SAG VIEWS ON SITUATION IN PAKISTAN, AFGHANISTAN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RIYADH 000566 NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR P, NEA(AA/S FELTMAN),INR/NESA, INR/TNC E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2019 TAGS: PREL EAID PGOV SA AF PK SUBJECT: SAG VIEWS ON SITUATION IN PAKISTAN, AFGHANISTAN REF: A. SECSTATE 31102 ¶B. SECSTATE 32712 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires David Rundell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) Key points -------------- ¶1. (S/NF) According to the Saudis, the U.S. should talk with moderate elements in the Taliban as they could not be defeated solely through military means. --(S) Deputy FM Prince Turki said Zardari should include Sharif and other opponents in the decision-making process if he wants to improve stability. --(C) With regard to the upcoming Tokyo conference, the Saudis believe the U.S. should solicit contributions for Pakistan from a broad range of countries and the international community should come up with a mechanism to ensure funds are going to the cause for which they are intended. --(S/NF) On the topic of aid to Afghanistan, Turki said corruption in the Karzai administration needs to be addressed before the SAG considers further assistance to Afghansitan. Comment -------------- ¶2. (S/NF) The Saudis have never liked or trusted Zardari, and recent political turmoil in Pakistan seems to have shaken their confidence in his political viability. Further, the local impact of the financial crisis and low oil prices are causing the Saudis to become more hard-nosed about their foreign assistance expenditures. Pakistan: Deal with political unrest first -------------- ¶3. (C) On April 7, the Charge and the acting DCM met with Deputy Foreign Minister for Multilateral Relations Dr. Prince Turki bin Mohamed al Kabeer to discuss the Saudi government's views on Pakistan and Afghanistan and to present the demarches in refs A and B. In response to our request for information on Saudi attendance at the upcoming Pakistan donors' conference in Tokyo, Prince Turki confirmed the Saudis would be attending, but had not yet determined who would make up their delegation or how much they might contribute. He emphasized the SAG's strong interest in Pakistan's well-being, as well as their urgent need for assistance, but also stated the political situation needed to be addressed first. ¶4. (S/NF) In particular, Prince Turki focused on what he saw as a need to engage 'moderate elements' of the Taliban in dialogue (drawing little distinction between the Taliban in Pakistan and that in Afghanistan),the need to resolve domestic political differences between the Zardari and the Sharif camps, and the need to effectively monitor where and how assistance monies are spent. He said the more the international community ignores 'moderates' in the Taliban, the more they are radicalized and that the Taliban could not be defeated solely by military means. Turki also cautioned against Iran, stating they were seeking to make political gains by taking advantage of instability. ¶5. (S) When asked about the SAG's views on Pakistan's domestic political situation, Prince Turki said he did not believe Zardari was as experienced as his wife had been and had hoped he would have been more inclusive of other political parties in the decision-making process (than was the case). Turki doubted Zardari would give Sharif a chance to participate despite Zardari's promises to the contrary during his recent visit to the Kingdom. At the same time, Turki said the Saudis do not favor one Pakistani political faction over another, their main concern is stability. ¶6. (C) Prince Turki encouraged the USG to solicit RIYADH 00000566 002 OF 002 contributions for the Tokyo conference from other countries, particularly the other GCC members, EU members, and Japan. He said the international community should come up with a way to ensure that aid to Pakistan was used for its intended purpose and should not become one of these programs where "2/3 of the money goes to administration." Afghanistan: Corruption is key -------------- ¶7. (S/NF) In response to the Charge's suggestion that the SAG should contribute to the various Afghan trust funds as well as to certain Afghan infrastructure projects, Prince Turki said the SAG would first have to be convinced the money would not be diverted into the pockets of Afghan officials, emphasizing his impression that corruption is pervasive throughout the Karzai government. He also pointed to the current global economic crisis as a reason Saudi contributions would be limited, saying there was a shortage of money everywhere and the USG should make its requests for money "more realistic." ¶8. (S) Prince Turki reinforced his previous point about watching out for Iran taking advantage of political instability, citing their inroads with Hamas despite Hamas' Sunni identity. He made it clear the SAG considers Pakistan and Afghanistan inextricably intertwined and that any solutions will have be tailored such that they deal with the problems in both. Prince Turki -------------- ¶9. (C) Prince Turki is the number two in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. While not a senior decision-maker himself, Post has found him to be a reliable source of insight into what the Saudi senior leadership is thinking. RUNDELL