LATVIAN POLITICAL BATTLELINES: A FOUR-WAY FIGHT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000564 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL LV SUBJECT: LATVIAN POLITICAL BATTLELINES: A FOUR-WAY FIGHT REF: RIGA 533 Classified By: DCM BRUCE ROGERS, REASONS 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: As the Latvian budget winds through debate and negotiation with the IMF, political coalitions are firming up in advance of the October 2010 parliamentary elections. Three centrist parties of the governing coalition are forming a common front, under the banner of the name "Unity." The powerful vice-mayor of Riga, Ainars Slesers has assumed full control of a two-party combination (Latvia's First Party/Latvia's Way),now formally allied with the largely ethnic-Russian Harmony Center. Three-time Prime Minister Andris Skele has also taken full control of the increasingly populist People's Party, criticizing the ruling coalition while remaining the largest party inside the government. The Greens and Farmers Union of Aivars Lembergs, currently on an extended trial for corruption, also remains in government, laying low while growing in relative popularity. "Unity" -------------- ¶2. (C) The New Era party of Prime Minister Dombrovskis (15 of 100 seats in Parliament),the Civic Union (6 MPs) and the Society for Alternative Politics (3 MPs) announced on November 19 that they would campaign on a joint electoral list in the 2010 elections under the banner "Unity", while forgoing a full party merger. Unity leadership have told us that the coalition will campaign on a platform of responsible, transparent government and a firmly Atlanticist foreign policy. Unfortunately for this new coalition, Unity's ambitions likely outweigh their prospects. Of those declaring party preference in October polls (half of those polled),about 26% named one of the three component parties; however, of all those polled, only seven percent said they would definitely vote for a common list of the three parties and another seven percent said they would consider voting for a common list. Clearly, if Unity wishes to form the next government, they will need allies. Looking East -------------- ¶3. (C) The hard-charging Christian fundamentalist Ainars Slesers abandoned any pretense of power-sharing when he shunted aside former Prime Minister Ivars Godmanis for full control of the Latvia's First Party/Latvia's Way (10 MPs) on November 14. Slesers sees Latvia's future in a rebalance of relations with Russia and in attracting Russian investments, trade and tourism. In addition to furthering his own economic interests, this stance is popular with his city council allies, the largely-ethnic Russian left-wing coalition Harmony Center. Slesers adopts a stern and uncompromising public persona, and while his partnership with ethnic Russians is anathema to Latvian nationalists, dire economic circumstances, the backing of Latvia's Lutheran, Catholic and Orthodox churches, and a mighty campaign war chest (Slesers possesses great personal wealth) will all assist him. About seven percent of voters declaring a preference say they will vote for Slesers, and another 27 percent (mostly ethnic Russians, Ukrainians and Belarussians) will support Harmony Center. Slesers has now made public his desire to form a national government with Harmony Center support. Grizzled, Cranky and Ready to Lead -------------- ¶4. (C) Another gruff and "can-do" multi-millionaire, People's Party founder Andris Skele, formally re-assumed control of his party on November 21. The party suffers from low popularity ratings and is facing a bleak future; Skele believes that only he can reverse it's downward spiral. Despite the fact that the party is the largest in the governing coalition (19 seats),Skele's strategy is to criticize the government from within while the campaign continues. Skele promiss low taxes, microenterprise loans, a balanced budget, better public administration, and infrastructure investment, while criticizing the IMF and Scandinavian banks for inflicting hardship on Latvia. Skele hectored his listeners for over an hour at a highly-scripted party congress, promising to clean up the party, with no mention of foreign policy other than a pledge to increase energy ties with "Russia, Scandinavia, Poland and Lithuania". However, the current foreign minister, Maris Riekstins (who joined the party at the height of its fortunes several years back),promised no change in foreign policy under a People's Party-led government. Chairperson of the party's parliamentary group, Vineta Muizniece privately told PolCouns that the People's Party would not align itself with Slesers and Harmony Center. The People's Party, which remains well RIGA 00000564 002 OF 002 organized in the Latvian countryside will need all Skele's skill and wealth to overcome a great deficit of public trust. Only some six percent of voters expressing a preference now say they would vote for the party, leading to speculation that Skele and company may not break the five-percent threshold for parliamentary representation. Under the Radar -------------- ¶5. (C) Meanwhile, the mayor of the port of Ventspils, Aivars Lembergs continues to quietly generate support for the Greens and Farmers Union (17 MP's). Among voters expressing a preference, 14 percent name the Greens and Farmers Union as their pick. Green party co-chair Viesturs Silenieks privately told PolCouns that the party would deliver a positive, reassuring message to voters, and would not make waves as elections approached. He was confident that the party would perform well, and that its constructive, pragmatic approach to economic development was becoming increasingly adopted by other European green parties. Silenieks would make no promises with regard to future government partners after elections, but noted that the party's largely rural constituency would be unhappy with an alliance with the largely urban, ethnic-Russian Harmony Center. ¶6. (C) Comment: It does not now appear likely that Slesers, Skele and Lembergs, will form an open, common electoral front, or seek to bring down the government in advance of elections. Nevertheless, all three of these "oligarchs" are currently conspicuously refraining from criticizing one another. As Unity's Sarmite Elerte puts it: "all three are selling variations of the same brand -- strong individual leadership." Elerte could not say who would lead "Unity" as the standard-bearer, but a collective of like-minded women leaders: New Era Chair Solvita Aboltina, Vaira Paegle (late of the People's Party),Sandra Kalniete of Civic Union, and Elerte herself offer a possible alternative to the "strong hand" brand. Genuine coalition-building will likely take place amongst these four poles after, rather than prior to elections. GARBER