SAUDIS WILL DO WHAT IT TAKES TO SECURE BORDER

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 RIYADH 001490 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2019 TAGS: MOPS MASS PREL SA YM IR SUBJECT: SAUDIS WILL DO WHAT IT TAKES TO SECURE BORDER REF: A. RIYADH 1478 ¶B. RIYADH 1470 RIYADH 00001490 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador James B. Smith, reasons 1.4 (a),(b) & (d) SUMMARY & COMMENT -------------- ¶1. (S/NF) Military operations along the Saudi-Yemeni border continue, with the largest deployment of Saudi land forces since the first Gulf war. Saudi Assistant Minister of Defense Khalid bin Sultan claimed on November 7 that the area of the initial incursion was "fully under control" but as of mid-day November 8 Embassy cannot confirm this, though we do not doubt the SAG's ultimate ability to secure the area. The consensus analysis of all Mission elements is that the Saudis wish to avoid being drawn into the ROYG's fight with the Houthis, and have no intention of moving ground forces beyond the border region. It appears that most of the military operations and airstrikes have been confined to that region. Despite denials by both governments, limited Saudi cross-border operations will likely be needed to clean out the border area and secure it. These movements will likely be coordinated with and have the support of the ROYG. Casualties are mounting though numbers are unclear. (Note: Septel will discuss impact on civilian population and relief operations. End note.) Other than the Assistant Defense Minister and regional governor, the senior leadership has refrained from commenting on the situation, preferring that SAG statements be attributed to "an official source." Domestic public and regional opinion strongly supports the Saudi action. End summary & comment. MILITARY OPERATIONS CONTINUE -------------- ¶2. (S/NF) Following a visit to the Yemen border area the evening of November 7, Assistant Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Sultan told reporters that the situation on the border "is fully under control" and that all the territory seized by "infiltrators," especially Jabal Dukhan had been "completely controlled, even if there were "some infiltrators in some places." The fighting has spread from Jabal Dukhan to towns between the Bani Malik and Al-Khubah regions along the Saudi-Yemeni border in the province of Jizan, and both land and air operations continue. Embassy cannot confirm that SAG forces are completely in control, but with so many Saudi forces converging on the area, it is likely that the area �A;will be secure soon, though the Houthi forces (or "infiltrators" as the SAG terms them) proved more difficult to dislodge than expected. SAUDI GROUND FORCES AT BUT NOT OVER BORDER -------------- ¶3. (S) Several battalions and tank units have been deployed to the Yemeni border, but for both logistical and political reasons are not likely to cross into Yemeni territory. The terrain is mountainous and difficult to navigate, and SAG leadership wants to avoid being drawn into a messy internal conflict in Yemeni territory. SAG statements have been careful to avoid using the term "Houthis" to characterize the rebels, instead referring to them as "infiltrators," presumably to avoid being seen as taking sides in the Yemeni fight. LARGEST SAUDI DEPLOYMENT SINCE 1ST GULF WAR -------------- ¶4. (S/NF) Forces in the area constitute the largest deployment of Saudi forces since the first Gulf war and include Saudi Border Forces under the Ministry of Interior (MOI) and various MODA units. They include two Royal Saudi Land Forces (RSLF) light infantry battalions, deployed with 155m M-198s artillery pieces from the Southern Area Command, approximately 20km west southwest of Malahit, Yemen within Saudi territory. These battalions likely include the 19th Light Infantry from Ash Sharurah and Southern Command artillery elements. In support of this deployment RIYADH 00001490 002.2 OF 003 approximately 95 vehicles rolled out of the Ash Sharurah base and another 100 vehicles moved from Najran toward the border area. Other units being deployed include the 1st Airborne Brigade and 85th Special Operations Battalion from Tabuk; 4 AH-64s and 2 UH-60s and One Battalion M-60 tanks from King Khaled Military City; and the 11th Infantry Brigade, a Military Police brigade and an Artillery Brigade from Khamis Mushayt. ¶5. (S/NF) F-15s based in Khamis Mushayt have been carrying out the bombing raids. An additional eight F-15s were moved from Dhahran to Khamis Mushayt November 6. This brings the total number of F-15s stationed at Khamis Mushayt to 40 fighters. Utility and attack helicopters have been deployed from King Khalid Military City. ¶6. (S/NF) A military source told DAO on November 6 that they expected Saudi air operations would last &4 days8 in order for the "Kingdom to defend its honor." It would appear from what we can see as of November 8 that air operations are likely to continue for at least several more days. ¶7. (S/NF) RSAF Commander LtG Abdulrahman bin Fahd Al Faisal is commanding the RSAF air campaign from Riyadh and RSLF Deputy Commander MG Khalid bin Bandar coordinating ground operations in the south near the tactical operation area. CASUALTIES MOUNTING BUT NUMBERS UNCLEAR -------------- ¶8. (S/NF) According to media reports, 170 "armed infiltrators" have been captured, and 3 Saudi soldiers were killed and 15 others injured. RSAF bombing of a Saudi village reportedly resulted in casualties; SPA report Prince Khalid bin Sultan denied reports that a number of Saudis had been captured by Huthi rebels, instead he said 5 "had gone missing" but one returned. Sensitive reporting indicates that 7 members of a Saudi reconnaissance unit were, in fact, captured by Houthi rebels; the rebels themselves claimed to be holding Saudi soldiers and said they would be shown on television though this has not yet occurred. An unknown number of civilians have also been killed, both by friendly fire (in one instance the RSAF mistakenly bombed a target in a Saudi village that resulted in casualties) and by fire from Houthi forces fighting inside various villages. Casualty figures in the press are not likely to be accurate. Septel will provide details on impact on civilian population and planned relief operations. SENIOR ROYALS MUM, BUT STRONG OFFICIAL STATEMENTS INSIST ON RIGHT TO DEFEND BORDERS -------------- ¶9. (U) Aside from Prince Khalid bin Sultan, and the Governor of Jizan, who strongly denounced the attack and has been visible in condoling families of victims, the senior leadership has refrained from public comment on the situation. The Saudi government's pronouncements have come through Saudi Press Agency (SPA) releases attributed to an "official source." These statements have insisted that the Saudi goal is to secure its border and deter further attacks. They have officially acknowledged evacuating villages in the vicinity of Jabal Dukhan; reinforcing the Border Guard with unspecified numbers of units from the Armed Forces; and carrying out airstrikes on Houthi targets within Saudi borders. The SAG has said operations will continue until all locations within Saudi territory have been "completely and fully cleared of any hostile element," and maintained they will also take "necessary precautions to prevent any future similar incidents. The Shoura Council issued an official statement on November 6, condemning the "infiltration and abuses done by militants into Jabal Al-Dukhan" and expressed support for the actions taken by the King to "protect its territory, secure its borders and deter the aggressors." DOMESTIC SUPPORT FOR ACTION; SOME CONCERN AMONG SHIA -------------- -------------- ¶10. (C) Domestic Saudi opinion seems to generally support the RIYADH 00001490 003.2 OF 003 government. Saudi Red Crescent has mobilized a blood donation campaign. Saudi editorials and op-ed and other opinion pieces have universally denounced the Houthi attack and accuse the Houthis of acting as agents of Iran intent on pitting Saudi Arabia against Yemen. ¶11. (C) According to a Western Province contact some Saudi Shia along the border sympathize with the Houthi cause. Due to their own sense of discrimination and oppression, Saudi Shia feel an emotional bond with the &similarly oppressed8 Houthi. Our contact asserted that many residents along the Saudi/Yemen border region tend to feel a stronger connection with (and allegiance to) their tribal identity than with/to nationality. The contact commented that from his point of view the Houthi were &caught between a rock and a hard place,8 i.e., the Saleh government in Yemen and, now, the Saudi military. He described the situation as &a proxy war8 between Iran and Saudi Arabia, making no bones about Iranian support of Houthi rebels. On the other hand, there is no indication of Shia solidarity with Yemeni Shia in either Najran or the Eastern Province. The current governor of Najran, son of the King, is quite popular. His tenure has led to a warming of relations with the Ismaeli/Shia population of Najran. NEIGHBORS EXPRESS SUPPORT -------------- ¶12. (U) Regional governments, the GCC and Arab League have expressed strong support for Saudi Arabia,s right to defend itself. GCC Secretary General Attiyeh said that "any move to undermine Saudi Arabia,s security would be considered an attack on GCC Security." UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan said "we consider that any harm to Saudi Arabia is harm to the UAE," adding that they supported Saudi Arabia's action to defend its territory as threats to security should be confronted strongly and firmly." Jordanian government spokesperson Nabil Sherif said Saudi Arabia was "a pillar of Arab security" and had the right to defend its territory by all means. Kuwait's Ambassador to Saudi Arabia said Kuwait "will not accept any encroachment or aggression against any inch of the Saudi national soil" and expressed confidence in the Saudis' capacity to give an "unforgettable lesson to the aggressors." QATAR AN OUTLIER -------------- ¶13. (U) Qatar's official response was the noticeable outlier. Al-Jazeera TV reported on November 6 that Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifah Al-Thani conducted a five-hour visit to Tehran and met with both Supreme Leader Khameni and President Ahmedinajad, where the leaders reportedly discussed the situation in Yemen and escalating Saudi-Iranian tensions. Following the meeting, Qatari PM Hamad bin Jasim bin Jabr Al-Thani told Al-Jazeera that Iran and Saudi Arabia were "major countries in the region" who Qatar hopes "will communicate and have understanding." With respect to Yemen he notes "we first support the unity of Yemen, and we hope, in the meantime, that this issue will be resolved through political dialogue." (NOTE: The Emir of Qatar had just completed a visit to Saudi Arabia prior to his trip to Iran. END NOTE.) U.S. STATEMENT CRITICIZED -------------- ¶14. (U) A commentary in Al Hayat, which likely reflects broader opinion, criticized a statement by the U.S. administration on the Saudi military operations, saying that "Washington expressed its concern about targeting civilians without making any reference to the Kingdom's right to protect its sovereignty and security." SMITH