overwhelmingly prefer to hire Afghans, who are regarded as hard workers and are not covered by Iran's rigorous labor protection laws. The UNHCR protection officer predicted that the IRIG will be hard pressed to deal with the looming crisis as increasing numbers of illegal economic migrants enter from Afghanistan at the same time as their employment opportunities are dwindling. He also observed that many in the IRIG believe their support for Afghan refugees over the years has been underappreciated by the international community, but cautioned that any goodwill gestures to help Iran's capacity to deal with the refugee and migrant community should be channeled "indirectly" to Iran through the UN. Otherwise, the initiative is likely to be met with "suspicion" by the IRIG. He also noted that long-term policy pertaining to refugees and illegal migrants is set by the Supreme National Security Council, although implementation typically falls to the Ministry of Interior and the Ministry of Labor. Comment: These observations track what we've been hearing from other sources about a significant rise in the number of Afghans attempting to find work in Iran or be trafficked through Iran to destinations in Turkey and continental Europe. ¶5. (C/NF) BBC Farsi Finding a Receptive Audience: Market researchers from BBC's Persian TV in Dubai told us that they are pleased with the initial positive reactions to the channel. Focus groups and other research among Iranians visiting Dubai during the Nowruz holiday indicated that the channel is attracting a large viewership that appreciates its objective reporting and transparency. Viewers also related well to the use of Farsi speaking reporters recently brought to London from Iran. Their research also indicated that the channel was drawing many younger viewers and that a significant portion of them were watching via the Internet. ¶6. (C/NF) One of the researchers, who had been tracking reaction to the President's Nowruz message by BBC Persian viewers, said BBC's audience's response was unprecedented in the television channel's short history and dominated the Iranian blogosphere for days. Audience reaction was so immediate and supportive that the atmosphere in the newsroom had been electric, she said. Comment: Our BBC interlocutors were obviously pleased and noted that the detail focus groups provided in commenting on the channel indicated they were attentively watching in Iran. BBC will share the research with IW watcher in London and VOA. ¶7. (C/NF) Filmmakers on Mohammad Ehsani's Arrest; Reflections on IVLPs: Two IRPO contacts acquainted with documentary filmmaker Mohammad Ehsani confirmed that he has been jailed since July. One of our sources, who participated in the IVLP program with Ehsani, said that the group had come under MOIS scrutiny before it left Iran last year. They were "advised" not to travel to the US but not prevented from leaving. When they returned, many were interrogated, and our contact, who helped organize the program, was banned from leaving Iran for six months. The group was unsure what had happened to Ehsani, and several months passed without contact from him following their return. It was only recently that they received the news that he had been arrested and placed in Evin prison. They said Ehsani had spoken publicly of his work with the Asia Society in making a film an even claimed he intended to make a film financed with USG funds, which is likely what led to his arrest. Our filmmaker contacts were supportive of further cooperation among Iranian and American filmmakers, as have our other film industry contacts. They cautioned however, that USG-sponsored exchanges and partner organizations, especially the Meridian International Center, were under heavy scrutiny. They suggested working indirectly with universities and other organizations with no direct ties to the USG, as well as keeping groups to four members or less so as to attract less MOIS attention. Comment: From this and other conversations, we are seeing certain similarities in the cases of IVLP's who attract MOIS attention. Being seen as an organizer working closely with the USG, or claiming to get USG DUBAI 00000162 003.2 OF 003 funding, and affiliations with NGOs perceived as having close ties to the Bush Administration appear to be common characteristics in the cases of the Alaeis, Ehsani, and Silva Hartounian. ¶8. (SBU) Iranian Appellate Court Upholds Alaei Brothers' Conviction: BBC Persian reported April 7 that an appellate court has affirmed the six and three year sentences given to Arash and Kamyar Alaei, respectively. According to their defense attorney, the court's decision was rendered within one day of receiving their case files and had come two days before the beginning of the Nowruz holiday. ¶9. (C/NF) Iranian Sociologist Comments on Development Challenges and Ethnic Relations: Chief Editor of the Iranian Journal of Sociology, Farhang Ershad, met recently with IRPO Conoff and said that he considers Iran's still prominent clan and kinship networks a significant obstacle to the country's development. He complained that appointed Iranian officials will staff their offices from those among their kinship networks, to the detriment of the country. Separately, he commented on the linkages between Persians and Iran's various ethnic groups. He said that although intermarriage between Arabs and Persians in Khuzestan is normal, Iran's Arab population is generally the farthest removed from the Persian mainstream. Ershad, a professor at Shahid Chamran University in Khuzestan, said fewer Arabs live in Tehran because they speak Arabic and have difficulty communicating in Farsi. When questioned about the Baloch, he agreed that their integration is also quite weak but admitted that he did know as much about the Baloch. Perisan-Kurd and Persian-Azeri ties are better, particularly in Tehran, though he said the mountains separating the Kurdish and Azeri regions from the rest of the country leave the two groups somewhat isolated. Ershad also explained with some amusement that Persians enjoy telling jokes at the minorities' expense and said Lurs in particular are singled out. Comment: Persians account for roughly 50% of the Iranian population and the minority populations, though generally quiescent, are likely less amused with what they consider Persian chauvinism and the jokes at their expense. Iranian Azeris protested for several days in May 2006 following the publication of an offensive cartoon in a state-owned newspaper. RICHARDSON