DAS SPIRNAK'S MEETING WITH ITALIAN VICE DIRECTOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 000889

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL IS IT IR
SUBJECT: DAS SPIRNAK'S MEETING WITH ITALIAN VICE DIRECTOR
GENERAL FOR MIDDLE EAST AFFAIRS, LUIGI MARRAS

REF: ROME 852

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires EDIBBLE, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (U) On the margins of a July 24 discussion on the Broader
Middle East Initiative, NEA Acting DAS Madelyn Spirnak spoke
with Italian MFA Vice Director General Luigi Marras about the
situation in Iran, Lebanon and Syria.

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Iran
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2. (C) Spirnak complimented Marras for Italy's handling of
the situation regarding Iranian participation at the G8
Ministerial in Trieste. (Note: having invited the Iranian
Foreign Minister to participate in the G8 Outreach Meeting on
Afghanistan and Pakistan, and having received no reply, the
Italians closed the window on responses in the aftermath of
Iranian election chaos, only to have the Iranians express
interest in attending. Through the Iranian Ambassador in
Rome, the Italians then privately indicated that the time was
not right for such participation, thus quietly avoiding a
diplomatic incident.) She asked Marras, who served in Tehran
earlier in his career, for his analysis of the situation
there.


3. (C) Marras began by noting that no one knows what will
happen. "We do know basic things," he said, such as that
Khameini and Ahmadinejad are weakened and that their
political destinies might not be linked. He said that it was
his understanding that the various military forces in Iran
are still under the control of the government (both Khameini
and Ahmadinejad, he specified) and that rural areas are in
favor of Ahmadinejad, constituting 40% of the population.


4. (C) On the urban demonstrations, Marras believed that
they represented a power struggle among the mullahs. He
noted, however, that we haven't seen the "bazaar" taking
sides yet, and that this is a segment of the population
that acts as a barometer of things to come. The Iranians
fear foreign intervention, he noted. He commented that while
there is no common EU view, "Italy is isolated" (presumably
in the extent of its desire to avoid any confrontation). The
French want a public stance condemning the detention of
researcher Clothilde Reiss, while the GOI (as had also been
reiterated by the Iran desk, reftel) did not think the time
was right for provocation, and feels any approach to the
Iranians should be done in private. If the EU takes on the
issue publicly, Marras thought that "Ms. Reiss will be in
jail for a long time." Marras said there has not yet been an
EU-wide decision whether and at what level to attend the
inauguration of the new Iranian government. Italy is
cautious, he said, and "does not want to irritate Iran if
there is no need to do so," noting that the French admit that
for them, it's a domestic political issue, and that they need
to "show some muscle."


5. (C) Regarding Iran's attitude toward the US, he said the
Iranians did not know how to deal with President Obama, and
are therefore focusing more on blaming the UK than the US for
its troubles. Making the point that all factions are pro
nuclear, Marras noted that even Rafsanjani's speech accused
the west of wanting to steal Iran's nuclear technology. For
Iranians, he thought it was difficult to accept that India
and Pakistan should be nuclear, and not their country.

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Lebanon
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6. (C) Acting DAS Spirnak thanked Italy for its leadership
of UNIFIL, noting that the mandate would be renewed at the
end of August, and that Israel wants to see the UNIFIL
mandate strengthened. Marras responded that to do so might
be "difficult and dangerous," suggesting that Italy had been
able to do a good job because of the way in which the mandate
was written. Questioned for information on the July 14
Hezbollah arms depot explosion, Marras said he had not heard
anything recently.

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Syria
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7. (C) Marras said the GOI believes Syria can play a
positive role with respect to Iraq as well as the peace
process. He applauded US discussions with Syria and asked
for an update. Spirnak noted that the US was progressing in
its talks, with concerns focusing on human rights and
cracking down on foreign fighter networks. Marras noted that

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there would be no peace "tomorrow or next year," but that if
the situation in Syria were under control, it would help
take pressure off Israel.


8. (C) Near East desk Daniele Bosio reviewed the status of
the EU Association Agreement the European Commission is
negotiating with Syria, which contains significant trade
components. According to Bosio, the Agreement is almost
complete. The texts have been initialed and now need to be
translated into all EU official languages before a formal
signature, which will probably take place in September. The
Agreement will then need to be ratified by all national
Parliaments.
DIBBLE