Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09RIYADH1570
2009-11-24 14:02:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Embassy Riyadh
Cable title:
SAG LIKELY TO SEEK CEASE-FIRE ONLY WHEN HOUTHIS
how-toVZCZCXRO7164 OO RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHDIR DE RUEHRH #1570 3281402 ZNY SSSSS ZZH O 241402Z NOV 09 FM AMEMBASSY RIYADH TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1990 INFO RUEHZM/GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO IMMEDIATE 2774 RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS IMMEDIATE 5345 RUEHDH/AMCONSUL DHAHRAN IMMEDIATE 0354 RUEHJI/AMCONSUL JEDDAH IMMEDIATE 0462 RUMICEA/USCINCCENT INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL IMMEDIATE RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL IMMEDIATE
S E C R E T RIYADH 001570
NOFORN
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2019
TAGS: MOPS PREL SA YM
SUBJECT: SAG LIKELY TO SEEK CEASE-FIRE ONLY WHEN HOUTHIS
REPELLED
REF: A. SANAA 2117
B. RIYADH 1558
Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES B. SMITH, REASONS 1.4 (A),(B) & (D)
S E C R E T RIYADH 001570
NOFORN
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2019
TAGS: MOPS PREL SA YM
SUBJECT: SAG LIKELY TO SEEK CEASE-FIRE ONLY WHEN HOUTHIS
REPELLED
REF: A. SANAA 2117
B. RIYADH 1558
Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES B. SMITH, REASONS 1.4 (A),(B) & (D)
1. (S/NF) Ref A reports possible cease-fire discussions
between Yemeni government (ROYG) and Houthi representatives.
Embassy Riyadh is not aware of parallel cease-fire
discussions between the Saudi government and Houthi
representatives, though we do not dismiss the possibility.
Continuing Saudi mobilization suggests that the military
leadership is not yet prepared for a cease fire. However,
this would not preclude Saudi contacts with Houthi
representatives to open a channel for communications when the
time is right. It is also possible that there will be
discussions on the margins of the Hajj. It is clear that SAG
and ROYG officials continue to coordinate closely. FM Saud
and Assistant Minister of Interior Prince Mohammed bin Nayif
traveled secretly to Sanaa at least once in the last week and
various Yemeni officials, including Deputy Prime Minister
Alimi, have come to Riyadh for meetings with King Abdullah
and other officials.
2. (S) Mission assesses that the fighting will continue
until the Saudi military objectives are met. Their stated
objectives include expelling all Houthis from Saudi
territory, creating a buffer zone on the Saudi side of the
border, and pushing the Houthis back at least ten kilometers
inside Yemeni territory to deter future attacks. A possible
secondary objective could be to maintain a second front open
against the Houthis to relieve pressure on the Yemeni Army
long enough for ROYG to reconstitute their force to some
degree, though the Saudis themselves have not told us this.
3. (S) The SAG obviously would prefer to achieve these
objectives as quickly as possible, to avoid stirring up
sympathetic support for the Houthi (Shi'a) effort among their
own population. As per ref b, the SAG's public rhetoric has
shifted to portraying the fighting as largely over to mollify
Muslim sensibilities about fighting during the Hajj period,
and we anticipate that the SAG will continue to downplay
action on the border, even as the fighting continues.
SMITH
NOFORN
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2019
TAGS: MOPS PREL SA YM
SUBJECT: SAG LIKELY TO SEEK CEASE-FIRE ONLY WHEN HOUTHIS
REPELLED
REF: A. SANAA 2117
B. RIYADH 1558
Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES B. SMITH, REASONS 1.4 (A),(B) & (D)
1. (S/NF) Ref A reports possible cease-fire discussions
between Yemeni government (ROYG) and Houthi representatives.
Embassy Riyadh is not aware of parallel cease-fire
discussions between the Saudi government and Houthi
representatives, though we do not dismiss the possibility.
Continuing Saudi mobilization suggests that the military
leadership is not yet prepared for a cease fire. However,
this would not preclude Saudi contacts with Houthi
representatives to open a channel for communications when the
time is right. It is also possible that there will be
discussions on the margins of the Hajj. It is clear that SAG
and ROYG officials continue to coordinate closely. FM Saud
and Assistant Minister of Interior Prince Mohammed bin Nayif
traveled secretly to Sanaa at least once in the last week and
various Yemeni officials, including Deputy Prime Minister
Alimi, have come to Riyadh for meetings with King Abdullah
and other officials.
2. (S) Mission assesses that the fighting will continue
until the Saudi military objectives are met. Their stated
objectives include expelling all Houthis from Saudi
territory, creating a buffer zone on the Saudi side of the
border, and pushing the Houthis back at least ten kilometers
inside Yemeni territory to deter future attacks. A possible
secondary objective could be to maintain a second front open
against the Houthis to relieve pressure on the Yemeni Army
long enough for ROYG to reconstitute their force to some
degree, though the Saudis themselves have not told us this.
3. (S) The SAG obviously would prefer to achieve these
objectives as quickly as possible, to avoid stirring up
sympathetic support for the Houthi (Shi'a) effort among their
own population. As per ref b, the SAG's public rhetoric has
shifted to portraying the fighting as largely over to mollify
Muslim sensibilities about fighting during the Hajj period,
and we anticipate that the SAG will continue to downplay
action on the border, even as the fighting continues.
SMITH