LEBANON: EX-SAUDI AMBASSADOR TO LEBANON THINKS

S E C R E T RIYADH 000748 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, NEA/ARP E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR LE SA SUBJECT: LEBANON: EX-SAUDI AMBASSADOR TO LEBANON THINKS MARCH 14 COALITION WILL "EKE" OUT VICTORY REF: A. BEIRUT 605 ¶B. RIYADH 662 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Ambassador Richard Erdman, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S) Former Saudi ambassador to Lebanon and current Minister of Culture and Information Abdul Aziz Al-Khoja told Ambassador in a June 7 meeting that he and other Saudi leaders expect the March 14 coalition to "eke" out a victory in the June 7 Lebanese parliamentary elections. The minister said he believed that if the Hizballah-led March 8 alliance happened to do better than the March 14 coalition in the elections, Hizballah would offer Saad Hariri the premiereship. The Saudi government, he added, was advising Hariri not to join a unity government. Asked if Hariri was inclined to follow the Saudis' advice, Khoja said he judged that Hariri would refuse such an offer. ¶2. (C) Comment: Khoja's views on the election have evolved somewhat from a month ago. See ref B for a report of his meeting with NEA DAS David Hale on May 6, during which the minister expressed alarm over the possibility of a Hizballah victory. ¶3. (U) Other topics discussed at the meeting (mainly economic) will be reported septel. ERDMAN