TEMPTING, BUT NO: SAUDIS RESIST IRANIAN PROVOCATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RIYADH 001547 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV SA IR YM SUBJECT: TEMPTING, BUT NO: SAUDIS RESIST IRANIAN PROVOCATION REF: A. RIYADH 1507 ¶B. RIYADH 1524 RIYADH 00001547 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador James B. Smith for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Iranian rhetoric surrounding the Saudi reaction to Houthi attacks has increased as Iranian religious and political figures weigh in. However, Saudi religious leaders have responded with moderation, eschewing sectarian provocation while still attempting to provide religious justification for the SAG's actions. As the Hajj approaches, official Saudi statements are gradually beginning to shift their focus, characterizing the border conflict as a "mission accomplished" and focusing instead on security preparations for the Hajj and the plight of IDPs. Many in the media are also taking a step back, continuing to point fingers at Iran but expressing confidence that a moderate and just Saudi Arabia will stay above the fray. While Iran clearly believes the war of words (ref A) is not over, Saudi Arabia's interest in seeing a safe and successful Hajj-- and perhaps its recognition of Iran's relative strength-- appears to be inhibiting its will to fire back. END SUMMARY. IRAN: SAUDIS GUILTY OF "ETHNIC CLEANSING" -------------- ¶2. (U) Following Iranian FM Manouchehr Mottaki's warning to regional powers against intervention in Yemeni internal affairs, and Iranian Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani's criticism of Saudi Arabia's "tragic moves against Muslims" (ref B),a chorus of Iranian voices has accused the SAG of anti-Shia bias, condemned it for killing fellow Muslims, and called upon the OIC to intervene to stop this "ethnic cleansing." ¶3. (U) On November 13, Iranian Guardian Council Secretary Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati told worshipers at Friday prayers in Tehran that certain countries, with Saudi Arabia in the lead, were committing acts that "make it appear they are determined to exterminate all Shia." "Why is Saudi Arabia sending planes to oppress the Shia?" Jannati asked. He went on to question the efficiency of the Organization of the Islamic Council (OIC) and called upon the group for quick action. The same day, the Iranian Society of the Seminary Teachers of Qom released a statement that called for the end of "direct interference of certain Arab regimes in the ethnic cleansing of Shia." The statement said that the silence from the OIC "regarding this atrocity leaves room for thought" and the group called upon the OIC to employ all diplomatic means to "end the bloodshed." ¶4. (U) Two days later, 250 members of the Iranian Majlis called on the heads of Islamic states to "do all they could" to stop the "massacre of Muslims in Yemen by jet fighters of Saudi Arabia." According to an Iranian Republic News Agency press release, the MPs called the air strikes "a crime" and pointed out that innocent Muslims were being killed during a time of Muslim unity (the Hajj). ¶5. (U) On November 17, the Army and a Grand Ayatollah added their two cents. Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Hassan Firouzabadi, spoke with the Iranian Student News Agency on November 17 and warned that "the murder of Yemeni Shia by Saudi Arabia is the beginning of Wahabbi governmental terrorism and represents a danger to Islam and the region." In an official statement, Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi accused Saudi's Grand Mufti of "supporting the Saudi government in suppressing Yemeni Shia citizens." SAUDI OFFICIALS: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED, NOW FOR THE HAJJ -------------- -------------- ¶6. (U) Despite continuing provocation from Iran, the SAG's rhetoric appears to be cooling off. Military operations on the border are being characterized as "mission accomplished," and features are focusing on security preparations for the Hajj and the plight of IDPs. In his weekly cabinet meeting, King Abdullah announced that "the aggression has been contained and the Saudi territories have been cleared." In a November 15 press release, Minister of the Interior, Prince Nayef, praised the heroism of the Saudi forces and stressed that the country "will be safe." In the same press release, Director General of the Civil Defense, General Saad Al-Tuwaijri said that all citizens have been provided with RIYADH 00001547 002.2 OF 003 housing, food, medication and money. He added that all necessary coordination was being taken with the Ministry of Education to provide education for the displaced students. ¶7. (U) A full page article in daily Al-Jazira on November 17 once again showed Saudis in uniform, but these soldiers were protecting pilgrims-- not the border region. The feature article outlined the logistical and security preparations the SAG had made for this year's Hajj, stressing that it was a holy occasion that the SAG took great pride in administering well. HOUTHI AGGRESSION NOT A SECTARIAN ISSUE -------------- ¶8. (C) In a November 16 interview with Saudi daily Al-Watan, Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdulaziz Al-Sheikh condemned the Houthi incursion and alleged Iranian involvement, but avoided mentioning the Houthis' sectarian affiliation. The "cooperation of Iranians with the Houthis is a cooperation of offense and aggression," he explained, and Saudi forces were simply fighting back in defense. "The Kingdom didn't raid their land or start the aggression," he said, "therefore we are righteous and they are not." Al-Sheikh called the soldiers killed in the fighting "martyrs" and asked that Imams and preachers speak the truth of the situation because many "evil satellite channels are prompting wrong facts." (COMMENT: Al-Sheikh is defending a very serious allegation from the Iranians, principally that no Muslim shall kill another Muslim. As the highest religious authority in the Kingdom, his justification for killing the Houthi rebels is vital to maintain public support for the SAG forces. It is also significant that Al-Sheikh does not refer to the Houthi in sectarian terms or question their faith as Muslims. He makes it clear that the Saudi forces are defending the Kingdom against attack, not fighting against unbelievers or non-Muslims. END COMMENT.) ¶9. (U) In his November 13 sermon at the Holy Mosque in Mecca, Sheikh Dr. Saleh bin Humyed also resisted fanning the flames of sectarian dissent. "Pilgrimage should not be turned into political forums, where ideologies, parties, sects, schools of thought, and systems of government conflict with one another," he said. "You have seen that a deviant group and an aggressive gang has tried to do harm to the people of God's Holy Mosque by attacking their country, but God has defeated them by his grace, favor, and protection. God be praised. The Kingdom has enough power to deter the aggressors, maintain its security, and protect its holy places...and visitors of the Two Holy Mosques." BUT SOME JUST CAN'T RESIST -------------- ¶10. (C) A group of 40 clerics was quicker to point the sectarian finger, issuing a statement on November 15 that claimed "Iran destabilizes Muslim nations by implanting, financing and arming its agents to spread Shia beliefs." While this statement could refer to Saudi concerns about Iranian meddling via Hezbollah or Hamas, the timing of the statement likely refers to the now widespread belief that Iran is supporting the Houthi rebels. (COMMENT: This group of clerics was comprised mainly of professors in Islamic universities. As such, they represent more conservative voices that may not reflect the sanctioned party line. END COMMENT.) IRANIAN PROVOCATION: TSK, TSK, TSK -------------- ¶11. (U) In an editorial in Saudi-owned pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat on November 16, editor Tariq Al-Homayed criticized Iran's attempts to turn the border conflict into a religious issue and portrayed Saudi Arabia as somehow above the fray. "Iran finds itself facing a dilemma because Saudi Arabia enjoys considerable Arab, Islamic, and international support for its right to defend itself," he writes. "As usual Iran is attempting to exploit religion," he continues, noting that while Iran had criticized Saudi Arabia for fighting during a holy month, Iran was in fact the one who started the fight. "They have been exposed," Al-Homayed concludes, "particularly following the threats they made against Saudi Arabia with respect to the Hajj season." ¶12. (U) In an interview with Al-Arabiya television, Al-Watan editor Jamal Khashoggi voiced similar frustration RIYADH 00001547 003.2 OF 003 with Iran's role in provoking the Houthi conflict and suggested that a moderate, reasonable Saudi Arabia would react appropriately. "Saudi Arabia will open channels of direct communication with Iran," he predicted, but cautioned "the Iranian position does not end this case." While Iran's withdrawal might help bring the Houthi conflict more quickly to an end, "this issue can be eliminated only by the Yemeni Government and the Houthis themselves." COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) While Iran's provocation continues, the Saudis appear increasingly inclined to remove themselves from the fray. Post contacts tell us Iran's provocative behavior during the Hajj season is really nothing new, but it has generated more attention-- and more anxiety-- than usual this year thanks to the suspicious timing of the Houthi incursion. Now that the Saudis have secured the border region-- or at least believe others are convinced they have done so-- they appear content to return to their preferred regional role: Custodians of the Two Holy Mosques, and guarantors of a safe and inclusive Hajj. This may reflect the Saudis' recognition that, at least for the moment, they have no business trying to take on Tehran. END COMMENT. SMITH