ITALY: MAKING POLITICAL HAY ABOUT ISAF MISSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 000877

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO IT AF


SUBJECT: ITALY: MAKING POLITICAL HAY ABOUT ISAF MISSION

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Elizabeth Dibble. Reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. C)Summary: Lega Nord Leader Bossi grabbed an opportunity
afforded by what was supposed to be a routine vote to call
for a political level discussion on the ISAF mission in
Afghanistan and Italy's continued involvement. Citing the
high cost of the mission and increasing NATO casualties,
Bossi assessed that the objectives of the mission - bringing
democracy and prosperity to Afghanistan - were probably
unachievable even with greater sacrifices. Bossi's surprise
intervention was quickly echoed by the center-left Italy of
Values (IdV) party, with its parliamentary group leader
calling for a review of Italy's approach after Afghanistan's
August 20 elections. Defense Minister LaRussa, backed by the
Prime Minister, reaffirmed Italy's commitment to the ISAF
mission as part of the GOI's global strategy to combat
terrorism. Bossi's timing is largely driven by domestic
political calculus - the need to demonstrate independence
from Berlusconi and greater Lega Nord clout while not
rupturing the coalition before March 2010 regional elections.
But the discussion does tap into broad unease and the
apparent spreading violence in Afghanistan, recent Italian
casualties, and the expectation that there will be more. End
Summary.

Bossi: Time to Review ISAF Mission
--------------


2. SBU) Northern League President Umberto Bossi took
advantage of what was supposed to be a appropriations vote
for Italy's overseas missions to launch a broad debate on the
utility and future of Italian military participation,
particularly in Afghanistan. The bill - which goes to a vote
on July 30 or 31 and is expected to pass - simply provides
the resources to follow through on the Overseas Mission
decree that was unanimously endorsed by the Chamber of
Deputies on July 23.


3. SBU)In comments on July 25, Bossi noted that in light of
the rising casualties, increasing violence, and escalating
costs, Italy should consider bringing its troops home, not
just from Afghanistan but from a number of overseas missions,
including KFOR and UNIFIL. He also questioned whether the
objectives of bringing democracy and economic development to
Afghanistan were realistic. Bossi's blunt call was picked up
across the aisle by the leftist Italy of Values (IdV) party
headed by Antonio DiPietro who said that he opposed ""moving
from defending the local population to waging war ...
especially when good intentions have crumbled."" After an
outcry from within the government, and from PdL and most
opposition parties, both Lega and the IdV ""refined"" their
position, noting that they intended to support the funding
legislation but that the changing nature of the situation on
the ground in Afghanistan, including the Kabul government's
failure to deliver and the increased Taliban threat to
Italian and international forces argued for a political
discussion of the appropriate level of Italian engagement.
Noting a need to reassess after ""eight years of war,"" IdV
group leader Massimo Donadi called for a broader political
discussion after Afghanistan's August 20 elections.

LaRussa: Italy Committed in Afghanistan
--------------


4. SBU) Defense Minister LaRussa strongly rebutted the
skepticism about the mission, calling the ISAF mission
""unrenounceable and indispensable."" In his July 28 briefing
to the Chamber of Deputies, he underscored that the mission
had not changed - that the ISAF presence was necessary for
reconstruction and democratization to take hold - and that
Italy would stay until the job was done. He also detailed
short term plans to enhance the effectiveness of the Italian
effort. In addition to 400 troops for election security and
100 Carabienieri to train Afghan police, Italy plans to add
two Mangusta helicopters to the six already there, increase
the number of Predators, and substitute Linces with more
secure Freccia armored vehicles. LaRussa reiterated his
previous statements that he was lifting restrictions on
Italy's Tornado aircraft and that they would be allowed to
use their cannons to provide close air support as needed.
Prime Minister Berlusconi echoed LaRussa's comments, noting
that Italy had no intention
of changing its position on Afghanistan and chiding Bossi,
noting that his party had unanimously supported the
authorization for the missions in a July 23 vote. In comments
to PdL parliamentarians on July 29, Berlusconi was more
conciliatory, telling them that it would be appropriate to
discuss Italy's long-term ""exit stretagy"" after the Afghan
Presidential vote, but he stressed ""only in coordination with
our partners.""


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Finite Forces, Finite Money
--------------


5. C) Italy maintains three deployments of over 2,000
soldiers apiece -- UNIFIL, KFOR, and ISAF -- and is trying
to find new forces in a tight manpower and budgetary
environment. The GOI has pushed for a gradual draw down of
forces in Kosovo next year which will help its bottom line
and may free up troops for Afghanistan. Italy's current
command of the UNIFIL operation is a major factor in the size
of its contribution. MOD LaRussa's foreign policy advisor,
Alessandro Ruben, told us July 28 that if Italy hands over
command of UNIFIL to Spain next year, it expects to cut its
forces as well (septel). Ruben also stressed that Bossi --
who has a visceral dislike for foreign deployments -- is
making common cause with Italy's powerful and
independent-minded Finance Minister Tremonti who also thinks
they are a bad deal for Italy's core interests. By calling
for a cost-benefit analysis of its overseas obligations,
Bossi is serving notice of Lega's determination to get its
share of financing for projects it cares more deeply about,
including fiscal federalism and immigration issues.

Afghanistan: Creeping Doubt
--------------


6. C) Bossi and DiPietro are tapping into a growing Italian
unease about the course of the conflict in Afghanistan.
Since the spring, Italian forces appear to have taken on a
more aggressive posture and sought engagements with Taliban
forces in RC-West but have also come under more regular
attack. The Italian press has also extensively covered the
U.S. build up, the increases in Taliban strikes, and the
mounting NATO casualties. The death of a paratrooper on July
14, the first combat death since Berlusconi returned to
office in the Spring of 2008, has brought the issue to the
forefront of discussions. With Italian forces now regularly
engaged in firefights - extensively covered in the press and
commented upon by the government - the image of ISAF as
primarily a peacekeeping mission is eroding. The U.S.
build-up, our focus on the degrading situation in Pakistan,
and the launching of large new operations has fueled an image
of a situation slipping out of control. Both Bossi and
DiPietro seized on President Obama's comments about working
towards an ""exit strategy"" as a pretext to propose a rush to
the door. FM Frattini's Chief of Staff, Alain Economides told
Charge July 29 that ""we don't have a problem for now.""
However, he and Ruben noted that the public spin could veer
sharply.

Posturing for Regional Elections
--------------


7. C) Comment: The timing of Bossi's outburst has far more
to do with domestic political calculation. With the G8 and
European elections now over, the Northern League and
Berlusconi's PdL are in open competition for the same voters
in the March 2010 regional elections. Coming off a very
strong showing in the European Parliament elections, Bossi is
both demonstrating his independence from Berlusconi and is
also seeking greater leverage within the current coalition.
While Afghanistan is a non-issue for Lega's core supporters,
Bossi is actively trying to lure working class voters who
have in the past backed the flailing leftist parties across
the divide. Taking an anti-militarist stance burnishes his
appeal. Most of Italy's regional president posts are up for
election next Spring and Bossi is keen to ensure that Lega
Nord has the edge in the competition for the key posts
against its PdL coalition partner. Reminding Berlusconi,
with whom he works very well, of his growing relative power
aids that effort. End Comment.


DIBBLE
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