TEMPTING, BUT NO: SAUDIS RESIST IRANIAN PROVOCATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RIYADH 001547

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV SA IR YM
SUBJECT: TEMPTING, BUT NO: SAUDIS RESIST IRANIAN PROVOCATION

REF: A. RIYADH 1507

B. RIYADH 1524

RIYADH 00001547 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Ambassador James B. Smith for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Iranian rhetoric surrounding the Saudi reaction to
Houthi attacks has increased as Iranian religious and
political figures weigh in. However, Saudi religious leaders
have responded with moderation, eschewing sectarian
provocation while still attempting to provide religious
justification for the SAG's actions. As the Hajj approaches,
official Saudi statements are gradually beginning to shift
their focus, characterizing the border conflict as a "mission
accomplished" and focusing instead on security preparations
for the Hajj and the plight of IDPs. Many in the media are
also taking a step back, continuing to point fingers at Iran
but expressing confidence that a moderate and just Saudi
Arabia will stay above the fray. While Iran clearly believes
the war of words (ref A) is not over, Saudi Arabia's interest
in seeing a safe and successful Hajj-- and perhaps its
recognition of Iran's relative strength-- appears to be
inhibiting its will to fire back. END SUMMARY.


IRAN: SAUDIS GUILTY OF "ETHNIC CLEANSING"
--------------


2. (U) Following Iranian FM Manouchehr Mottaki's warning to
regional powers against intervention in Yemeni internal
affairs, and Iranian Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani's criticism
of Saudi Arabia's "tragic moves against Muslims" (ref B),a
chorus of Iranian voices has accused the SAG of anti-Shia
bias, condemned it for killing fellow Muslims, and called
upon the OIC to intervene to stop this "ethnic cleansing."


3. (U) On November 13, Iranian Guardian Council Secretary
Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati told worshipers at Friday prayers in
Tehran that certain countries, with Saudi Arabia in the lead,
were committing acts that "make it appear they are determined
to exterminate all Shia." "Why is Saudi Arabia sending
planes to oppress the Shia?" Jannati asked. He went on to
question the efficiency of the Organization of the Islamic
Council (OIC) and called upon the group for quick action.
The same day, the Iranian Society of the Seminary Teachers of
Qom released a statement that called for the end of "direct
interference of certain Arab regimes in the ethnic cleansing
of Shia." The statement said that the silence from the OIC
"regarding this atrocity leaves room for thought" and the
group called upon the OIC to employ all diplomatic means to
"end the bloodshed."


4. (U) Two days later, 250 members of the Iranian Majlis
called on the heads of Islamic states to "do all they could"
to stop the "massacre of Muslims in Yemen by jet fighters of
Saudi Arabia." According to an Iranian Republic News Agency
press release, the MPs called the air strikes "a crime" and
pointed out that innocent Muslims were being killed during a
time of Muslim unity (the Hajj).


5. (U) On November 17, the Army and a Grand Ayatollah added
their two cents. Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces,
Major General Hassan Firouzabadi, spoke with the Iranian
Student News Agency on November 17 and warned that "the
murder of Yemeni Shia by Saudi Arabia is the beginning of
Wahabbi governmental terrorism and represents a danger to
Islam and the region." In an official statement, Grand
Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi accused Saudi's Grand Mufti
of "supporting the Saudi government in suppressing Yemeni
Shia citizens."


SAUDI OFFICIALS: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED, NOW FOR THE HAJJ
-------------- --------------


6. (U) Despite continuing provocation from Iran, the SAG's
rhetoric appears to be cooling off. Military operations on
the border are being characterized as "mission accomplished,"
and features are focusing on security preparations for the
Hajj and the plight of IDPs. In his weekly cabinet meeting,
King Abdullah announced that "the aggression has been
contained and the Saudi territories have been cleared." In a
November 15 press release, Minister of the Interior, Prince
Nayef, praised the heroism of the Saudi forces and stressed
that the country "will be safe." In the same press release,
Director General of the Civil Defense, General Saad
Al-Tuwaijri said that all citizens have been provided with

RIYADH 00001547 002.2 OF 003


housing, food, medication and money. He added that all
necessary coordination was being taken with the Ministry of
Education to provide education for the displaced students.


7. (U) A full page article in daily Al-Jazira on November 17
once again showed Saudis in uniform, but these soldiers were
protecting pilgrims-- not the border region. The feature
article outlined the logistical and security preparations the
SAG had made for this year's Hajj, stressing that it was a
holy occasion that the SAG took great pride in administering
well.


HOUTHI AGGRESSION NOT A SECTARIAN ISSUE
--------------


8. (C) In a November 16 interview with Saudi daily Al-Watan,
Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdulaziz Al-Sheikh condemned the Houthi
incursion and alleged Iranian involvement, but avoided
mentioning the Houthis' sectarian affiliation. The
"cooperation of Iranians with the Houthis is a cooperation of
offense and aggression," he explained, and Saudi forces were
simply fighting back in defense. "The Kingdom didn't raid
their land or start the aggression," he said, "therefore we
are righteous and they are not." Al-Sheikh called the
soldiers killed in the fighting "martyrs" and asked that
Imams and preachers speak the truth of the situation because
many "evil satellite channels are prompting wrong facts."
(COMMENT: Al-Sheikh is defending a very serious allegation
from the Iranians, principally that no Muslim shall kill
another Muslim. As the highest religious authority in the
Kingdom, his justification for killing the Houthi rebels is
vital to maintain public support for the SAG forces. It is
also significant that Al-Sheikh does not refer to the Houthi
in sectarian terms or question their faith as Muslims. He
makes it clear that the Saudi forces are defending the
Kingdom against attack, not fighting against unbelievers or
non-Muslims. END COMMENT.)


9. (U) In his November 13 sermon at the Holy Mosque in
Mecca, Sheikh Dr. Saleh bin Humyed also resisted fanning the
flames of sectarian dissent. "Pilgrimage should not be
turned into political forums, where ideologies, parties,
sects, schools of thought, and systems of government conflict
with one another," he said. "You have seen that a deviant
group and an aggressive gang has tried to do harm to the
people of God's Holy Mosque by attacking their country, but
God has defeated them by his grace, favor, and protection.
God be praised. The Kingdom has enough power to deter the
aggressors, maintain its security, and protect its holy
places...and visitors of the Two Holy Mosques."


BUT SOME JUST CAN'T RESIST
--------------


10. (C) A group of 40 clerics was quicker to point the
sectarian finger, issuing a statement on November 15 that
claimed "Iran destabilizes Muslim nations by implanting,
financing and arming its agents to spread Shia beliefs."
While this statement could refer to Saudi concerns about
Iranian meddling via Hezbollah or Hamas, the timing of the
statement likely refers to the now widespread belief that
Iran is supporting the Houthi rebels. (COMMENT: This group
of clerics was comprised mainly of professors in Islamic
universities. As such, they represent more conservative
voices that may not reflect the sanctioned party line. END
COMMENT.)


IRANIAN PROVOCATION: TSK, TSK, TSK
--------------


11. (U) In an editorial in Saudi-owned pan-Arab daily
Al-Sharq Al-Awsat on November 16, editor Tariq Al-Homayed
criticized Iran's attempts to turn the border conflict into a
religious issue and portrayed Saudi Arabia as somehow above
the fray. "Iran finds itself facing a dilemma because Saudi
Arabia enjoys considerable Arab, Islamic, and international
support for its right to defend itself," he writes. "As
usual Iran is attempting to exploit religion," he continues,
noting that while Iran had criticized Saudi Arabia for
fighting during a holy month, Iran was in fact the one who
started the fight. "They have been exposed," Al-Homayed
concludes, "particularly following the threats they made
against Saudi Arabia with respect to the Hajj season."


12. (U) In an interview with Al-Arabiya television,
Al-Watan editor Jamal Khashoggi voiced similar frustration

RIYADH 00001547 003.2 OF 003


with Iran's role in provoking the Houthi conflict and
suggested that a moderate, reasonable Saudi Arabia would
react appropriately. "Saudi Arabia will open channels of
direct communication with Iran," he predicted, but cautioned
"the Iranian position does not end this case." While Iran's
withdrawal might help bring the Houthi conflict more quickly
to an end, "this issue can be eliminated only by the Yemeni
Government and the Houthis themselves."


COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) While Iran's provocation continues, the Saudis
appear increasingly inclined to remove themselves from the
fray. Post contacts tell us Iran's provocative behavior
during the Hajj season is really nothing new, but it has
generated more attention-- and more anxiety-- than usual this
year thanks to the suspicious timing of the Houthi incursion.
Now that the Saudis have secured the border region-- or at
least believe others are convinced they have done so-- they
appear content to return to their preferred regional role:
Custodians of the Two Holy Mosques, and guarantors of a safe
and inclusive Hajj. This may reflect the Saudis' recognition
that, at least for the moment, they have no business trying
to take on Tehran. END COMMENT.
SMITH