CORRECTED VERSION - SIPDIS CAPTION ADDED: G-20

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 000297 SIPDIS STATE FOR EEB/OMA ALEX WHITTINGTON TREASURY FOR IMB BILL MURDEN, WILBUR MONROE AND MARY BEASLEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2019 TAGS: ECON EFIN IT SUBJECT: CORRECTED VERSION - SIPDIS CAPTION ADDED: G-20 MEETINGS - ITALY'S POSTURE. REF: A. ROME 259 ¶B. SECSTATE 17502 ¶C. ROME 188 ¶D. 08 ROME 1489 ¶E. 08 ROME 1315 ¶F. 08 ROME 1299 Classified by Econ Minister Counselor Tom Delare for reasons 1.4 (b)(d) CORRECTED VERSION - SIPDIS CAPTION ADDED CONFIDENTIAL - Entire Text ¶1. Summary - Italy remains insulated from the worst of the crisis impacting financial institutions, but is looking at a deeper and longer recession than originally anticipated. The GOI has put in place various modest measures to bolster confidence in banks, increase credit to the economy, and provide some relief to households and the auto and consumer durables sectors. While a perennial topic of discussion, the economic downturn has not, at present, provoked general discontent or rejection of the government or its policies. In the international arena, Italy supports (without getting in front) filling gaps in a regulatory structure that the government considers inadequate to control a fast-moving trans-national financial industry. End Summary. Following are replies to ref B, keyed to the questions therein. ¶2. Stimulus: What has been proposed thus far? What more is being considered? Is there capacity to implement current and potential future measures? Per ref D the Italian government is implementing a modest (16 billion euro) stimulus package which it approved in December ¶2008. It consists of relief payments to low income households, limited mortgage relief, and guarantees for banks to raise additional capital through convertible bonds. Post reported via ref A the details of the bank-capital- increase portion of the measure, announced Feb 27. For details on other elements of the measure see http://ncd.state.sgov.gov/message/reference/0 8ROME1489 In February, the government implemented generous tax incentives for car buyers (ref C),with larger incentives for purchasers of energy efficient, low-polluting vehicles. Parallel measures were intended to boost sales of other consumer durables. Early indications (2 weeks of sales) indicate a significant boost (nearly double) in new car orders, but other data shows little response in household appliance sales. ; See http://ncd.state.sgov.gov/message/reference/0 9ROME188 ¶3. Financial Sector: What has been the approach to resolving bad assets: ring fencing, injection of capital, nationalization? As per ref F, Italian banks do not have on their balance sheets the types of toxic assets that have sunk financial institutions elsewhere. Exposure to both subprime mortgage instruments and the East European credit market appears to be quite limited. Nevertheless, the Italian government has focused on measures to ease credit, shore up bank balance sheets, and allay bank depositors' concerns. As noted above, the GOI,s stimulus package includes a euros 10-12 billion component to raise additional capital through government-guaranteed and subscribed convertible bonds (REF A). The government has scotched quickly any public speculation of bank nationalization. Italian banks, even at this late stage, insist they do not need additional capital and indicate that they are making credit available to households and firms, albeit at high rates relative to their average cost of funds, maintaining an average spread of around 400 basis points. ¶4. On regulation: what changes, national or supranational reforms are being implemented or considered? Italy is in step with European neighbors and others calling for an international regulatory regime capable of controlling trans-national financial institutions and practices. Economics and Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti is especially preoccupied by what he terms jurisdictional gaps, in regulation, tax enforcement, capital flows, and other financial activity. Beyond these general principles, the GOI has not articulated any specific plans or roles for international financial organizations or other bodies. See REF E for more on Italy's posture ahead of the November 2008 Washington Summit, which remains essentially the same at the present time. http://ncd.state.sgov.gov/message/reference/0 8ROME1315 ¶5. Real Economy: Have sensitive and vulnerable sectors been identified and protected? If so, by what means? Have governments commented on WTO commitments? What is the tenor of government and public discussion regarding protectionism? See above and ref C on measures to assist the Italian auto industry. The government also proposed measures targeted at the financial sector and consumer durables - notably, household appliances and furniture. As noted, the latter measures do not seem to have had an impact so far, probably because expenditures would be deducted from income taxes over a 10 year period, hence losing attractiveness to many potential purchasers. Most discussion of WTO obligations or free trade has been limited to concerns/criticism of the "buy American" provisions contained in the US stimulus bill. Press commentary generally warns of the dangers of protectionism. No serious commentator is calling for Italy to restrict trade or investment. ¶6. Social/Labor Impact: What steps have been taken to address an increase in unemployment? Have governments extended or provided new benefits to assist the unemployed? How is this being funded? What is the level of public protest related to the economic crisis and government response? The government is studying various ideas for extending unemployment benefits to employees who are ineligible for the large-employer relief scheme currently in place. Under existing arrangements, only employees of large firms can receive benefits (which are in turn funded by their employers). The government estimates that rising unemployment (currently 6.9%, projected to rise to 8% by the end of 2009) will fall primarily on workers in temporary contract status, i.e. those who have been shut out of the permanent work force by onerous government-mandated employee benefits. The economic slowdown has not provoked any significant civil protest, much less disorder. Italians are accustomed to their slow-growth, job-poor economy and tend to provision as a matter of habit for such periods of economic duress. ¶7. Dimension of the Crisis: What are the concerns regarding scope and duration of the current economic situation? What are views on the impact on emerging markets? What is the exposure of cross-border financial institutions? Have any proposals been put forward to assist such markets and institutions? Except for some as yet undetermined bank loan exposure to eastern and central European economies on the part of top bank Unicredit, Italy's financial system remains relatively insulated from the global, strictly financial, crisis. Economic forecasters in government and civil society have turned significantly gloomier on their predictions of the depth and duration of the current economic recession, however. Over the span of three months, GDP figures estimated for 2009 have gone from minus 0.5 percent last November to minus 2.9 percent more recently. Preliminary figures for 2008 GDP indicate a fall of one percent. ¶8. Role of the G-20: How is the G-20 process viewed? What is the level of support for the process? How is the G-20 process seen in terms of other multilateral processes and global economic architecture? Italians, views of the role of the G20 are ambivalent. On the one hand, they want to demonstrate they are a responsible member of the world's elite economies and see the G20 as a necessary vehicle for policy coordination at a dangerous time. The idealists in government, including Tremonti, seem fully invested in the notion that the "G" tent should expand in membership and possibly mission. Tremonti has spoken publicly about using these groupings to make progress on, for example, vaccination against disease in the developing world. On the other hand, some in the government see the G20 as eclipsing Italy's moment in the sun as G8 head, and are therefore less enthusiastic about the G20's emerging role. DIBBLE