CONFIDENCE BUT NOT STABILITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000074 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2019 TAGS: PGOV ECON LG SUBJECT: CONFIDENCE BUT NOT STABILITY REF: RIGA 50 Classified By: Charge d'affaires a.i. Bruce D. Rogers. Reason: 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C/NF) Summary: PM Godmanis survived a confidence vote but it does nothing to put an end to Latvia's political turmoil. The four parties of the current coalition were each unwilling to bring the down the current government and launch a process they could not manage, but we believe a lot is going on behind the scenes to see what other combinations are possible. The opposition is frustrated by their inability to break through into the debate in a serous way. President Zatlers' role in unclear. Although he is the person most directly responsible for starting the turmoil with his ultimatum, he is stepping back and blaming the parties for "playing politics" with what is an inherently political process. The public is fed up, although there are indications that they retain respect for PM Godmanis. The current situation seems untenable for an extended period, but solutions remain elusive. A new or expanded coalition, still headed by Godmanis, seems the most likely solution at the moment, but it will require a lot of people to back off of some strong positions. End summary. ¶2. (C/NF) The latest round in Latvia's political struggles was launched last week when the two largest parties in the coalition, Greens and Farmers (ZZS) and People's Party (TP) made separate announcements indicating they were ready to pull out. Both were staking out populist ground to shore up public support because while one could be left out of a new coalition, it is virtually impossible to form a stable government with neither party included. Both were trying to ensure that they form the nucleus of a new government. ¶3. (C/NF) On Sunday, PM Godmanis gave a TV interview preceded by a statement to the nation in which he took all parties of the coalition and the opposition to task and admitted his own failings, especially in taking on too much himself. But, he averred, Latvia must have a functioning government in this time of crisis and said he was committed to doing what was necessary. If the ship is sinking, he said, he would be the last one off. ¶4. (C/NF) TP then said that they agreed with PM and would not support a motion of no confidence but would seek changes in the government. ZZS, after getting more than $45 million worth of subsidies and export credits for dairy farmers out of the cabinet, also agreed to stay. A no confidence motion in the government failed on February 4, 40 - 51. ¶5. (C/NF) The vote does not mark the end. Rather it simply an indication that the four parties in the coalition want to manage the process. It is clear that they are actively engaged behind the scenes looking at possibilities for new or expanded coalitions. Had the vote succeeded, it would have fallen to President Zatlers to choose someone to form a government. By keeping the government in office, the parties can look to either form a new or expanded coalition under Godmanis' leadership or cook up a plan, complete with new PM, to hand the President and limit his options in choosing a new PM. ¶6. (C/NF) The opposition parties are increasingly frustrated. While three of them (New Era, Civic Union, and Society for Different Politics) have formed a cooperation group that would seem to make them larger than any single party in parliament, they lack the means to influence the process as long as the current coalition holds. The opposition parties all want a new coalition with a new coalition agreement rather than being grafted onto the current one. All acknowledge that coalition parties are approaching them separately about possible new combinations. ¶7. (C/NF) Meanwhile, President Zatlers continues to jump in and out of the process. After returning from a week in Davos, he seemed to back off his earlier unyielding support for Godmanis, but only after the current coalition had decided to stay together. He then blamed the politicians for "playing political games" with the process of coalition formation and demanded immediate political stability. He seems unaware that this is the most political of processes and that his January 14 ultimatum is what set off the current round of instability. Government parties are frustrated with his mixed messages and opposition parties are exasperated that he always seems one step behind. ¶8. (C/NF) The public is also growing increasingly weary. They view what is happening as theatre and see no real effort to address the economic problems that increasingly are pinching them. Many employees will soon receive their first pay checks at lower rates of pay. At the same time, there seems to be at least some support for Godmanis still out there. A popular TV news show phone poll after the RIGA 00000074 002 OF 002 confidence vote (not scientific, but still representative) showed that about 53% said they would have voted against the government because they had no patience any more, while about 42% said that they had no confidence in the government, but still trusted Godmanis. The small remainder split between those who said their decision would be based on a assessment of whether the opposition did or did not have a credible plan for a different direction. ¶9. (C/NF) There is no particular decision point ahead in the short term. Instead, there are multiple simultaneous processes. Godmanis will now unveil a plan to reduce the size of cabinet to ten ministries plus the PM. TP has its own plan. The current coalition will debate these options while continuing individual as well as collective discussions with opposition parties. The two processes will of course influence each other. In addition, there are two vacancies in cabinet - culture and agriculture - which need to be filled. And still there are the demands President Zatlers made that he says must be completed by March 31. All of this will occur while parties prepare for local government and European Parliament elections and a possible referendum on dissolution of parliament and early national elections that would follow. ¶10. (C/NF) Our sense is that two biggest questions remain as before - who would be prime minister and whether to bring Russians into government. The chances of Godmanis remaining have perhaps increased slightly. In the no-confidence debate some members of the opposition acknowledged his hard work and commitment to addressing Latvia's problems. The chances of Harmony Center joining government seem lower because Latvian parties feel that ethnic issues (i.e. distrust of Russians) remain a potent motivator in society, especially in times of hardship. The essential reality of the situation, though, was captured in an op-ed in the influential Diena newspaper. "New government, new prime minister, new elections, new Saeima, none of that changes the reality that Latvia's spending for the year is capped (by the IMF agreement) and still no one is talking about how to use the limited resources we have." ROGERS