THE YOUNG AND RESTLESS SHIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIYADH 000270 SIPDIS DHAHRAN SENDS, PASS TO NEA/ARP JOSHUA HARRIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2019 TAGS: KIRF KISL PGOV PINR PINS PREL PTER SA SUBJECT: THE YOUNG AND RESTLESS SHIA REF: A. 08 RIYADH 853 ¶B. 09 RIYADH 1 ¶C. 09 MANAMA 50 Classified By: CG Joseph Kenny for reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Key Points: -------------- -- The Saudi Shia youth are frustrated by their leaders' perceived lack of progress in attaining more rights, representation, and opportunities for their community. -- Mainstream Shia leaders desire increased Shia membership on the Shura Council, a ministerial level appointment, and key positions in university faculty and administration. -- One prominent Shia leader says that the postponement of 2009 municipal council elections will alienate many Shia youth from the SAG and will damage the progress made to date for democratic reform. -- Shia leaders believe that democracy will not lead to a Salafi government and cite current moderate, elected municipal council members as evidence. ¶2. (C) Comment: -------------- -- The mainstream Shia community leaders look to dialogue and cooperation with the SAG as the best means to improving their people's situation in Saudi Arabia. However, after more than a decade of dialogue, the rapidly growing population of Shia youth is becoming impatient. As they grow increasingly disillusioned with their current moderate leaders, they will inevitably look to a new leadership for answers. Post agrees with several influential Shia activists in their assessment that the restless and frustrated Shia youth may begin to look toward Ayatollah Ali Khameini of Iran and/or Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah as a substitute for their respected local Shia leadership. End key points and comment. ¶3. (C) CONSULATE REACHES OUT TO SHIA LEADERSHIP. Consul General Kenny and PolOff recently met with three influential, moderate Shia community leaders: Dr. Tawfiq al-Saif and Isa al-Muzel on Feb 4, and Jaffar al-Shayeb on Feb 7 (please protect names). These meetings followed a prior introduction to nearly a dozen social and political Shia activists and leaders in Qatif in December 2008. ¶3. (C) MAINSTREAM SHIA LEADERSHIP. Intellectual, religious, and political leaders of the Saudi Shia continue to spearhead efforts to engage the Saudi Arabian government in discussions (SAG) to improve the plight of the Shia. These moderate leaders collaborate with the SAG to bring about reforms on behalf of their Shia communities. Several of them frequently meet with high level SAG officials, most recently in August 2008 when a number of them met with Crown Prince Sultan. (Comment. Whether this is an attempt on the part of the SAG to placate the Shia leaders, remains to be seen. But for now the leaders feel the intent is genuine, and it is the only hope they have to hang on to. This access to SAG rulers also legitimizes their leadership positions in the local Shia communities. End Comment.) ¶4. (C) ENOUGH DIALOGUE, TIME FOR RESULTS. Jaffar al-Shayeb, a highly respected Shia municipal council member in Qatif, said, "in private (the SAG) says many good things, but (the Shia) need to see more public encouragement." He warned that without real "action" and "reform" by the SAG, the Shia youth will continue to grow more "frustrated and impatient." Al-Shayeb believes that without concrete results, the younger Shia will look increasingly toward Iran and/or Hezbollah for guidance on how to make their political voice heard. He said that the "responsibility is on the government" to prove that they are willing to make tangible changes (Reftel A). ¶5. (C) WHAT "RESULTS" DO THE SHIA WANT? Al-Shayeb said that he and other Shia leaders have asked the SAG to appoint more Shia to the Shura Council and at least one ministerial level appointment. (He did not specify which ministry.) He said that they have also voiced their desires for Shia to attain important administrative and faculty positions in Saudi universities. In his view, the SAG must take public, concrete actions so that the Shia community can plainly see that progress is being achieved and that they should remain patient. RIYADH 00000270 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) YOUNG AND RESTLESS IN QATIF. Post has seen some evidence supporting the concerns mentioned above of an increasingly restless Shia youth. With more than half of the Saudi population under the age of 25, Saudi Arabia's demographic makeup is decidedly young. In late December 2008, hundreds of Shia youth conducted rare public demonstrations in response to the Gaza conflict, holding up pictures of Hassan Nasrallah and chanting anti-U.S. and Israeli slogans (Reftel B). A number of young Shia contacts have communicated to PolOff a degree of hopelessness in realizing a more inclusive and responsive government, even cursing the royal family. Several Shia leaders have also noted that through satellite television and the internet the youth are well-informed of the rise of a Shia-led democracy in Iraq, which further adds to frustrations of their perceived disenfranchisement in their own country. It is not hard to imagine that recent riots and protests by Shia youth in neighboring Bahrain are also having an impact on their Saudi co-religionists (Reftel C). ¶7. (C) MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS POSTPONED? Dr. Tawfiq al-Saif, a highly respected Shia intellectual from Tarut, and Isa al-Muzel, an energetic, U.S.-educated municipal council member from Qatif, said that they have heard strong rumors that municipal elections slated for 2009 will be postponed indefinitely. (Note. Post has subsequently received information indicating that the elections may in fact go through this year. Septel. End note.) Municipal council member Jaffar al-Shayeb said that SAG officials are citing the need to review "rules and regulations" related to the electoral procedures as an excuse for the delay. He says this is bogus. All three Shia leaders believe that in reality the SAG is afraid that if the elections are allowed to proceed as originally scheduled, Saudi citizens ) not just the Shia ) will demand even more democratic reforms. Al-Shayeb warns that if these elections are postponed too long it will be yet one more reason for the young and frustrated Shia to give up on dialogue. ¶8. (C) SALAFIS AND DEMOCRACY. Dr. al-Saif and municipal council member al-Muzel discounted the notion that ultraconservative Salafi hardliners would easily win free and fair elections. They said that on multiple occasions they have met other elected municipal council members from conservative Sunni communities and noted that they were "religious, but very moderate and liberal." (Note. Whether true or not, this comment is a clear attempt to allay what they perceive as the USG's fear of free elections in Saudi Arabia inevitably leading to a Salafi government sympathetic to extremist ideologies. End note.) ¶9. (C) VISAS. The leaders took this opportunity to discuss U.S. visas and mentioned that certain respected members of the Shia community (or their family members) are waiting very long periods of time to obtain a visa to the U.S. In some instances they are denied a visa. They reasoned that given their positions in the community it is good for them to be given the opportunity to travel to and study in the U.S. They made an appeal to see if something could be done to improve the current situation. (Approved: JKenny) RUNDELL